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Discussion in 'Steelers Talk' started by Fe3CCity, Nov 27, 2022.

  1. Fe3CCity

    Fe3CCity Well-Known Member

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    Pickett is on. 5 year deal ( the option ).

    With the modern day formula ( cheap good qb ) can the Steelers replicate this method?

    In 1 years there will be more free money.
    In 2 years there will be a large amount of free money.

    Do we have a core ( signed for the next 4 ) that will carry us, in the modern method, to a championship?

    If you have questions as to what I mean by modern method just search the past SB winners and their % cap hit for that year ( spoiler it's under ~18%).



    I'm inviting the questionable coaching talk but also suggesting can we draft well enough.
    The SB window has changed and now it's in the first 5 years. The ravens won't win anything if lamar is over 20% of cap space. Nothing on Lamar same goes for burrow.

    Please don't give me " if Tomlin is gone" stuff. Give me a little convo on, NFL SB winners, the rookie/young QB success, etc.
    In today's NFL, does it take a cheap QB to win a SB?
     
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  2. AskQuestionsLater

    AskQuestionsLater Writing Team

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    Sadly, this question will not be answered until the end of the season. That is due to see how well Kenny himself can close out the year. Rather... how well he can fight against whatever the hell play calling Matt Canada provides. It is bad enough he does not play to the strength of his weapons. It is worse when he does not understand even the basic logistics of NFL statistics. For example, he JUST found out that Diontae Johnson was the league leader in separation yards but as opposed to harness and augment his abilities by calling routes that would work in his favor, all he ever does is call jets 'n' bubble sweeps... save for the occasional post routes. Now, Kenny is not blameless here either as his decision making has not been up to par thus far; some still images of All 22 tape showing that Diontae himself is open in some cases. For that matter, Kenny is still having the typical ups and downs of a Rookie QB and not the mystical seasons that Big Ben or Justin Herbert have had.


    Second off and, as you said, the best way to win in the modern era of the NFL is finding the guy, building a team as quickly as possible within those five years and winning a title. Mind you though, just because a QB gets an extension does not mean the team is hamstrung with building around him. Patrick Mahomes' contact looked immeasurable at first but much of that money was based off of incentives; the biggest ones being if he can both lead the Chiefs to a Super Bowl and be MVP of the League for the duration of it. Should Kenny want to continually increase his chances of winning Super Bowls in the future then he would get signed to a big contract but not one that takes over 12% of the cap. Patrick Mahomes might not be the best example but while his current hit for the 2022 season will see him eat up 17% of the cap followed by just over 20% per OverTheCap, only his 2022, 2023, and 2024 salaries are fully guaranteed. 2025 onward though is not; once again per OverTheCap here. Another QB to look at currently is Josh Allen. Right now, he is going to account for 7.8% of the teams cap per OverTheCap. That figure will shoot up to 17.6% in 2023 and 16.3% in 2024. After that though, just like Mahomes, that cap percentage is not available as there is no fully guarantees there. Again, as you indirectly implied, the cap number plays a critical component in terms of winning. The other aspects though are of simplistic rules; good drafting, good development of talent, consistency and some luck included. Now, every two Super Bowl Winners not the same; both Los Angeles and Tampa Bay included. All Tampa needed was a good QB; arguably the GOAT of all of NFL History would surely suffice and Los Angeles needing a QB to max out Sean McVay's schemes; Matt Stafford being the one.



    Overall though, it is difficult to state how big or small the Steelers Window is currently. There are some pieces there but Kenny is going to play a major factor in it all; doubly so how he finishes out the season. That will give the team, and us as fans, more evidence as to how high Kenny's ceiling can be heading into not just 2023 but also the future. TJ is still here and will likely have five to six more legendary seasons left in him health permitting; same goes for Minkah. The team seems to have a keeper imo in DeMarvin Leal but could stand to do better with better depth. On the note of the Defensive Line, quite a bit of depth will be departing and Cameron Heyward sadly is not getting any younger. A decision will have to be made on Devin Bush though but given how well he has played this season, if he can finish strong, that would be interesting. Terrell Edmunds for me is likely going to be locked up long term as he has had the best season as a Pro to date and is the second best DB in the secondary. Corner though is long.. and I mean LONG OVERDUE an upgrade. For the Offense??... address the Offensive Line... please. Moore Jr, Dotson and Chuks are all simply not good enough. Thankfully though both Daniels and Cole have shown to be quality keepers. If not all three, at least do something with the bookend Offensive Tackles; doubly so in Moore Jr's case. The Receiving Corps is in desperate need of a slot option unless the team is counting on CAIII to be such come next season. Even so, I would not pass up the opportunity to nab one in the upcoming draft.


    To put it bluntly?! As stated above, Kenny Pickett's conclusion to his 2022 Rookie Season will give all of us a better idea of the Window as a whole. It will not provide the concrete answer though for there are too many variables to discuss; doubly so draft wise.
     
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  3. Wardismvp

    Wardismvp Well-Known Member

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    Draft well these next two years. I like our roster
    we need help at OL, ILB, CB, Edge depth. We also should have decent
    money to spend on FA.
     
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  4. Karl

    Karl Well-Known Member

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    In simplicity form.

    Draft well - This means making deals like moving up or down to get key players, trading player at the right time for picks, getting picks for player you let walk.
    So, this means balancing the roster, the Cap and selecting well.

    As far as paying your QB, that one will always be tricky.
    It is correct that paying a QB too much reduces your ability to balance the cap among the remaining roster.
    Right now, we are in the bottom third at QB money, spending something like less than 10% of cap on QB.
    Kenny being on his first contract will not impact that anytime in the near future.

    The thing that will have to change is the defensive money.
    We are currently 1st in that category and are not getting that kind of production.

    I'm not a capologist, but I could see the new regime leveling this some.
    Yes, of course TJ commands a price and is under contract till 2026. He is elite and a game changer.
    Heyward, man I love this guy, is on the block, they cannot pay him a cap hit of $22 mil for 23/24 - He's 33 now.
    Would he renegotiate? I dunno. This really wasn't managed well in my opinion.

    They need to rotate in some rookies and rotate out some overpaid vets and let other teams pay that premium.
    But to do that, you have to be good at the draft.

    I use KC as a template, like the move with Hill.... they didn't skip a beat.
    KC does spend a lot at QB but also spends along the line of scrimmage.

    Anyway, kind of rambling, just a couple thoughts.
     
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  5. hmmmmm

    hmmmmm Well-Known Member

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    For the rookie QB deal to work. You need a great QB playing cheap. We haven’t seen enough of Pickett to know if he is bad or average. We have seen enough to know he is NOT exceptional. He is not Mahomes, Herbert, Allen and Burrow.I am not saying Herbert will win a super bowl but I do know Pickett isn’t as good as those 3. When I team has a chance to get a super bowl with a cheap QB you can tell they have a chance very early
     
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  6. Rush2seven

    Rush2seven Well-Known Member

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    Fix OL + tighten defense = Super Bowl
     
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  7. mikeyg

    mikeyg Well-Known Member

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    the answer is NO. See the Pats for 15 years. TB12, while they were winning, was always in the top 5 of paid QB's - not #1, but Top 5.
    Mahomes is PAID, they may WIN this year.
    Allen is PAID, they may WIN this year.
    Rams, LAST year - PAID their QB
    DEN, 2016 - PAID Manning.

    is does not take a cheap QB to win.
     
  8. Fe3CCity

    Fe3CCity Well-Known Member

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    Incorrect.

    Looks at % of cap hit for the QB for a SB winning team.

    I'm not suggesting not paying I'm just suggesting not more than 18% of the cap.

    2 examples haven't won with that cap hit. TB always took a discount. In Tampa he was like 9% Stafford was like 10% last year.

    Iirc the last one was drew Brees. That was like forever ago.
     
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  9. mikeyg

    mikeyg Well-Known Member

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    you postulated that it takes a cheap QB - all I said was "no, it does not".

    TB took a discount but was always TOP 5 paid, in his prime. He never played for 'cheap'.
     
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  10. DJ18Baller

    DJ18Baller Well-Known Member

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    Sign really good free agents
    Draft really good players

    We should be back on top next year!
     
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  11. Brice

    Brice Well-Known Member

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    Apparently, I don't know what is affordable anymore.

    My middle of the road QB for the last few seasons has always been Ryan Tannehill. Nothing special, just an average QB who can succeed in a good system. The 2021 offseason before Ben came back, I was comparing Mason Rudolph to Tannehill, and now I am comparing Kenny Pickett to Tannehill.

    Want to guess which QB this year has the greatest Cap Hit for His team????? Yeah, the same Joe Average; Ryan Tannehill
    upload_2022-11-30_15-48-0.png
     
  12. Fe3CCity

    Fe3CCity Well-Known Member

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    Fair. I did suggest a cheap QB. I suppose I should have said cheaper.

    I think we may need a refresher on TB

    https://www.sportskeeda.com/nfl/tom-brady-underpaid-career-compared-current-qbs

    Highest cap hit % in career? 13.6 %

    https://overthecap.com/player

    In that year? No SB.

    In his highest earning (by cap hit) of 2018 it was ~20 mil.
    Good for 16th among QBs.

    https://www.masslive.com/sports/erry-2018/05/2be2289423857/how_many_nfl_quarterbacks_make.html

    I'm saying cheaper than the mahomes, Watson, etc of the world.
    Maybe this tosses out the cheap idea but maybe cheaper in comparison. I should have clarified. My b
     
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  13. SteelersFan369

    SteelersFan369 Well-Known Member

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    QBs are typically highest paid player on team, so in time, Pickett will been if he earns it by his second contract.

    I couldn't believe when the Lions made Matt Stafford the highest paid player in the NFL. Megatron at WR was the star in the passing game. It took Stafford going to the Rams to win.

    SB 50 was all about the defenses, not the QBs who stunk up the stadium.
    - Manning finished the game 13 of 23 for 141 yards with one interception, two fumbles, and was sacked five times.
    - Newton completed 18 of 41 passes for 265 yards with one interception, two fumbles, and was sacked seven times
     
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  14. mikeyg

    mikeyg Well-Known Member

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    i understand and in general, for sure agree. you have to win with these rookie deals, that is the best path, no argument. the Ravens window is closing, as an example.

    What was Manning's cap hit, in 2016? Yes, they lost the SB, but they ripped thru the Afc - so if SB wins is our only metric, and a strict one, then that narrows the discussion, but expensive QB's got / GET to the SB. ATL Matt Ryan could not help the fact that his coaches are idiots, or else he would have a ring, and he was a highly paid QB at that time, I believe.

    But for sure - in general - odds favor young strong CHEAP QB's where you can spend LOT of $$ around them to win it all now!!
    ALL GOOD!!

    :drinks:
     
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  15. SteelersFan369

    SteelersFan369 Well-Known Member

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    Manning was 8-2 with 9 TDs and 17 ints during the regular season. I understand what you are saying and Manning gave them the needed leadership that season, but he was the shell of himself. He even beat the Steelers in the first round and he threw no TDs in the game.
     
  16. mikeyg

    mikeyg Well-Known Member

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    agree - he was a shell, an overpaid shell - but, yes a shell....
     
  17. Fe3CCity

    Fe3CCity Well-Known Member

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    Oh 100% man. I by no means am saying let's not sign a stud Im saying it seems as if you need a cap friendly (cheap) QB.

    Having a stud QB gets you to the playoffs every year ( or just about) and I'll take that 100% of the time.

    Maybe Im just excited about the talent we could have in 3 years with kennys rookie deal getting close to ending.
     
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  18. S.T.D

    S.T.D Well-Known Member

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    How much cap space they take up that Year..... I agree with You.
     
  19. Vox Ferrum

    Vox Ferrum Well-Known Member

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    That metric of 12 or 12.5 % has been a little over a decade I believe. It will one day be overcome, but certainly a metric that makes sense. If the goal is to win divisions then GB has a ton of titles, but only one SB with a QB that set a ton of records and had a few MVPs. Jimmy G got San Fran to a SBand another NFC title game. For all the naysayers he has a .833 winning per centage. Yet has no ring.

    I guess my point is it takes not only a good QB, but a team that can put all phases of the game together at the right time. The Rams put together a team in a rather untraditional way..won a SB (not by much) and this year are after thoughts.

    I think in the right system KP can be a very good QB. There are weaknesses to his game, but a desire and enough talent to get you there. Can the team build around him to get there in year 3 or 4. No doubt it can be done, but it's going to take some really good drafts and key investment in FA.
     
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  20. jeh1856

    jeh1856

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    At least I think we be competitive for a playoff spot
     
  21. mac daddyo

    mac daddyo Well-Known Member

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    sign everyone, if it doesn't make them look fat and more pigeons is the way to go. such an easy formula. :cool:
     

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