The Steelers took a couple of steps toward the Playoffs in week 14 of the regular season. Their win against the Bengals combined with losses by 5 of the potential contenders for a Wild Card berth, puts them in better position to get into the postseason (either as Division Champions or a Wild Card). Currently, the Steelers hold the AFC #5 seed.

Once again, the Steelers control their destiny: win out and grab the AFC north Division title.

The same 12 teams from week 14 are still alive in the playoff hunt going into week 15. Each team’s situation, divided in 4 categories:

• Control their path to division title: New England, Denver, Indianapolis,Bengals, and Steelers.
• Control their fate for a Wild Card berth, need help for division title: Ravens, Chargers.
• Control their destiny for a Wild Card, no chance at Division Title: Chiefs
• Need help (Winning out, no guarantee they will get in) Browns, Texans, Bills, Dolphins.

Here’s what happened in week 14, in terms of Playoff seeding: Of 12 contenders still alive in the AFC, half of them won and half lost.

• All 4 current AFC Division Leaders had a shot at contenders, and 3 of them won their games: New England handled San Diego, Indianapolis won with a last minute drive over Cleveland, and Denver won vs Buffalo. Only one division leader lost (Cincinnati against Pittsburgh).
• Outcome this week for the rest of the AFC contenders: Baltimore won at Miami, Houston won vs Jacksonville, and Kansas City lost at Arizona.

How do the outcomes of this week’s games affect the Playoff picture?

• The Steelers win against the Bengals mantains them in control of their fate, while it also opens the door to the Ravens for a Division title (if they win out and the Steelers lose at least one more). If both, the Steelers and Ravens end up winning out, at 11-5, the Steelers will be Division Champions based on Division record.
• New England and Denver win, good news for the Steelers. With the #1 and #2 AFC seeds practically out of reach for Pittsburgh, watching these two teams fight for seeding means both will remain competing with their starters for at least two more weeks while playing for the #1 spot. The Patriots still have on their schedule games against the Dolphins and Bills, and Denver still faces the Chargers and Bengals.
• Losses by Buffalo, San Diego and Kansas City, potential competitors for a Wild Card berth.
• Baltimore beating Dolphins was a tricky pick: while it closes the competition for the AFC North title, keeping in mind Baltimore’s remaining schedule (16-23 combined), it can potentially benefit the Steelers for the Wild Card race (because the Dolphins had a stronger Conference record, which is a tiebreaking criteria).
• Indianapolis beating Cleveland: tricky pick, too. If the Steelers are able to handle their own business and win out, a loss by Indy could have meant a #3 seed for Pittsburgh. For the Wild card race, a loss by Cleveland benefits the Steelers.

A first approach at different scenarios, based on the outcome of the Steelers remaining games:

• Lose all 3 remaining games (8-8); out of contention.
• Lose 2 games (9-7): A slim chance, while in some scenarios the Steelers could get in based on the outcome of several games.
• Lose 1 game (10-6): Most likely would get in, by winning some tiebreakers (also could be held out, depending on the outcome of several games and who they end up tied with). The Steelers would boost their chances if the loss is against Atlanta, and win both vs KC and Cincinnati.
• Win out (11-5): Division Title, without mattering whatever happens in other games. Their seeding depends on Indianapolis: if they lose one more game, the Steelers would be #3, if they don’t, Pittsburgh will be #4. A long shot at #1 and #2 is still possible, if somehow NE and/or Denver get into a 2 or 3 week slump.

With 11 games still to be played among AFC contenders, a universe of scenarios are still possible (all of them can be simulated here)

Week 15 features 4 games between 8 of the AFC contenders:

• Dolphins at Patriots, Texans at Colts, Bengals at Browns, Broncos at Chargers
• Other games involving AFC contenders: Steelers at Falcons, Raiders at Chiefs, Jaguars at Ravens, Packers at Bills.

*A full breakdown of the remaining schedule involving AFC contenders can be found at the end of this article.

A quick look at each contender’s scenarios (NFL Official standings and Playoff Picture, here):

CURRENT DIVISION LEADERS:

Patriots (10-3) Remaining schedule: vs. Dolphins (7-6), at Jets (2-11), vs. Bills (7-6). Currently, on the driver’s seat for the #1 AFC seed, holding the tiebreaker over Denver (head to head).

• They can help the Steelers: Patriots won against the Chargers, and can drop both Dolphins and Bills to 7 loses, most likely eliminating them  from contention.

Broncos (10-3) Remaining schedule: at Chargers (8-5), at Bengals (8-4-1), vs. Raiders (2-11). Still playing for the #1 seed (if they win one more game than NE). They need to beat the Chargers to maintain control of the Division.

• They can help the Steelers by: Already sent the Bills to 6 loses, and still have a chance to compromise Chargers and Bengals chances if they are able to beat them, both of them competing with the Steelers for playoff spots.

Colts (9-4) Remaining schedule: vs. Texans (7-6), at Cowboys (9-4), at Titans (2-11). Can clinch the Division this week if they beat the Texans. With a game against the Cowboys, a loss is still possible, and that could open the door for the Steelers to be AFC #3 if they win out.

• They can help the Steelers by: Beating the Texans will most likely eliminate them from playoff contention, and that eases the Steelers path to a Wild Card berth. Although, that can play two ways for the Steelers, remembering that another Colts loss will give the Steelers #3 seed if they win out (Steelers own the head to head tiebreaker).

Bengals (8-4-1) Remaining schedule: at Browns (7-6), vs. Broncos (10-3), at Steelers (8-5). They have the hardest remaining schedule among AFC North teams. While they remain in control of their destiny if they are able to win out, they dropped advantage over division foes. All of their upcoming games are against winning teams playing for their lives (Steelers and Browns), or a better seeding (Broncos). A win against Cleveland will most likely eliminate them from Playoff contention, but could also mean the Steelers will still be ½ game behind them for the division title.

CURRENT WILD CARDS

Steelers (8-5) Remaining schedule: at Falcons (5-8), vs. Chiefs (7-6), vs. Bengals (8-4-1). The Steelers are still in control of their own destiny, while winning out will give them the AFC North title. The win against the Bengals was huge. It boosted their division and conference record, while keeping them within striking distance of the Division Title..

• Losing one more game could still let them get into the Playoffs, with a stronger possibility if it’s against Atlanta (meaning the Steelers conference record would be 9-3, beating most opponents with similar record on tiebreakers criteria).
• The Steelers home games versus the Chiefs and Bengals are key. Winning at least one of those could keep them alive, and with even a slim chance to get in at 9-7.

Chargers (8-5) Remaining schedule: vs. Broncos (10-3), at 49ers (7-6), at Chiefs (7-6). A brutal schedule, with all remaining games against contenders. Most probably, they will be facing a SF team playing for their lives, and a Chiefs team that could either be eliminated since week 16, or figting for a Wild Card berth on week 17. Losing to the Broncos will mean they can only play for a Wild Card berth.

 STILL IN THE PLAYOFF RACE

Ravens (8-5) Remaining schedule: vs. Jaguars (2-11), at Texans (7-6), vs. Browns (7-6). They control their destiny for a Wild Card, and need the Steelers and Bengals to lose one more game each at least to have a shot at the Division Title. They handled their hardest remaining game last Sunday against the Dolphins, and while on paper they have the easiest schedule of the AFC North, those games at Houston and against the Browns will be critical for them, since they both could still be in playoff contention coming weeks 16 & 17.

Texans (7-6) Remaining schedule: at Colts (9-4), vs. Ravens (7-6), vs. Jaguars (2-11). While still alive for their Division title, they need to beat the Colts this week for that to be an option after next Sunday. Their way for a Wild Card berth relies on the outcome of many games if they finish with 9 wins (and they can still get in at 9-7). If they somehow beat the Colts, their approach against the Ravens will be a must-win, which could benefit the Steelers. Also, keep in mind that the Steelers own the tiebreaker over the Colts, so a win by the Texans over the Colts could benefit the Steelers too. Can be major spoilers in favor of the Steelers.

They can help the Steelers chances by beating the Ravens. If the Texans get into week 16 after beating the Colts, they’ll still be playing for a Division title, and will fight for their lives against the Ravens. Can also help the Steelers have a legitimate shot at #3 if they beat the Colts.

Dolphins (7-6) Remaining schedule: at Patriots (10-3), vs. Vikings (6-7), vs. Jets (2-11). Just blew a golden opportunity to hold the driver’s seat into the Wild Card berth. Still with a long shot at the Division title, for which they must win out and hope the Patriots lose all 3 remaining games. They no longer control their destiny, as winning out doesn’t’ guarantee a playoff spot for them.

Chiefs (7-6) Remaining schedule vs. Raiders (2-11), at Steelers (8-5), vs. Chargers (8-2). After 3 straight loses, they can only play for a Wild Card berth and still control their path into it: win out, and get a WC. Games against the Steelers and Chargers (weeks 16 & 17 respectively) will be critical, such as handling their business against the Raiders this week (who already beat them a couple of weeks ago).

Bills (7-6) Remaining schedule: vs. Packers (10-3), at Raiders (2-11), at Patriots (10-3). They no longer control their destiny, while they have a 4-6 conference record, and will lose most tiebreakers even if they win out. At 7 loses, could be eliminated if they lose to the Packers this Sunday.

Browns (7-6) Remaining schedule: vs. Bengals (8-4-1), at Panthers (4-8-1), at Ravens (7-6). Playing for their lives against the Bengals, they can’t afford to lose one more game. Could be major spoilers if they beat the Bengals or/and Ravens.

 So, who gets in?

While the AFC north remains in open competition, all other Divisions can have a front runner or winner after week 15. With 9 teams fighting for 3 spots, those who have a 7-6 record right now are against the wall: one more loss and they could be eliminated from contention.

• Most likely headed to the postseason and division title: New England, Denver and Indianapolis are most likely headed to the Post Season.
• Still in the Driver’s seat for division title: Steelers, Bengals
• In the driver’s seat for a Wild Card, need help for division title: Ravens, Chargers.
• Control their destiny for a Wild Card: Chiefs
• Need help (Winning out, no guarantee they will get in) Browns, Texans, Bills, Dolphins.

Steelers must take care of their own business, win out and grab the Division title. Losing one more game probably means a Wild Card, if that loss is against Atlanta. There are some scenarios in which a 9-7 Steelers can qualify for the playoffs, but depends on a lot of different outcomes from games involving AFC rivals.

• Good news: there are still 11 more games between AFC contenders, meaning, at least, 11 more Ls for contenders (assuming no ties).
• Keep an eye on: spoilers. Teams with losing records can always pull an upset on contenders.

What could happen after week 15:

• Bills, Dolphins and Texans with a real possibility of falling to 7-7
• The loser of Browns-Bengals will be looking for tons of help to get in.
• Patriots and Colts with a legitimate chance of closing in a Division title
• If the Steelers, Chiefs and Ravens are able to take care of business, all of them will get one step closer to the Playoffs.
• Broncos vs Chargers: If Denver wins, they will win their Division Title, and the Chargers will no longer control their destiny. Otherwise, both will remain in control of their destiny for a Wild Card, with the Broncos holding the upper hand at the Division Title.

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The rest of the Schedule, week by week, for AFC Contenders after week 15:

Week 16 features just 3 games between AFC contenders: Chiefs at Steelers, Ravens at Texans, Broncos at Bengals

And 6 teams play against non-AFC contenders: Chargers at 49ers, Vikings at Dolphins, Browns at Panthers, Patriots at Jets, Bills at Raiders, Colts at Cowboys

Week 17 features 4 games between AFC contenders: Bengals at Steelers, Browns at Ravens, Chargers at Chiefs, Bills at Patriots

And 4 teams play against non-AFC contenders: Colts at Titans, Jaguars at Texans, Jets at Dolphins, Raiders at Broncos

Below you can see the tables for the Steelers participation data on offense and defense from yesterday’s win over the Bengals. On offense, Mike Adams played all 73 snaps at right tackle, in place of Marcus Gilbert, who was out with an ankle injury.

Matt Spaeth saw his playing time double from the previous week, as did Will Johnson. Troy Polamalu’s offfensive snap was in the victory formation. Recently activated running back Josh Harris saw five plays and touched the ball on four of them. For anyone wondering at home, Darrius Heyward-Bay did not contribute on offense in Cincinnati. His only playing time was on special teams.

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On the defensive side of the ball, Jarvis Jones returned to action and was rotated in for 34 plays. Steve McLendon also returned from a long absence. The starting nose tackle saw the field for 25 snaps, which is about average for Steelers nose. Stephon Tuitt got his first start at defensive end this week, replacing Brett Keisel who suffered a season ending injury last week.

[wpdatatable id=31]

Another win against a contender has the Steelers sitting at the 5th seed in the AFC playoff picture. Keeping aside current Division leaders, 5 of 8 contenders looking for a Wild Card berth, or chasing division leaders, lost this Sunday (Browns, Bills, Dolphins, Chargers, and the Chiefs).

With 3 games left, the Steelers control their own destiny, while winning out will let them grab the Division Title. So far, the Steelers have locked, at least, their 11^th consecutive non-losing season (since a 6-10 record in 2004). Playoff picture and scenarios will be discussed further, in a separate article later this week.

This game was a close one until mid-4^th quarter, when the Steelers were able to gain control of it and put it out of the Bengals reach. While in the 1^st half the Steelers had to settle for a couple of FGs after promising drives, the Steelers defense kept it close enough to be within reach as late as the beginning of the 4^th quarter, when most of the game’s turning points happened.

Turning points

• Start of the 4^th quarter. Just after the Bengals scored on an 81 yard pass to AJ Green to make it 21-17, Le’veon Bell produced a 53 yard run, a momentum changer in the game. That run led to a Steelers FG to make it 21-20.
• 4^th quarter, shortly after the Steelers scored that field goal, Andy Dalton called a read option play, where he fumbled the football. Credit to Moats’ awareness, as he recovered the fumble, giving the Steelers great field position (Cincinnati’s 24 yardline), leading to a Steelers TD (28-21).
• After that touchdown from the Steelers, the Bengals series was stalled at their 42. They punted the football and were able to down it at the Steelers 6 yardline. On the next play, Ben thew a playaction pass to Martavis Bryant’s for 94 yards, 35-21 Steelers, who never looked back again.
• If the Bengals had a shot at returning to the game, it would be with a long pass. Andy Dalton attempted one more to M Sanu, but Blake and Mitchell combined to break up the pass, while Tuitt was getting a clean shot at Dalton (who was injured on that play). After that play, the Bengals weren’t able to do any more damage to the Steelers.

Offense: Running effectively = effective playaction passes.

• Too much talk about Ben Roethlisberger’s hand this week. Even though he missed some throws early in the game, he was able to complete 64% of his attempts to 8 different receivers. Accuracy on slant routes would have been impossible with an injured wrist (which were called often on 3^rd downs), while he also completed deep, accurate throws to Brown and Bryant (the later traveled almost 50 yards in the air). Injury concerns aside, Ben was able to gain confidence and spread it to his receivers.
• Bell is making a case for NFL Offensive MVP (or League MVP?). Not dressing Archer for the game meant the Steelers would give Bell as many runs as he could possibly handle if the game was close until the 4^th quarter. He had 32 touches (26 runs, 6 catches) for a combined 235 yards an 3 touchdowns. He’s a patient back who knows when to wait for a lane to open, as well as running with determination into it when he sees one. This skillset is a very valuable asset in December, and will be in the Playoffs, too (If there’s such a fate for the Steelers). Of the 3 Steelers remaining games, only next week will be indoors (@ Atlanta), with the other 2 being played in the elements, at Heinz Field. By no means have I believed the football should be taken away from Bell in close games, but Harris and Archer should somehow get touches as soon as a game is away from the opponent’s reach. While Bell’s last TD put the game away, it was probably a good occasion to give Harris the football (he had 4 runs for 9 yards on the last Steelers series). It keeps Bell out of risk of injury, while giving them reps in real-game action. Bell’s health and durability will be key for this team’s chances to get into the Playoffs (and compete in them if so).
• Receivers accounted for 16 receptions, 286 yards, 6 3^rd down conversions and a TD. Antonio Brown was double covered for portions of the game, but still was able to grab 9 passes for 117 yards. While some expect Brown to score each week, the plays he’s able to make are just as valuable: setting up great field position and converting 3^rd downs helped the team keep it close for 3 quarters, and opened up space for other players to score. Credit to the running game on that Bryant TD: Cincinnati was expecting a run, while being aggressive. Their safeties were in bad position to cover a deep pass, while they bit on the playaction. Kudos to Bryant, his speed and concentration led to the longest pass this season in the NFL, and of all gamechangers this one was probably the most important. Wheaton had his chances too, and while he wasn’t targeted often, he produced when his number was called. His route running has improved, and his awareness seems to be gaining momentum (as shown on an early 3^rd down conversion). Lance Moore has had very few chances this season, but has came up big with most of his grabs. Remember he was brought as a safety net, just in case Wheaton or Bryant weren’t up to the task. As a 4^th receiver, he’s understood his role so far.
• Miller and Spaeth’s biggest contributions came in the running game, both of them making excellent blocks on counter plays. Their tempo with their offensive line and the running back was outstanding, developing the lead block on most of those runs. While they combined for only 3 catches, good for 14 yards, Miller scored 8 points (the first Steelers TD and the 2 point conversion).
• The offensive line unit is responsible for wearing down the Bengals, and letting the Steelers score during the 4^th quarter. The offensive line kept Ben clean and gave him time to throw, while opening lanes to enable a strong running game. This was only the 2^nd time this season when Roethlisberger didn’t get sacked.  DeCastro, W Johnson, Miller and Spaeth featured a counter play that the Steelers ran over and over and over again, to the left side, on which Bell was able to gain more than 100 yards. Mike Adams showed improvement, as expected, not letting the pocket collapse or close, while Foster, Pouncey and Beachum had also an outstanding performance.

Defense: Great stopping the run and limiting 3^rd down conversions. But what’s going on with our secondary?

• Defensive linemen excelled against the run, but failed to create havoc on passing plays. This unit had one sack (Heyward, the team leader with 5) and stopped the run successfully, allowing the Bengals running backs to run for only 63 yards, who didn’t have a run longer than 15 yards. On most attempts Dalton had time to throw, even though Heyward and Tuitt managed to pressure and hit him occasionally. Going into next week’s game, getting to the QB is a must for this unit. Getting McLendon back helped stopping the run.
• Timmons and Spence both had critical tackles on 3^rd down, keeping the Bengals out of conversion success, while Moats and Worilds recovered a fumble each. Moats had 2 sacks on his most extended gameplay since Harrison was introduced in the first team defense. Timmons was caught out of spot on Dalton’s TD run, which isn’t expected from a veteran LB. Keeping that single play aside, Timmons had a solid performance.
• Steelers starting CBs blew coverage on their 2 passing TDs: Gay bit on a playaction on the pass to Gresham, and Ike Taylor was absolutely lost, overrun and torched on that long AJ Green TD reception. Being physical on AJ Green had resulted in containing him for past couple of seasons, but clearly Talyor was not up for the competition, for the 2^nd week in a row. Once substituted, he shouldn’t be accounted to shadow opposing top receivers (ask Josh Gordon or Calvin Johnson in 2013, or Stills & AJ Green this season). Blake and McCain both made plays (with Blake having outstanding coverage on Sanu on the 4^th quarter), while Gay had his big play (interception) turned over because of a penalty. All three of them provide an upgrade from our starting CBs from the beginning of the season (C Allen and I Taylor), and should be our top 3 CBs.
• Do we have Safeties? Mitchell broke a couple of passes, but was lost in coverage in most of the long throws. Polamalu, while still a fan favorite, is clearly on his downside: Was caught out of spot on Dalton’s TD run (relying too much on his old instincts, when he could screw up and come back on time to make a play), and was lost too on a couple of deep throws. While many blame LeBeau for our inexistent pass coverage sometimes, misreads and blown opportunities from our Safeties have been an issue all season long. Shamarko Thomas and Will Allen should be playing a lot more on this Defense.

Special Teams

Steelers return team didn’t create anything special in this game, while Suisham converted 2 FGs (22 and 44 yards). Brad Wing had his longest punt of the season (a 74 yarder that ended in a touchback). Punt coverage unit allowed two punt returns for more than 10 yards (14 and 16 respectively). The biggest play from special teams came after the 1^st Bengals offensive series, on a trick play that was stopped by the Steelers punt return team on an obscure ruling (which doesn’t allow an offensive player to recover a forward moving fumble, unless it’s recovered by the runner).

Just Wondering

• Losses against Tampa Bay and the Jets are more difficult to understand after games like this.
• This team will go as far as their offense is able to carry them. If Ben and Bell are on the same page, the Steelers will succeed.
• Have the coaches given up on Dri Archer?
• And this raises asking price for season finale tickets, CIN @ PIT.
• What had the coaches seen in Heyward Bay and Justin Brown to activate them over Martavis Bryant for the start of the season?   
• Does that performance shut down all rumors about Ben’s supposedly broken hand/wrist?
• And that should be the last time Ike Taylor is assigned to shadow the opponent’s best receiver.
• Is drafting a CB with the 1^st round pick in the 2015 draft a lock right now?
• … And a safety with the 2^nd round pick?
• Why isn’t Shamarko Thomas getting reps? Sometimes it seems it couldn’t be worse than what we’re seeing from starters.
• Do the Steelers have an NFL MVP candidate?
• Once Harrison gets back, will Dick LeBeau rotate his OLBs?
• Is LeBeau is hurting this defense? Not by scheme, but by starting Taylor and still letting Polamalu play off his instincts. Both are clearly not playing as gamechangers. Or even as top performers. Limit Polamalu’s risky moves. And wait until Taylor is 100% healthy before reinserting him in the lineup (which, ideally, would have him no greater than 3^rd CB right now).

What comes next?

The Steelers will play this season’s last game as a visitor next week, at Atlanta (4-7, pending a Monday night game against Green Bay). While they have a losing record (and that should be enough reason for concern), their division title is still in the air (a mediocre NFC south with a 16-34 combined record, featuring no winning teams). Meanwhile, the Bengals will visit Cleveland and the Ravens receive the Jaguars.

By the numbers

2nd game this Season without allowing an opposing sack

3rd consecutive game featuring a 200+ yard performance from Le’veon Bell, (tying Walter Payton’s NFL record from 1977).

5^th Win for the Steelers this season following a Loss (haven’t lose 2 straight so far).

7 times the Steelers have scored 30+ points this Season (3 of them scoring 40+).

7 games where Roethlisberger has passed for over 300 yards this season

7 number of TDs for Martavis Bryant so far, after 7 games as a pro

11 Consecutive non-losing seasons for the Steelers.

25 Points scored in the 4^th quarter by the Steelers

29 Consecutive games where Antonio Brown has 5 receptions and 50 yards, an NFL record

94 yards, TD pass from Roethlisberger to Bryant, the longest in the NFL this season.

362 points scored this season by the Steelers, currently 6th in the league

4991 passing yards – Roethlisberger’s projection for 2014 season (311 yards per game).