Onside kick it to start OT.

The rules for overtime state that each team is allowed a chance to possess the ball before a FG can beat a team. I checked on it and an onside kick counts as the receiving team having a chance to possess the ball. So if a team kicks an onside kick to start OT and recovers it, they can win the game with a FG and the other team will not get a chance to respond. If the onside kick is not recovered by the kicking team, the kicking team has not officially gotten a chance to possess the ball and so a FG will not beat them. With that explained, I think the smart play is to onside kick if you are kicking to start OT. All you are risking is field position and you are potentially gaining the ball with a chance to win with a FG. I know no one will ever do this as NFL coaches are afraid of doing anything different for fear of criticism, but I would love to see it. It would be an unexpected onside kick (at least the first time this is tried) and the odds of recovering it are much higher than if it is expected.

 

A team would need to have a very good defense if they lost the onside kick. Its easier to go 45-50 yards for a touchdown, than it is to go 75 or 80 yards.

 

I like the thinking outside the box.

I'd have to be confident the opposing team would play conservative if they recovered, though.

 

Sure, but how much easier? The surprise onside kick recovery rate is around 60%! So you are risking a 40% chance of giving up 35 or so yards for a 60% chance of getting the ball immediately with a chance to win with a FG and never even let the other team have the ball. It seems worth it to me, at least if your own defense is not great.

 

Again, 60% recovery rate for surprise onside kicks. I looked up the possession thing on an NFL site last year. Not sure where now. If someone finds out different information it would change everything but I am pretty sure kicking off (even with an onside kick) counts as a chance to possess the ball. If the receiving team bobbles the kick or simply fails to cover it and the kicking team recovers they can win with a FG. The onside kick is essentially the same scenario just with different intentions.

 

Btw, the team that receives the ball first in OT still has over a 54% chance to win the game, so the kicking team has under a 46% chance to win.

 

Ahh.... it's not that gutsy. Try kicking the ball off instead of taking the ball when it used to be sudden death OT.

An NFL coach actually did that once. Moral of the story he wasn't successful.

 

So you are risking 25 yards of field possession to get the ball first with a chance to win. If we were facing Rodgers in OT with our defense like it looked lat the end of last year I am taking that chance every time.

Oh, and I just did a google search on surprise onside kicks to find the number. It would be interesting to have data on how likely teams are to score tds or fgs based on field position. Then we could really figure out the better option.

 

WOW. I had no idea a surprise kick had a recovery rate of 60%!

 

We also need a Markov Chain. Apparently.

http://harvardsportsanalysis.org/2014/01/modeling-nfl-overtime-as-a-markov-chain/

 

True, but in the right situation (facing a hot offense with a not hot defense) I think it could still make sense. Really need all the data on scoring drives to know though. Mostly I just find it interesting that an onside kick counts as a chance to possess, thus making the game sudden death instantly.

 

Browns are probably the only team I'd try this on

 

I am not sure this info is correct . I think when the Team chooses to receive the kick that doesn't count until after the kick...In other words I think it is the first Offense to possess the ball and that doesn't occur until 1 Team secures the kick ... My take is that means even if the kicking Team recovers the receiving Team would still get a chance if only a FG was kicked..

Again I will try and confirm this Info , but I am fairly sure this is the way it works..

 

According to NFL.com on sudden death overtime :

» Opportunity to possess: The opportunity to possess occurs only during kicking plays. A kickoff is an opportunity to possess for the receiving team. If the kicking team legally recovers the kick, the receiving team is considered to have had its opportunity. A punt or a field goal that crosses the line of scrimmage and is muffed by the receiving team is considered to be an opportunity to possess for the receivers. Normal touching rules by the kicking team apply.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d827ee2c0/article/nfl-overtime-rules

 

Too big of a gamble, let's see the stats on the onside kicks, seems to be overly optimistic. In the likely event that you are unsuccessful.... you hand the ball to the opponent with an opportunity to score a TD from very close range.

In 2015, there were 67 recorded onside kicks with 10 being recovered (according to one stats site)...... there's no way you can parse that data and extrapolate to a meaningful conclusion...... the sample size of 10 recoveries just isn't enough.

 

I think you are forgetting a major flaw in your theory.....do you remember our last couple onside kicks?

 

http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2009/09/onside-kicks.html

That is from a few years back but I don't see why it would have changed much.

Edit: I don't have time right now to read it carefully, but skimming part two of the above (http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2009/10/onside-kicks-2-win-probability-analysis.html) it seems like it might make even more sense in OT to do it.

 

Legally recovers ? Does that mean fumble ? Or does that apply to the onside kick as well ? So I guess I am thinking that a kickoff and a onside kick are not governed under the same rules as above ...Thanks for the Info , but I am still thinking the kicking Team must actually kick it off and not onside kick it to count as a recovery.. At least the Coach in me thinks it should be that way.lol

 

No, it refers to onside kicks as well. If you look at the page, there’s a scenario given with an onside kick which confirms it.

Might be different at other levels of the game, college etc

 

Well if that is indeed the case then the onside kick is probably the best play ...

 

This discussion is all well and good. But let's be honest, Tomlin should've kicked it deep in the playoff game and hoped by some miracle, the D could come up with a stop.

 

Onside kicks as a whole are rarely successful but surprise onside kicks do have a good success rate.

I'd like to see one tried to open the game in week 1 of a season. First play of the season when several players are having their 1st ever NFL snap. They'd be nervous and more prone to mistakes. The receiving team would likely be caught flatfooted.

If I were an NFL coach I'd try it, which is probably one of many reasons I'll never be an NFL coach. Oh well, maybe I'll get appointed to the Supreme Court when Ginsberg is gone if I can't be a coach.