Week 13 Playoff Picture

Suddenly, three days after being ranked as the 5th seed after KC’s loss at Oakland, the Steelers would be out of the Playoffs if the season ended right now.

Don’t panic. The Steelers control their own destiny. Clearest path to the playoffs? Easy: Win out = win the AFC North and grab the #3 AFC seed (with a long shot at #2, if somehow the Broncos drop 2 more games). If the Steelers Win the division at 12-4, a tiebreaker would give the Steelers the #3 seed above the Colts (via head to head matchup).

While it’s still too early to elaborate into different scenarios, it’s just time to know who the real contenders are, either for the Division Title or a Wild Card berth. And, most notably, there are still many remaining games between AFC contenders that could make the Steelers path to the playoffs a little bit easier.

With 11 AFC teams holding winning records, the last 5 weeks feature games among them. And while it is mathematically possible that 7 teams finish with 11 wins (leaving one of them out of the playoffs), it’s footballistically not the most probable scenario.  Most likely, 10 wins should mean the 5^th or 6^th seed, and that’s why the Steelers could get in while winning 3 of their remaining 5 games.

Let’s take a look at how we’re standing and who the other contenders are:

Patriots (9-2) Remaining schedule: at Packers (8-3), at Chargers (7-4), vs. Dolphins (6-5), at Jets (2-9), vs. Bills (6-5).

With the upper hand in the AFC, the Patriots have the largest margin of error within the Conference. They will still hold the #1 seed losing 1 game, and can hurt the chances of the Chargers, Dolphins and Bills, which could help the Steelers.

Broncos (8-3) Remaining schedule: at Chiefs (7-4), vs. Bills (6-5), at Chargers (7-4), at Bengals (7-3-1), vs. Raiders (1-10).

They’re playing for the #2 seed (with a long shot at #1, if the Patriots lose two games and the Broncos win out), and they can manage to completely alter the playoff picture, while playing games against AFC contenders on four consecutive weeks, before the season finale at Oakland. Manning knows the window is closing, and this could help the Steelers greatly, particularly winning their next 4 games.

Colts (7-4) Remaining schedule: vs. Redskins (3-8), at Browns (7-4), vs. Texans (5-6), at Cowboys (8-3), at Titans (2-9). Visiting the Browns and Cowboys, both away, it’s completely possible they may drop one of them. The remaining games vs Redskins and Texans at home, while visiting the Titans, should be all manageable games for them. If they somehow drop 1 more game, this could ease the Steelers way to #3 seed (if the Steelers win out, or drop one and grab the division title at 11-5).

Bengals (7-3-1) Remaining schedule: at Buccaneers (2-9), vs. Steelers (7-4), at Browns (7-4), vs. Broncos (8-3), at Steelers (7-4). That tie can play both ways at the end of the season: the half win they didn’t get could be a difference between making and losing the playoff spot. Three games against division rivals (only hosting one of them, against the Steelers), while hosting the Broncos could make it a hard stretch for the Bengals to overcome. While the Steelers can get help from the Browns and Broncos, they should take care of business and sweep the series (or manage a split as worst case scenario) and hold the upper hand for the Division Title.

Chiefs (7-4) Remaining schedule: vs. Broncos (8-3), at Cardinals (9-2), vs. Raiders (1-10), at Steelers (7-4), vs. Chargers (7-4).

If you’re looking for a brutal stretch, welcome to KC. Their remaining schedule includes hosting the Broncos and Chargers, with visits to Pittsburgh and Arizona coupled with a payback game hosting the Raiders. With four of their last five games against contenders, KC could be 7-6 with 3 games to play. If they get out of their next 3 games with a couple of wins, this team could be hot into contention for the final 2 weeks of the season. They will remember the Just Win Maybe drive at the end of the Raiders game, while dropping it could be what takes the Chiefs out of contention. The Steelers should also get help keeping the Chiefs out of contention, but also should take care of business on that December 21 home game against them.

Chargers (7-4) Remaining schedule: at Ravens (7-4), vs. Patriots (9-2), vs. Broncos (8-3), at 49ers (7-4), at Chiefs (7-4).

And if you’re looking for a killer stretch, welcome to San Diego: All of their five remaining games are against contenders, playing three of them as a visitor (Baltimore, San Francisco and KC), while receiving the Patriots and Broncos on consecutive weeks. If they are somehow able to win 3 of them, they’ll probably get in. Otherwise, they shouldn’t be on the Steelers radar late in the Season.

Ravens (7-4) Remaining schedule: vs. Chargers (7-4), at Dolphins (6-5), vs. Jaguars (1-10), at Texans (5-6), vs. Browns (7-4).

While some of the remaining games for the Ravens could be seen as trap games, they’ll be playing desperate teams in SD and Miami on consecutive weeks, just to end the season playing vs Jacksonville, at Houston and receiving the Browns (who could either be playing for their lives on their season finale, or long gone from the playoffs). The next two games are their season shaping stretch: if they win out those 2 games, the rest of the schedule should be manageable for them, and all will depend on what the Steelers are able to do with their 5 remaining games, so….

Steelers (7-4) Remaining schedule: vs. Saints (4-7), at Bengals (7-3-1), at Falcons (4-7), vs. Chiefs (7-4), vs. Bengals (7-3-1).

While the Steelers are still in the driver’s seat for the #3 AFC seed, they still have tough games against the Bengals (both, home & away), while hosting the Chiefs. Somehow, all 5 games for the Steelers are against teams looking for a playoff spot, and that’s no easy task to handle. While I’d like to say I see the Steelers winning out, even dropping 2 more games could mean a 10-6 record while grabbing the 5^th Seed.

Browns (7-4) Remaining schedule: at Bills (6-5), vs. Colts (7-4), vs. Bengals (7-3-1), at Panthers (3-7-1), at Ravens (7-4). The Browns face a tough stretch, with 4 of their final 5 games being against teams with a winning record. Early losses against Jaguars and Texans could prove costly at the end of the season. Still, even if they somehow lose 2 games before the season finale, they wouldn’t like anything more than playing spoilers for the franchise that took the team out of Cleveland and getting the Ravens out of the playoffs.  Key stretch: next 3 weeks just to know if they’re playing for something for the final two games of the season.

Dolphins (6-5) Remaining schedule: at Jets (2-9), vs. Ravens (7-4), at Patriots (9-2), vs. Vikings (4-7), vs. Jets (2-9). The Dolphins have only 2 remaining games against teams with winning records (NE, BAL). The rest of the way should be clear for them (even though they usually find a way to split games with division rivals). The Dolphins will remember how they dropped leads against the Packers, Lions and Broncos as the season finale approaches.

Bills (6-5) Remaining schedule: vs. Browns (7-4), at Broncos (8-3), vs. Packers (8-3), at Raiders (1-10), at Patriots (9-2)

Still too early to know, but the Bills could host the Browns at Cleveland (due to severe weather conditions the rest of the week). Their remaining schedule is brutal, with only a game against an opponent with a losing record (Raiders). The next 2 weeks will determine if they’re still alive- and shouldn’t be on the Steelers radar then.

Texans (5-6) Remaining schedule: vs. Titans (2-9), at Jaguars (1-10), at Colts (7-4), vs. Ravens (7-4), vs. Jaguars (1-10)

The Texans had a great opportunity to get into the playoff hunt last Sunday, but dropped it against the Bengals (and with that, a chance to play spoiler in favor of the Steelers). Now, at 5-6, they get to play the Titans at home, and two games against the Jaguars at what must be Ws, while hosting the Ravens and traveling to Indianapolis will be difficult games. While the next 2 weeks should boost their record to 7-6, their following games against Indianapolis and Baltimore will both be must-wins for them. Then, they’ll be out of the Steelers radar.

So, who gets in?

Wild Cards: Texans and Bills could be out of contention three weeks from now (with 7 or 8 losses each).Based on the Chiefs and Chargers Schedules, It seems probable that both of them will finish with at least 2 more losses (10-6, at best).

And this is where the Wild Card conversation mixes into the AFC North title. The easiest schedule for the AFC North contenders belongs to the Ravens, and two weeks from now we’ll know if they are capable of winning out and have a shot at the Division Title. The Bengals destiny is tied to the Steelers: If someone is able to sweep the series, that almost means a wild card berth (and the possibility to run for the Division Title). If they split, both could be playing for the Wild Card, clearing the path for the Ravens. The Browns still have a say in this, while playing at Baltimore for the season finale and hosting the Bengals.

While it’s too early to make a forecast, an educated guess would be: Win out, and be #3. Key games are against AFC rivals (due to tiebreaker procedures). Also, if the Steelers win 3 more games, they should be able to grab a Wild Card berth, but one of those 3 wins MUST be against the Bengals.