AFCN Title; Hmmm

Can the Steelers hope that both the Ravens and Bengals end up with 'low floors'?

AFC North odds, projections: Could Steelers challenge Ravens, Bengals for division title? - The Athletic

AFC North odds, projections: Could Steelers challenge Ravens, Bengals for division title?
By Austin Mock
Aug. 25, 2026

A quick glance at the AFC North odds-board would suggest it’s either the Baltimore Ravens’ or Cincinnati Bengals’ to lose — but that’s also what the odds-board indicated heading into last season, before the Pittsburgh Steelers emerged victorious.

Listed at +510 odds that give them around a 15 percent implied probability to win, major sportsbooks like DraftKings aren’t ruling the Steelers out, and neither is The Athletic’s predictive analyst Austin Mock. Let’s dive into how his model projects every AFC North team’s chances to win the division, make the playoffs and more.



It’s a long shot, but it’s entirely possible the Steelers could win the AFC North.

First, the roster is actually in pretty decent shape. It skews older, but there are still quality players on both sides of the ball. The offense has plenty of weapons with DK Metcalf and Michael Pittman Jr. at wide receiver, Pat Freiermuth and Darnell Washington at tight end, and Jaylen Warren and Rico Dowdle at running back. The offensive line is in pretty good shape as well. And while the linebacker group is average, the secondary has a good foundation and the defensive line has enough depth and potential to be awesome.

Of course, I left out a pretty important position. Aaron Rodgers’ prime is well behind him, but his reunion with Mike McCarthy could spark something. I wouldn’t say McCarthy is an elite offensive mind, but he has the ability to raise the offensive floor in Pittsburgh. And when you give him this much talent, there is a chance the Steelers could be around average (or slightly above). Would that good enough to win the division? I’m not sure. But paired with what should be a top-10 defense, they’re certainly good enough to challenge the Ravens and Bengals.

Another angle to factor in is that Baltimore and Cincinnati have pretty low floors.

Lamar Jackson was banged up last season and never quite seemed right. What if that spills into this season? Then you look at the Ravens’ offensive line and all of its question marks. The 32-year-old Derrick Henry has to eventually slow down. And the defense couldn’t generate pressure without blitzing last year. I’m bullish on coach Jesse Minter, and the addition of Trey Hendrickson should help, but that doesn’t guarantee a top-10 defense.

The team I’m most worried about is the Bengals. We know the offense is going to be really good if it’s healthy. And the Bengals finally added to a poor defense by trading for defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence and adding pass rusher Boye Mafe in free agency. The Bengals were 14th in expected points added (EPA) per play on defense in the second half of last season, so I do believe they improve. But what if they don’t? And they’re still a well below average defense?

All of those possibilities are well within the range of outcomes, which gives me enough confidence to say the Steelers could defend their AFC North title. Is it likely? Probably not. But it’s possible.