AFCN Scheme Previews

Odd outlook considering nothing mentioned about a new look offense with MM:

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are one of a handful of teams that may increase their under center usage in order to get more advantageous looks in the passing game this season. We are buying this because Lamar Jackson has already shown he can be incredible in these situations.

Since 2022, Lamar Jackson has 210 under center dropbacks with a 92.9% play action rate. During that time, he ranked 1st in EPA/dropback (it isn’t close!) and 1st in dropback success rate on under center play action.

Jackson’s film in those situations matches the numbers as he has shown his confidence over the middle, can find second windows, and is more than happy to throw through tight coverage.

One of the goals of turning to under center looks and adding in heavy personnel is to encourage defenses to bring out base personnel and roll a safety into the box while playing single high coverages. Base defense removes one defensive back from the field, and single high coverages can have a more difficult time dealing with crossing routes off play action as safeties that are already closer to the line of scrimmage will have to retreat to gain ground and find receivers.

Of the 195 under center play action dropbacks from Jackson since 2022, the Ravens used heavier personnel groupings on 181 of those snaps and had a massive 66.9% success rate. 121 of the total snaps drew base defenses and Jackson shredded Cover 1 and Cover 3 single high looks.

Under center looks can also help Derrick Henry who had 0.05 EPA/rush on under center runs versus -0.07 EPA/rush on runs from shotgun.

Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals defense ranked 26th in missed tackle rate and 32nd in yards after catch per reception allowed last year as tackling problems spread across all three levels of the unit. They also ranked 29th in EPA/rush and 32nd in tackle for loss percentage. We could continue with more stats, but we trust that you get the picture.

With a desperate need for a change, Cincinnati turned to Dexter Lawrence, Boye Mafe, and Bryan Cook in free agency. The Bengals are banking on Lawrence’s ability up front to be a force multiplier for the rest of the defense. If Lawrence can demand double teams and be impactful against the run and the pass, the Bengals young linebackers may have an easier time sifting through trafficking on the way to the running back. This can also let Boye Mafe find himself in positive 1 on 1 situations on the outside.

We are also excited about the addition of Bryan Cook. Cook comes from a Chiefs defense known for disguise, tight coverage, and great tackling. He can play downhill and could be an eraser for this team. With the likes of Lawrence, Mafe, and Cook on the field, we are looking for this defense to raise their floor as the Bengals offense leads the way.

Pittsburgh Steelers
In 2025, the Steelers defense saw the 2nd fastest time to throw against and the 3rd lowest average depth of target against while having the 5th fastest time to pressure. Teams were looking to get the ball out quick because of a front that should be able to stress out offenses again this season.

Cam Heyward continues to deny the laws of nature and is still a productive player entering his age 37 season. On the outside, T.J. Watt has the 3rd most forced fumbles in the league over the last three seasons as well as the 7th most sacks. Offenses were comfortable scheming their run game away from his static alignment last year, though new defensive coordinator Patrick Graham should be able to patch up that issue.

Also on the outside is Alex Highsmith, who has an 86th percentile pressure rate among edges with at least 500 defensive snaps over the past two seasons. The third head of the edge rusher Cerberus is Nick Herbig, and we are interested to see if Patrick Graham deploys all three at the same time. The film of these situations last year was not great with Herbing often used a move piece, but Graham may bring more creativity in pressure looks, including using Patrick Queen as a downhill attacker.

Cleveland Browns
The Browns are starting to put together an exciting group of skill position players. Among 36 tight ends with at least 250 routes run last season, Harold Fannin ranked 9th in yards per route run as a rookie. Fannin commanded the 2nd highest tight end target share and lined up in the slot for 41% of his snaps.

Denzel Boston and KC Concepcion join the fun as Boston had an 87th percentile yards per route run among all FBS wide receivers with 250+ routes last season and was a force in the red zone. Concepcion had an 88th percentile yards per route run and can bring something to the offense after the catch.

 

If you follow this guy (Alexander) he really knows his ball. Have to agree with his take. The AFCN outcome hinges on CIN.

Steelers "A soft reset"

Steelers starting @~25:00

AFC North Scheme Shifts and Soft Resets

 

I already said I had money on Bengals making the playoffs.
I just hope we make it also

 

I think these guys probably understand football analytics because Bubba likes them.

I think they probably understand youtube analytics because they put the Steelers last. You can skip to the last few minutes (something around minute 25) if all you want to hear about is our boys.

 

I'm a Brown fan I'm taking that first sentence and hanging it on my wall.