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Here's EXACTLY how costly AB's step was!

Discussion in 'Steelers Talk' started by blountforcetrauma, Dec 9, 2013.

  1. blountforcetrauma

    blountforcetrauma Well-Known Member

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  2. bigsteelerfaninky

    bigsteelerfaninky Well-Known Member

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    Now that fellow has something to really be sick about
     
  3. blountforcetrauma

    blountforcetrauma Well-Known Member

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    I've never been a gambler so can you explain to me exactly how he lost the money? What was gonna cause him to win the money? Did he guess the exact score or something?
     
  4. knab70

    knab70 Well-Known Member

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    AB lacked awareness big time! There were plenty of room between he and Clemons to stay inbounds to seal the deal. :facepalm:
     
  5. SteelCity_NB

    SteelCity_NB Staff Member Mod Team

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    That is a bad break. I would be sick for weeks over a loss like that.

    BFT - He correctly picked the winners of every other game. I don't think spreads were involved at all in these picks. Looks like a $5, 16 game parlay would have netted him just over $99,000.
     
  6. DSteelerCT

    DSteelerCT Well-Known Member

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    You can win $100k by picking all winners without the spread? That seems a bit far fetched to me...I wouldn't think the odds are worse than 1 in 20,000 to pull that off...
     
  7. SteelCity_NB

    SteelCity_NB Staff Member Mod Team

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    I thought it was a 16 game parlay, but I'm only counting 15 games...

    I would agree that the odds are 20,000 to 1 for 15 games. so on a $5 bet thats where you get $100,000.
     
  8. bigsteelerfaninky

    bigsteelerfaninky Well-Known Member

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    its just like the va steel pickem game except TTF doesnt charge us 5 bucks to play

    you pick the winners and if you are right you hit the jackpot

    I dont htink TTF has had a perfect card all year in his game so its quite hard to do it

    hence the big payout
     
  9. aces4me

    aces4me Well-Known Member

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    Assuming every game is a coin flip (which we know isn't true) the odds are 2^15 (32768 to 1) to win. Which is a losing bet at a payout of 20,000 to one. However if you have even 2 lock games(..yeah right this is the NFL) the odds drop to 8192 to one.
     
  10. D0bre Shunka

    D0bre Shunka Well-Known Member

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    Camera angles: From the rear side push the target forward.

    We have only to take the officials word for it at this point.
     
  11. aces4me

    aces4me Well-Known Member

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    I have yet to read or watch anything which questions the correctness of that call.
     
  12. fanforlife

    fanforlife

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  13. SteelCity_NB

    SteelCity_NB Staff Member Mod Team

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  14. fanforlife

    fanforlife

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  15. DSteelerCT

    DSteelerCT Well-Known Member

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  16. SteelCity_NB

    SteelCity_NB Staff Member Mod Team

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  17. fanforlife

    fanforlife

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    Agreed, the key is how many ticket are sold on a weekly basis. The big difference between this type of action and the lottery is in this one the individual buying the ticket controls who they pick as winners for the 16 games which allows a small degree of controlling your own outcome. The real ugly thing would be a tie because then nobody but the house wins unless someone is really zoned into their picking. The luck I had last weekend it would be the last game on the card and I would have picked every game correct and the last game would end up a tie.
     
  18. Homestead____Works

    Homestead____Works Well-Known Member

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    Not paying attention to the sideline, knocked the Steelers, and my fantasy team out of the play-offs!
     
  19. BobbyBiz

    BobbyBiz Well-Known Member

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    Oh man I used to love prob and stats way back in school. I think you're a bit off here although you are on the right track. I really had to go back and grease up my brain and use google, but the right way to calculate the odds are .5^15. Each flip of the coin there is a .5 chance of getting a heads. Two consecutive heads would be .5 X .5 = .25 or a 1/4 chance. Three consecutive would be .5 X .5 X .5 = .125 or a 1/8 chance. And so on. .5^15 = .00003 or 3/100,000 or 33,333 to 1 odds. But hey what is and additional 565 to 1 among friends?:shrug:

    The fun part would be trying to assign a weight to the favorite team. If every team that was a favorite was assigned .6 chance of winning, that would change the odds to nearly 5/100,000 (assuming you picked each favorite) which would be closer to the 20,000 to 1 payout.
     
  20. ScottChab

    ScottChab Well-Known Member

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    The loss may have knocked them out of the playoffs. You can't just blame it on AB stepping out of bounds.
     
  21. BobbyBiz

    BobbyBiz Well-Known Member

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    Blaming that loss on AB is like blaming the Oakland loss on Suisham.
     
  22. ScottChab

    ScottChab Well-Known Member

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    Exactly. A buddy of mine that is a Bengals fan told me that they knocked the Steelers out of the playoffs last year. I told him that he was wrong, their 8 losses did. He never said anything to me about it again.

    You can blame a loss of any game on any player or unit. If the defense didn't let them score as many points as they did... If Special Teams didn't give up so many return yards... if the o-line blocked better and helped convert one more 3rd down... If Tomlin would have made that one tackle. ;)
     

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