NFL 2025

Sunday, Sep 28
9:30am ET on NFL Network
Carson Wentz vs. Aaron Rodgers

➤Aaron Rodgers has a lot of experience facing the Vikings. He is 17-12-1 SU and 17-13 ATS against Minnesota in his career. Rodgers is .500 SU and ATS or better vs Brad Childress, Mike Zimmer and Leslie Frazier while with the Vikings, but he is 1-2 SU/ATS vs. Kevin O’Connell.

➤Aaron Rodgers has only faced a Brian Flores-led defense once in his career, while Flores was with either the Dolphins or VIkings, his two prominant positions. It was in 2024 with the Jets, a 23-17 loss to Minnesota overseas in London. In that game, Rodgers wasn’t his best with 2 TDs and 3 INTs, but under pressure he was 5-14 passing and when blitzed he threw 1 of his 3 INTs.

➤Mike Tomlin has coached in three neutral site games in his coaching career with the Steelers and the over is 3-0, going over the total by 11.5 PPG – one overseas game and two Super Bowls.

➤The Steelers run game has been non-existent. Pittsburgh is averaging 2.82 yards per carry, the 2nd-worst mark in the NFL ahead of just the Bengals. For the 5th time under Mike Tomlin, Steelers have fewer than 200 rush yds through three games and the third time since 2019. Here is how those previous four seasons ended for Pittsburgh:

2021, 9-7-1 SU, L in WC
2019, 8-8 SU, Miss
2013, 8-8 SU, Miss
2012, 8-8 SU, Miss

➤A few facts and trends from the 50 total international games:

The under has a small edge at 26-24. Here's a breakdown by stadium:
Wembley: 14-12 to the under
Twickenham: 2-1 to the under
Allianz: 2-0 to the under
Corinthians: 2-0 to the over
Deutsch Bank Park: 2-0 to the under
Azteca: 3-2 to the over
Tottenham: 6-4 to the over

➤Favorites have excelled in international games. They are 36-13-1 SU and 32-18 ATS. Favorites at Wembley Stadium are 19-6-1 SU, best of any International Series stadium. A little cherry picking, but favorites are 29-6-1 SU at Wembley, Azteca, Deutsche Bank and Twickenham.

Bigger public sides have actually had success in overseas matchups.
60%+: 21-16 ATS
66%+: 14-10 ATS
70%+: 8-3 ATS

➤Aaron Rodgers has started two games in overseas games, one with the Jets (2024) and one with the Packers (2022) – he is 0-2 SU/ATS in those matchups, failing to cover the spread by 9 PPG. In the two games, Rodgers’ teams have scored 3 total points in the 3rd quarter coming out of the locker room and they’ve scored 12 pts in total in the second half.

Mike Tomlin has coached in one overseas game, back in 2013 .. a loss to the Vikings.

➤The Seahawks, Vikings and Panthers all won by 30 pts or more in Week 3. In a teams first 7 games of the regular season, teams are 36-57-3 ATS (39%) the game after winning by 30 pts or more since 2003.

➤The Vikings will play Carson Wentz against the Steelers and Mike Tomlin this week. With JJ McCarthy sidelined, Minnesota will officially start a back up QB. Since 2020, the Steelers have face a backup QB 18 times — the backup QB is 11-7 ATS vs. Pittsburgh in that span.

Game Forecast
From NFL Weather


MIN @ PIT
Sun, 9/28 9:30am ET
Forecast
60°F Mostly Cloudy

Precipitation
0 %
Wind
3.46 WSW

 

The Vikings have allowed an average of 141.3 passing yards per game, which is the third fewest in the league. On the other hand, the Steelers are 24th in the NFL in passing yards per game (184.0).

The Steelers are 20-8-2 ATS (against the spread) as home underdogs (18-12 outright) under coach Mike Tomlin.

: The Eagles are 1-3 in Tampa Bay under coach Nick Sirianni and have not been their best in the Florida heat. They flew out Friday, a day early, to get acclimated to the weather (it's supposed to be 90 degrees with 68% humidity on Sunday). But not everyone is convinced the approach will pay dividends. "You don't practice in heat one day and say you're acclimated or take a pill and say you're acclimated," defensive coordinator Vic Fangio said. "The key will be, I mean, it's a mindset, No. 1. No. 2, we need to not let them have eight-, 10-, 12-play drives on us."

Eagles QB Jalen Hurts is 1-4 in his career against Buccaneers (including the playoffs), his most losses versus any team.

Emeka Egbuka takes over as the Buccaneers' No. 1 WR with Mike Evans sidelined for multiple weeks (hamstring). He has racked up 21 targets and 51 fantasy points through three games and will be busy against the Eagles' secondary

The Buccaneers are 15-6 ATS as underdogs (10-11 outright) since acquiring QB Baker Mayfield in 2023, the best record in the NFL in that span

Cleveland's defense has a claim as the league's best, allowing the fewest yards in the NFL per game (204.3). However, the Lions' offense, which ranks second in scoring and first in EPA per play, will be Cleveland's biggest test to date. The Browns will be on alert for everything, from Detroit's use of motion and trick plays to its fourth-down aggressiveness. "Runs, play-action, screens, they're probably the leader in the NFL when it comes to combining all three of those things on first and second down," defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz said. "We'll have to take away what they do best. Every play is going to be a battle." --

The Lions are 12-4 ATS in September under coach Dan Campbell.

Quarterbacks making their first career start against the Chargers are 3-17 in the Super Bowl era (since 1967), but 2-2 in such games since 2019

The Giants are 3-11 ATS in their past 14 games as underdogs.

The Bills have a 13-game home winning streak in the regular season but could be without three starters (DT Ed Oliver, LB Matt Milano and RT Spencer Brown) due to injuries.

The Bills have gone eight straight games without a turnover (including the playoffs), which is tied with the 2024 Chiefs for the longest streak with zero turnovers since 1933.

Rattler is 1-8 ATS in his career as a starter.

The Commanders have covered all four meetings with the Falcons since 2021.

Young is 1-14 in his first 15 career road starts, tied with Steve DeBerg, Dan Pastorini and Blake Bortles for the second-worst record by a QB through his first 15 road starts since starts were first tracked in 1950.

Titans coach Brian Callahan is 3-17 ATS, the worst mark of any coach in the Super Bowl era.

The Colts have enjoyed great rushing success so far, with star RB Jonathan Taylor leading the NFL with 338 yards. But the Rams offer a stiff test, having allowed just one rushing touchdown and 3.9 yards per rush. Whether Taylor and the Colts can achieve some rushing consistency will have an impact on how successful their surprisingly efficient passing game can remain. The Colts have achieved great offensive balance, but whether Taylor can find running lanes against a tough defensive front remains to be seen

The Rams have 12 sacks this season, which is tied with the Broncos for the most in the NFL. Colts QB Daniel Jones has been sacked only twice, which is the fewest among qualified quarterbacks, according to ESPN Research. Rams coach Sean McVay noted the efficiency the Colts have played with this season, saying, "They're not playing behind the sticks." "He's obviously got the mobility to be able to make you pay as a runner, but I think he's reading well with his feet," McVay said of Jones. "He throws the ball with great accuracy and anticipation

Rams QB Matthew Stafford co-leads the NFL in completions (29), passing touchdowns (four with zero interceptions) and first downs (17) on play-action this season. Meanwhile, Indianapolis' defense has 10 interceptions on play-action throws under coach Shane Steichen (since 2023)

The Colts are 3-0 ATS this season with the highest average cover margin in the NFL (13.8).

Niners RB Christian McCaffrey has had 50 rushing yards and 50 receiving yards in each game this season. He is seeking to become the second player in NFL history to start a season with four such consecutive games.

The Jaguars have lost seven straight games following a win (2-5 ATS).

The Ravens' defense, which ranks last in the NFL for the first time since 2021, now faces its most challenging quarterback. The Ravens are 1-5 versus Patrick Mahomes (including the playoffs), who has thrown 14 touchdowns and three interceptions against the Baltimore defense. "I think one thing we touched on was just staying on your feet when he pump-fakes," OLB Odafe Oweh said. "And then when you get there, try to hit him legally, as legally as you can in today's NFL. We have to respect his playmaking ability.

: The Ravens have scored 111 points this season, which is the most by a team with a losing record through three games in NFL history. The most points by a team with a losing record through four games is 140 by the 2022 Lions, who finished the season 8-9 and missed playoffs.

Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is 31-15-2 ATS on the road

The Bears are 12-23 ATS on the road since 2021.

The Packers have had all kinds of injury issues on the offensive line. They finished last week's loss without RT Zach Tom (oblique) and LG Aaron Banks (groin), and the Browns pressured QB Jordan Love at a 42% rate -- the highest of his career -- and made it impossible for RB Josh Jacobs to run (16 carries, 30 yards). Green Bay could be without both linemen again on Sunday. But Elgton Jenkins, the Pro Bowl guard who moved to center this offseason, believes he could have helped had he played better. "I feel like I've played like s---, honestly," Jenkins said. "Like, I can play a lot better. A lot of things, a lot of small detail things that I can fix, overall. But I just feel like I've played like s--- and definitely got to play better moving forward.

Parsons makes his return to Dallas as a league coleader with 14 QB pressures this season (tied with the Bills' Joey Bosa and the Broncos' Nik Bonitto), and as the sole leader in pass rush wins with 17.

The Packers are 61-42 ATS under coach Matt LaFleur, but only 11-16 ATS as road favorites, including a loss last week as 7.5-point road favorites against the Browns.

Both the Dolphins and Jets are 0-3 and have zero takeaways this season. It's the first season since turnovers became official in 1933 that multiple teams are 0-3 with no takeaways.

The Jets are 22-33 ATS in prime-time games since 2005, including 5-13 ATS since 2019.

This is not the week to be facing a strong Denver front, as the Bengals are once again trying to find a solution at right guard. Cincinnati rookie Jalen Rivers finished last week's game at that spot in place of Dalton Risner, who is likely on the outside of that starting spot. That makes Rivers the fourth player giving it a shot (Lucas Patrick is currently on injured reserve with a calf injury). This is something to watch out for, as the Broncos' Nik Bonitto is fourth in the league in pass rush win rate (29.8%) as an edge rusher

The Broncos certainly have emotional Band-Aids from back-to-back losses. On each game's last play over the past two weeks, the defense couldn't get the slam-the-door stops it needed. But in reality, the offense should bear the most scrutiny. The team is 27th in third-down conversions, 19th in offensive EPA and QB Bo Nix is 25th in QBR. And last week, the Broncos had seven -- you read that right -- possessions go for 10 or fewer yards. Four of those went for 1 yard, no gain or negative yardage. Toss in the fact the Broncos are the fourth-most penalized team in the league, and you have the recipe for a team that has yet to find the fast start coach Sean Payton tried to construct. -

Entering Week 4, the Broncos lead the league in pass block win rate (75%). The Bengals rank last in that category (45%).

Nix is 8-2 ATS as a favorite.