Daniel Jeremiah Mock 1.0

Absolutely agree with this reasoning..

 

I almost agree, but don't. What's the reasoning behind why you think it would cost so much? It's not that 'expensive' to move up.

 

While I completely agree that Matthews will not fall to 11, here is a possible scenario where he could.

A) He would have to have very bad worksouts.
B) Greg Robinson puts on an athletic clinic during workouts.
B) Enough teams would have to be desperate enough to grab all of these QBs that are out there (which happened in 2011)
C) The draft would play out something like this:

1. Houston - Tedy Bridgewater
2. St Louis - JaDeveon Clowney
3. Jacksonville - Blake Bortles
4. Cleveland - Johnny Manziel
5. Okalnad - Sammy Watkins
6. Atlanta - Greg Robinson
7. Tampa - Anthony Barr
8. Minnesota - This is really the make or break pick. Possible Trade for a player someone is enamored with other than Matthews. Maybe a CB or a specific 4-3 type of player
9. Buffalo - Khalil Mack
10. Detroit - Eric Ebron

As I said, its not a very likely scenario. Atlanta is going OT all the way, but if Robinson shines and Matthews doesn't Atlanta could go in that direction. I doubt Minnesota would take an OT, but I don't really know who they would go with. I see it as a likely trade spot. Buffalo won't go OT and I doubt Detroit does either. Detroit could go Defence or add another weapon to their offense. If Ebron puts up Vernon Davis-like workouts, he could jump into the Top 10.

I personally feel that Jake Matthews will go #2 to St Louis though. Alot of mocks have a DE going to St Louis which I find puzzling since they have Quinn & Long. As good as Clowney may be, I can't see the Rams adding another DE at #2.

 

Good breakdown NB..
I think that there's a strong possibility that Atlanta will trade up to #2 and grab Matthews though.

 

Going by the trade chart I suppose you could give a 4th this year and a 4th or 5th next year, which is a relatively small "cost" in terms of value. The trade chart is just theory, though. It's great for mocks, and I know teams use it as a rule of thumb, but I don't know how many draft trades actually end up correlating to it. Last year, the Dolphins moved up from 12 to 3 and they only gave up pick #42.

After further consideration...this might actually happen for us! The Raiders pick at 5 this year.

 

Nice breakdown, NB.

 

The fact that alot of people say how mocks should look so much different in April than they do right now is bogus in my opinion. While I do hold the Senior Bowl/East-West Shrine game in high regard, the Combine really doesn't hold alot of water in my books. It either confirms what I already think of a prospect, or might just give me some pause and cause me to go back and look at more tape. Unfortunately as fans we don't have access to interviews that the team conducts. I am sure this is incredible important to the teams themselves although as fans, we are left in the dark.

For me, no single workout is going to erase 3-4 years of ACTUAL football that is on tape. Although he had some off the field stuff, 1 bad workout caused Vontaze Burfict not to be drafted, which is ridiculous considering the amount of good tape he had. There's too many prospects that unfortunately fall victim to this.

I am someone who generally covets Seniors moreso than Juniors, unless the talent is undeniable. Going to make it trickier to evaluate this year considering 90+ Juniors declared.

As for that Top 10 I listed above, in no way is that how I think it will actually shake out. I just listed a possible scenario that would allow Matthews to fall. In no way do I think that will actually happen.

 

Right. If a "scout" is continually changing their boards like you see on some of the draft sites, or the combine is dramatically effecting their evaluation of a player, they're doing it wrong. It shouldn't really have an impact, but it does. There is definitely some useful data to be had from the combine, though.