Two games left and the Steelers control their destiny through the Division Title. Despite no TDs thrown by Ben, Bell being held to under 50 rushing yards and getting no sacks, the Steelers scored early and never looked back. The scoreboard will show a close game, but that wasn’t the way for most of the game.

Protecting a lead usually means a need for running the football, but the Steelers managed to eat the clock by passing the football.

Offense: No 100 yard rushing, no passing TDs, no problem.

• Believe it or not, it was only the 2^nd game this season where Ben didn’t throw for a TD. Still, Roethlisberger spread the football out to 5 receivers, relying mostly on Brown. There could have been more yards and a TD, if not by a couple of overthrows/drops (not by much) to Moore and Bryant. Dislpayed character. I liked his approach while trying to go for it on a 4^th and 1 close to midfield, but someday he needs to really go for it: most teams are aware that this situation is just to try to draw a flag from the defense. At least, he didn’t punt the football in that situation. His confidence in his receivers continues to grow, as shown on throws to AB at the corner, Bryant at the endzone with close coverage, Wheaton on a crossing pattern (who made an unbelievable catch), as well as some throws to Bell and Miller having close coverage. Big throws from him in the 4^th quarter, for the 2^nd consecutive week, led to Steelers long scoring drives.

Bell had what could be called a subpar game by the media, while still being able to gain 119 yards (47 rushing, 72 receiving) and scoring 2 rushing TDs (and setting up a FG after a 44 catch and run).  He was in for all 59 offensive snaps, keeping Harris on the sidelines, with Archer being inactive. 37 counter, the play that gave him more than 100 yards against Cincinnati wasn’t as effective this week, but he was able to score from it against Atlanta. He had 25 touches, and while it doesn’t seem to be a high number, keeping him fresh for the playoffs would be smart, at least he could have a little rest while running 5 receiver sets. Either way, Bell continues having a solid performance this season, and is most likely headed to the Pro Bowl, with –perhaps- some All Pro considerations.

• Brown, Wheaton and Bryant accounted for 18 receptions for 220 yards. Brown and Wheaton excelled on different plays, and a couple of them will probably make the season highlights: AB’s reception at ATL 1 yardline, while tiptoeing to get the catch (upon further review), and Wheaton making a nice display of awareness by grabbing a pass with his backhand just an instant after he turned around to see his QB. Jordy Mercer (Pirate’s shortstop) should take notes on that one. While the statsline will show a couple of drops by Steelers WRs, both were while attempting one-handed catches (by Lance Moore and Martavis Bryant). Heyward Bey played only on Special teams, while Lance Moore had extended playing time (21 snaps, close to Bryant’s 25). An awkward penalty against Antonio Brown for taunting killed a drive, which isn’t common but shouldn’t happen again.
• Our offensive line had a contrasting performance: Keeping Ben clean for most of the game (allowed 1 sack), but struggling to open lanes for Bell (3 tackles for a loss). For most of the game, they gave Ben time to throw, and also made blocks downfield. This unit committed no holding penalties and didn’t have false starts, helping the offense keep drives alive. Once again, the statsline doesn’t show everything: Both Steelers possessions inside the red zone ended with Bell’s rushing TDs, and this unit is responsible for those. Adams once again played for Gilbert, providing good pass protection for most of the game. Despite that, he’ll probably be headed back to the bench as soon as Gilbert is back, missing an opportunity to show growth and readiness.

Defense: Where are our blitzes, part VIII?

• Our front 7 held Atlanta running backs to 70 rushing yards, while playing from behind the entire game (and also added 27 on Ryan’s scrambles). Heyward is making a silent case for a Pro Bowl berth, getting big stops, creating pressure and even batting the ball. Tuitt is also getting a lot of playing time, which is making him get more and more comfortable with his role on defense. Even when they hurried Ryan from time to time, pressure by Steelers DL was non-existent for most of the game.
• Solid performance by ILBs: With Timmons all over the place and a working rotation of Vince Williams and Sean Spence (who combined for big stops on 3^rd down and for a loss), this unit provided a solid performance. Spence and Williams playing at a high level allowed the staff to take it easy on rehabbing Shazier, who played for just a bunch of defensive plays (4, to be exact), on which he managed to make 2 tackles.
• OLBs didn’t create enough pressure. The only sack for the Steelers was made on a brutal hit from Worilds on Ryan, drawing a flag on what, at all sights, was a clean shot. Moats and Jones rotated, but struggled to create pressure. Look for Moats to change to the left side as soon as Harrison gets back. As with ILB, the OLB group can benefit of having a crowded depth chart.
• William Gay provided an early turning point, while returning an INT for a TD (leading to a 13-0 score at the time). Last week he had another pick, called back. Blake was targeted often, but managed to keep the ball in front of him most of the game. McCain showed he isn’t afraid of tackling, while keeping close coverage on his receivers. Everyone wants to have Pro Bowlers at this position (and for the Steelers, that hasn’t happened in a long time), but reliability also comes with non-pro bowlers. If this trio is able to stay healthy and concentrated, Cortez Allen could be the next player headed to the Front Office as soon as the season ends. This unit has been exposed, but not all of it is their fault. Some responsibility lies with the front 7 not being able to create pressure or force opposing QBs into bad throws, and with the Safeties for frequently being caught out of spot.
• Polamalu and Mitchell weren’t a factor once again. Both came down on injuries (and both returned), while being substituted by Will Allen who made his presence felt in the game as soon as he was inserted in the lineup. So far, this unit gets my vote as top underperformers of the year. Shamarko should be getting playing time, but has been relegated to Special Teams.

Special Teams

The kickoff coverage team kicked smart and away from their playmaker. Although they let Hester return a kickoff for 27 yards, he was contained other than that. Suisham converted on 2 field goals (both from 38 yards), and Wing had 3 punts (one of them good for 55 yards, while the other 2 were inside ATL 20 yardline). For the 2^nd consecutive game, the Steelers had a big return (31 yard punt return for AB), and for 2^nd consecutive game the Steelers were unable to capitalize from it, being forced to punt.

Just wondering

• If that Worilds hit had happened against Roethlisberger, any chance of it drawing a flag?
• Where were they at the beginning of the season? So far, Bryant, V Williams, Spence, Moats, Gay, McCain, Blake and Tuitt are having extended playing time, in comparison with where they were at the beginning of the season. Most of them young talent (with Moats and Gay the experienced exceptions), which has played up to the standard (at least as good as the people who were ahead of them at the start of the regular Season).
• And, suddenly, all rumors about Ben’s injured wrist/hand disappeared, despite amid reports of being broken.
• Settling for FGs instead of getting into the endzone has become an unpleasant habit for the Offense, while having fast starts crossing the field, but falling short to score TDs. Offensive scheme and gameplan is designed, sometimes, to get things going after a couple of drives. But that only results when you can get and sustain a lead (which happened thanks to Gay’s pick-six). This same approach can work against KC, who don’t have a dangerous passing game, but must be fixed before season finale.
• Still wondering why isn’t Coach LeBeau using more blitzes, while giving opposing QBs enough time for their receivers to get open.
• No KC receiver has scored a TD so far this Season. Wonder what the odds makers think about their chances of getting it this week.
• Kudos to Haley and Ben, for that 4^th and 1 conversion to end the game. Aggressive playcalling with great execution. Similar approach as taken against Baltimore (week 9)
• Buzz around the league: Bell having a subpar game, being a human. After gaining 117 total yards and scoring 2 TDs? Really?
• Shazier, McCullers and Shamarko Thomas played a combined 10 snaps on Defense.
• And that week 17 game vs Cincinnati looks more and more probable to get pushed into primetime (6^th time for the Steelers this season).
• … which leads to growing asking prices for tickets to get into that game at Heinz Field.
• After a couple of disappointing seasons hoping for help during the last 5 games, finally, the Steelers approach the stretch controlling their own destiny.

What comes next?

The Steelers receive desperate Kansas City Chiefs, who are playing for their lives: one more loss, and they will be eliminated from playoff contention. KC hasn’t had a receiver catching a TD all season (since 1950, no team has had a complete season without having a WR catching a TD pass). Can the Steelers keep that streak alive? No matter what happens with this game, if the Steelers win vs Cincinnati, they will get in, at least as a Wild Card, while winning both remaining games means Division Title. I’ll break out these scenarios later this week, on a reviewed Week 16 playoff picture.

Meanwhile, the Ravens visit the Houston Texans, Cincinatti will host Denver Broncos, and Cleveland visits Carolina (which is still alive).

By the Numbers

1^st winning season for the Steelers since 2011

2^nd in the NFL: Roethlisberger in Passing Yards, Bell in rushing yards

3 interceptions returned for TDs by William Gay this season, a Steelers Record

5 consecutive games where the Steelers commit less than 5 penalties

8 Games featuring 300+ yards passing by Roethlisberger this season

30 Consecutive games with 5+ receptions and 50+ receiving yards by Antonio Brown, an NFL record

115 Receptions by Antonio Brown, a Steelers record (for 1498, one yard shy of tying his own Steelers record from last season)

5003 passing yards –  Roethlisberger’s projection for 2014 season.

Here is the player participation data for the Steelers during Sunday’s win over Atlanta. On offense, there wasn’t much of a change in personnel usage from the previous week. Mike Adams once again played all 60 snaps at right tackle for the injured Marcus Gilbert. Michael Palmer got his 2 snaps, while Matt Spaeth saw a slight reduction in plays. Darrius Heyward-Bey was limited to special teams duty, and Josh Harris didn’t see any carries.

[wpdatatable id=32]

On defense, Stephon Tuitt started at defensive end again, and Cam Thomas saw a smaller role for the second week in a row. Dan McCullers saw 6 snaps, which is becoming the norm for him these past few weeks. Brice McCain saw more playing time than he has since week 10. Ryan Shazier’s return to the defense was for only 4 downs.

[wpdatatable id=33]

The inactives for today’s game in Atlanta have been announced, and the Falcons, who labeled Julio Jones as a game time decision, have penciled him in as a scratch today. Literally.

https://twitter.com/Edwerderespn/status/544166893431848961

Here is the full list of their inactives:

WR  J. Jones

S  W. Moore

QB  S. Renfree

CB  R. Alford

LB  T. Starr

T  J. Scott

LB  J. Anderson

There is one surprising inclusion on the Steelers inactive list. OT Marcus Gilbert is being kept out today. Gilbert is coming back from an ankle injury, and he practiced fully as the starter for two days this week. With Gilbert being out, the Steelers will start Mike Adams next to David DeCastro for the third week in a row.

Here is the complete list:

QB Landry Jones

RB Dri Archer

WR Justin Brown

CB Ike Taylor

DE Clifton Geathers

OT Marcus Gilbert

LB James Harrison

The Steelers took a couple of steps toward the Playoffs in week 14 of the regular season. Their win against the Bengals combined with losses by 5 of the potential contenders for a Wild Card berth, puts them in better position to get into the postseason (either as Division Champions or a Wild Card). Currently, the Steelers hold the AFC #5 seed.

Once again, the Steelers control their destiny: win out and grab the AFC north Division title.

The same 12 teams from week 14 are still alive in the playoff hunt going into week 15. Each team’s situation, divided in 4 categories:

• Control their path to division title: New England, Denver, Indianapolis,Bengals, and Steelers.
• Control their fate for a Wild Card berth, need help for division title: Ravens, Chargers.
• Control their destiny for a Wild Card, no chance at Division Title: Chiefs
• Need help (Winning out, no guarantee they will get in) Browns, Texans, Bills, Dolphins.

Here’s what happened in week 14, in terms of Playoff seeding: Of 12 contenders still alive in the AFC, half of them won and half lost.

• All 4 current AFC Division Leaders had a shot at contenders, and 3 of them won their games: New England handled San Diego, Indianapolis won with a last minute drive over Cleveland, and Denver won vs Buffalo. Only one division leader lost (Cincinnati against Pittsburgh).
• Outcome this week for the rest of the AFC contenders: Baltimore won at Miami, Houston won vs Jacksonville, and Kansas City lost at Arizona.

How do the outcomes of this week’s games affect the Playoff picture?

• The Steelers win against the Bengals mantains them in control of their fate, while it also opens the door to the Ravens for a Division title (if they win out and the Steelers lose at least one more). If both, the Steelers and Ravens end up winning out, at 11-5, the Steelers will be Division Champions based on Division record.
• New England and Denver win, good news for the Steelers. With the #1 and #2 AFC seeds practically out of reach for Pittsburgh, watching these two teams fight for seeding means both will remain competing with their starters for at least two more weeks while playing for the #1 spot. The Patriots still have on their schedule games against the Dolphins and Bills, and Denver still faces the Chargers and Bengals.
• Losses by Buffalo, San Diego and Kansas City, potential competitors for a Wild Card berth.
• Baltimore beating Dolphins was a tricky pick: while it closes the competition for the AFC North title, keeping in mind Baltimore’s remaining schedule (16-23 combined), it can potentially benefit the Steelers for the Wild Card race (because the Dolphins had a stronger Conference record, which is a tiebreaking criteria).
• Indianapolis beating Cleveland: tricky pick, too. If the Steelers are able to handle their own business and win out, a loss by Indy could have meant a #3 seed for Pittsburgh. For the Wild card race, a loss by Cleveland benefits the Steelers.

A first approach at different scenarios, based on the outcome of the Steelers remaining games:

• Lose all 3 remaining games (8-8); out of contention.
• Lose 2 games (9-7): A slim chance, while in some scenarios the Steelers could get in based on the outcome of several games.
• Lose 1 game (10-6): Most likely would get in, by winning some tiebreakers (also could be held out, depending on the outcome of several games and who they end up tied with). The Steelers would boost their chances if the loss is against Atlanta, and win both vs KC and Cincinnati.
• Win out (11-5): Division Title, without mattering whatever happens in other games. Their seeding depends on Indianapolis: if they lose one more game, the Steelers would be #3, if they don’t, Pittsburgh will be #4. A long shot at #1 and #2 is still possible, if somehow NE and/or Denver get into a 2 or 3 week slump.

With 11 games still to be played among AFC contenders, a universe of scenarios are still possible (all of them can be simulated here)

Week 15 features 4 games between 8 of the AFC contenders:

• Dolphins at Patriots, Texans at Colts, Bengals at Browns, Broncos at Chargers
• Other games involving AFC contenders: Steelers at Falcons, Raiders at Chiefs, Jaguars at Ravens, Packers at Bills.

*A full breakdown of the remaining schedule involving AFC contenders can be found at the end of this article.

A quick look at each contender’s scenarios (NFL Official standings and Playoff Picture, here):

CURRENT DIVISION LEADERS:

Patriots (10-3) Remaining schedule: vs. Dolphins (7-6), at Jets (2-11), vs. Bills (7-6). Currently, on the driver’s seat for the #1 AFC seed, holding the tiebreaker over Denver (head to head).

• They can help the Steelers: Patriots won against the Chargers, and can drop both Dolphins and Bills to 7 loses, most likely eliminating them  from contention.

Broncos (10-3) Remaining schedule: at Chargers (8-5), at Bengals (8-4-1), vs. Raiders (2-11). Still playing for the #1 seed (if they win one more game than NE). They need to beat the Chargers to maintain control of the Division.

• They can help the Steelers by: Already sent the Bills to 6 loses, and still have a chance to compromise Chargers and Bengals chances if they are able to beat them, both of them competing with the Steelers for playoff spots.

Colts (9-4) Remaining schedule: vs. Texans (7-6), at Cowboys (9-4), at Titans (2-11). Can clinch the Division this week if they beat the Texans. With a game against the Cowboys, a loss is still possible, and that could open the door for the Steelers to be AFC #3 if they win out.

• They can help the Steelers by: Beating the Texans will most likely eliminate them from playoff contention, and that eases the Steelers path to a Wild Card berth. Although, that can play two ways for the Steelers, remembering that another Colts loss will give the Steelers #3 seed if they win out (Steelers own the head to head tiebreaker).

Bengals (8-4-1) Remaining schedule: at Browns (7-6), vs. Broncos (10-3), at Steelers (8-5). They have the hardest remaining schedule among AFC North teams. While they remain in control of their destiny if they are able to win out, they dropped advantage over division foes. All of their upcoming games are against winning teams playing for their lives (Steelers and Browns), or a better seeding (Broncos). A win against Cleveland will most likely eliminate them from Playoff contention, but could also mean the Steelers will still be ½ game behind them for the division title.

CURRENT WILD CARDS

Steelers (8-5) Remaining schedule: at Falcons (5-8), vs. Chiefs (7-6), vs. Bengals (8-4-1). The Steelers are still in control of their own destiny, while winning out will give them the AFC North title. The win against the Bengals was huge. It boosted their division and conference record, while keeping them within striking distance of the Division Title..

• Losing one more game could still let them get into the Playoffs, with a stronger possibility if it’s against Atlanta (meaning the Steelers conference record would be 9-3, beating most opponents with similar record on tiebreakers criteria).
• The Steelers home games versus the Chiefs and Bengals are key. Winning at least one of those could keep them alive, and with even a slim chance to get in at 9-7.

Chargers (8-5) Remaining schedule: vs. Broncos (10-3), at 49ers (7-6), at Chiefs (7-6). A brutal schedule, with all remaining games against contenders. Most probably, they will be facing a SF team playing for their lives, and a Chiefs team that could either be eliminated since week 16, or figting for a Wild Card berth on week 17. Losing to the Broncos will mean they can only play for a Wild Card berth.

 STILL IN THE PLAYOFF RACE

Ravens (8-5) Remaining schedule: vs. Jaguars (2-11), at Texans (7-6), vs. Browns (7-6). They control their destiny for a Wild Card, and need the Steelers and Bengals to lose one more game each at least to have a shot at the Division Title. They handled their hardest remaining game last Sunday against the Dolphins, and while on paper they have the easiest schedule of the AFC North, those games at Houston and against the Browns will be critical for them, since they both could still be in playoff contention coming weeks 16 & 17.

Texans (7-6) Remaining schedule: at Colts (9-4), vs. Ravens (7-6), vs. Jaguars (2-11). While still alive for their Division title, they need to beat the Colts this week for that to be an option after next Sunday. Their way for a Wild Card berth relies on the outcome of many games if they finish with 9 wins (and they can still get in at 9-7). If they somehow beat the Colts, their approach against the Ravens will be a must-win, which could benefit the Steelers. Also, keep in mind that the Steelers own the tiebreaker over the Colts, so a win by the Texans over the Colts could benefit the Steelers too. Can be major spoilers in favor of the Steelers.

They can help the Steelers chances by beating the Ravens. If the Texans get into week 16 after beating the Colts, they’ll still be playing for a Division title, and will fight for their lives against the Ravens. Can also help the Steelers have a legitimate shot at #3 if they beat the Colts.

Dolphins (7-6) Remaining schedule: at Patriots (10-3), vs. Vikings (6-7), vs. Jets (2-11). Just blew a golden opportunity to hold the driver’s seat into the Wild Card berth. Still with a long shot at the Division title, for which they must win out and hope the Patriots lose all 3 remaining games. They no longer control their destiny, as winning out doesn’t’ guarantee a playoff spot for them.

Chiefs (7-6) Remaining schedule vs. Raiders (2-11), at Steelers (8-5), vs. Chargers (8-2). After 3 straight loses, they can only play for a Wild Card berth and still control their path into it: win out, and get a WC. Games against the Steelers and Chargers (weeks 16 & 17 respectively) will be critical, such as handling their business against the Raiders this week (who already beat them a couple of weeks ago).

Bills (7-6) Remaining schedule: vs. Packers (10-3), at Raiders (2-11), at Patriots (10-3). They no longer control their destiny, while they have a 4-6 conference record, and will lose most tiebreakers even if they win out. At 7 loses, could be eliminated if they lose to the Packers this Sunday.

Browns (7-6) Remaining schedule: vs. Bengals (8-4-1), at Panthers (4-8-1), at Ravens (7-6). Playing for their lives against the Bengals, they can’t afford to lose one more game. Could be major spoilers if they beat the Bengals or/and Ravens.

 So, who gets in?

While the AFC north remains in open competition, all other Divisions can have a front runner or winner after week 15. With 9 teams fighting for 3 spots, those who have a 7-6 record right now are against the wall: one more loss and they could be eliminated from contention.

• Most likely headed to the postseason and division title: New England, Denver and Indianapolis are most likely headed to the Post Season.
• Still in the Driver’s seat for division title: Steelers, Bengals
• In the driver’s seat for a Wild Card, need help for division title: Ravens, Chargers.
• Control their destiny for a Wild Card: Chiefs
• Need help (Winning out, no guarantee they will get in) Browns, Texans, Bills, Dolphins.

Steelers must take care of their own business, win out and grab the Division title. Losing one more game probably means a Wild Card, if that loss is against Atlanta. There are some scenarios in which a 9-7 Steelers can qualify for the playoffs, but depends on a lot of different outcomes from games involving AFC rivals.

• Good news: there are still 11 more games between AFC contenders, meaning, at least, 11 more Ls for contenders (assuming no ties).
• Keep an eye on: spoilers. Teams with losing records can always pull an upset on contenders.

What could happen after week 15:

• Bills, Dolphins and Texans with a real possibility of falling to 7-7
• The loser of Browns-Bengals will be looking for tons of help to get in.
• Patriots and Colts with a legitimate chance of closing in a Division title
• If the Steelers, Chiefs and Ravens are able to take care of business, all of them will get one step closer to the Playoffs.
• Broncos vs Chargers: If Denver wins, they will win their Division Title, and the Chargers will no longer control their destiny. Otherwise, both will remain in control of their destiny for a Wild Card, with the Broncos holding the upper hand at the Division Title.

——————————————————————————–

The rest of the Schedule, week by week, for AFC Contenders after week 15:

Week 16 features just 3 games between AFC contenders: Chiefs at Steelers, Ravens at Texans, Broncos at Bengals

And 6 teams play against non-AFC contenders: Chargers at 49ers, Vikings at Dolphins, Browns at Panthers, Patriots at Jets, Bills at Raiders, Colts at Cowboys

Week 17 features 4 games between AFC contenders: Bengals at Steelers, Browns at Ravens, Chargers at Chiefs, Bills at Patriots

And 4 teams play against non-AFC contenders: Colts at Titans, Jaguars at Texans, Jets at Dolphins, Raiders at Broncos

Below you can see the tables for the Steelers participation data on offense and defense from yesterday’s win over the Bengals. On offense, Mike Adams played all 73 snaps at right tackle, in place of Marcus Gilbert, who was out with an ankle injury.

Matt Spaeth saw his playing time double from the previous week, as did Will Johnson. Troy Polamalu’s offfensive snap was in the victory formation. Recently activated running back Josh Harris saw five plays and touched the ball on four of them. For anyone wondering at home, Darrius Heyward-Bay did not contribute on offense in Cincinnati. His only playing time was on special teams.

[wpdatatable id=30]

On the defensive side of the ball, Jarvis Jones returned to action and was rotated in for 34 plays. Steve McLendon also returned from a long absence. The starting nose tackle saw the field for 25 snaps, which is about average for Steelers nose. Stephon Tuitt got his first start at defensive end this week, replacing Brett Keisel who suffered a season ending injury last week.

[wpdatatable id=31]