What Does a McCarthy Offense Look Like?

I don't know. I just don't see the difference between this as being a coin flip:

Tomlin: 4 of 19 seasons with a playoff win, with an 8-12 playoff record. With Ben for 15 seasons. 193–114–2 (.628) regular season.
Cowher: 8 of 15 seasons with a playoff win, with a 12-9 playoff record. With Ben for 3 seasons. 161–99–1 (.619) regular season.

 

Super Bowl record for both is 1-1

 

The data are pretty similar (as you've shown here). Objectively, they're quite close.

I think upthread I was comparing the difference between Cowher and Jimmy Johnson vs the difference between Cowher and Tomlin. I think it's fair to say that the better HC was Cowher or Tomlin.

But I think it would be hard to argue that the difference between Cowher and Tomlin is large relative to the difference between either of them and Johnson. With only the stats you listed above, here's Johnson

Johnson: 5 of 9 seasons with a playoff win, with a 9-4 playoff record. 2 SBs. 80-64 (0.556) regular season.

IMO, the biggest differences are that Tomlin was better at getting into the playoffs with teams that weren't great. And Cowher was better at winning games in the playoffs. I think Cowher also generally had higher seeded teams (which probably at least partially accounted for the better record)...because Marty ball worked better in Cowher's tenure IMO.

My guess is we were favored more in Cowher's playoff runs...especially given how our last few playoff appearances were with teams that probably didn't deserve to get in. Which is why I penalize Tomlin less for the playoff record.

Tomlin wouldn't have been a better coach if we missed the playoffs every year after Ben got hurt (like we probably "deserved to"). Even though his playoff record would then look better at 8-7 (0.533)

Tomlin had Ben for longer. But also had him at a higher percentage of the cap, which made the rest of the team worse. Took over the team after a dip in performance despite a good roster. Also coached in a league where Marty-ball type football (which Cowher was still playing even with Ben) worked less and less.

Cowher did more without Ben. His biggest pre-Ben succes was with "Noll's players" pre-Ben...not sure if that discounts his success the same way people discount Tomlin's. Less QB talent, and he seemed to prefer that (Rooney said Cowher wanted an OT instead of Ben, Cowher said that's not true...but waited until after Rooney passed to say it...my guess is that it just means that there were discussions and Rooney's vote was for a QB). Did a great job (along with Tom D IIRC) identifying that Bettis was available and the perfect Marty-ball back. Several soul-crushing playoff losses at home, but they were earlier in his career and he went out on top (especially since many mostly forget his last season).

Both well above average NFL coaches. I don't think either deserves to be in the hall. But IMO Cowher got in because of the special class and because he's a prominent figure on one of the three main companies that were paying the NFL's bills at the time. My guess it that they will eventually put Tomlin in too. Especially if he's also successful on TV like Cowher has been. If it were up to me, he wouldn't get in. Cowher wouldn't have either.

Noll obviously deserves to be in. And while both Cowher and Tomlin were well above average for a long period of time in the NFL, I think they should be in the "Hall of Very Good". Just like Ward, who is among my favorite players I've seen play for the Steelers. But he's just not quite good enough for the Hall. Which is fine. I don't need the HoF to validate whether players I like a lot were good.