Why RBs Don't get Paid Anymore (Freakonomics)

All Pro.. you know what I meant, lol

 

To me, this was Priest Holmes. Who was great.

Obviously, if this were literally true you'd score every possession.

I agree with you that consistency is also important.

That's why I like to look at both YPC (proxy for how many big runs) and succ% (which tells us how well the RB did keeping the team on schedule).

The best backs are good at both (where I believe that good for succ% is > 50%)

Derrick Henry:

• 2024 5.9 YPC 58.8% succ%
• 2025 5.2 YPC 53.2% succ%

Saquon Barkley. I'd be worried about the decline here...like Bell before he fell off the cliff...after the "summer of Lev". But for Barkley this can probably be explained by "NB drafted him in one of his fantasy leagues".

• 2024 5.8 YPC 52.5% succ%
• 2025 4.1 YPC 46.1% succ%

 

I think Barkley's lower numbers are due to offensive line issues. The Eagles' OL was a mess this season.

Barkley still had some real highlight runs where it was all him, particularly later in the season.

 

Strongly agree here.

And I think that kind of shows why I'd personally rather use cap hit and draft capital on the OL vs. the RB.

They also have longer careers and I bet they get catastrophic injuries less.

 

Ok, that last part had me LOLing.

 

Teams focused on Barkley after he carried them on his back to a SB last year.

Hurts and AJ had an awful year. So awful they fired the OC.

Crazy how other teams have a bad year offensively and immediately fire the OC instead of holding on to bad luggage.

 

Are you arguing that teams weren't focusing on Barkley the year he ran for 2k yards?

Because that's...not a great argument IMO.

IMO, the decline is a combination of (a) OL got worse (b) he got older and RBs decline hard especially after huge touch seasons (except freaks like Henry) and (c) 2k yards is crazy high and some decline is inevitable (e.g. Henry went from ~ 1900 yards to ~1600 yards...I guess no one "focused on him" because he didn't quite have 2k yards last year )

 

“Are I arguing that teams weren’t focused on Barkley?” Whaaaat? How they hell did you come to that conclusion?

When it comes to elite players its a chess match. Why would you imply that I meant teams didn’t focus on Barkley in 2024? What teams tried to do in 2024 didn’t work so in 2025 teams changed their approach to stopping him. It worked, the Philly OC was fired because he wasn’t able to counter what defenses were throwing at him. Need I remind you, the other side gets paid too.

When a player runs for a record breaking number of yards in his first year on a new team what do you think the game plan is in 2025? To keep doing what you did in 2024 or do you adapt?

Aaaand this is why the RB compensation argument is bogus.

A year after carrying the Eagles to the SB you wonder if age is a factor in his dip on production. Meanwhile all these players at OLB, QB, WR all have dips in production while making twice as much and its simply because of what???? What exactly are they doing that is so impressive they deserve twice as much as Barkley per year?

 

You seemed to be arguing that part of Barkley's decline this year was because teams were focusing on him.

Which suggests that part of his success last year was because teams weren't focusing on him.

Which doesn't make sense. Because he was dominating teams.

But what did happen? Big changes on their OL.

And again...why do you think teams didn't really "focus" on Henry this year? Why is he only down ~ 300 yards (still a great season at ~ 1600 yards) instead of down 1k yards (OK season at 1k yards) with Barkley. Even though Henry's older (he's a freak among freaks).

You also said part of Barkley's big decline this year was because Hurts regressed. Which is true. But for Henry, his MVP QB missed a significant number of games.

Barkley looks like he's sharply declining this year. We'll see what happens, but it looks like Bell before he fell off the cliff. He also had a "bad" (for a very good RB) looking season in his last year with the Giants. So maybe he bounces back (unlike Bell).

 

why is it so hard to comprehend that teams put MORE focus on stopping Barkley in 2025 after a record breaking season?

I’m not suggesting the OL wasn’t also a factor but the OC was fired for a reason. Its was his first year as an OC and Philly fans said his play calling was booty.

Did you watch the SB last year? Spags admitted the game plan was to stop Barkley. It worked. He only has 88 yards on 22 attempts. But this game plan failed because Hurts hilled them with his feet AND with big pass plays.

and why the hell do you keep bringing up Henry as an example when you admit dude has freakish size and speed?

 

Because Barkley was destroying teams last year. So it seems pretty likely that teams spent more time worrying about him last season than this season.

I agree that Henry is an outlier (among outliers). I keep pointing him out because it's rare to have a guy that's worth the money you'd want to give him later in his career.

 

wait.. you think its easier to stop a creative offense in its first year in the middle of the season vs a whole offseason of tape and the benefit of them losing their OC?

Mahomes doesn’t throw for 5,000 yards and 41 TDs every year. Teams have been throwing different looks at him and the 2 high safety look gave him problems. They adjusted with a string running game. Philly didn’t adjust this year and it showed.

Keep in mind Kellen Moore was the OC in 2024 and was hired as the Saints head coach due to his success in Philly. Maybe the fact that they had a new OC who was terrible at in game adjustments played a part which is why he was fired after 1 year. Hurts refused to endorse him at the end of the season which was telling.

and yes, teams tried and failed last year because the passing game was much better in 2024.

here is a great breakdown of all the problems with the offense in 2025.

https://www.bleedinggreennation.com...-run-game-collapsed-in-2025-and-how-to-fix-it

In 2025, the Eagles are running more outside zone, but with fewer of the elements that previously made it dangerous. Last year, the offense largely lived in inside zone and counter. We saw some trap, outside zone toss, and more motion. The run game was more varied. This years offense has become increasingly zone-heavy, with outside zone taking on a larger share of the run game while gap and pull concepts quietly fade into the background.

and this part..

This season, that stress is fading. Hurts is still mobile, still capable, but he is far less likely to keep the ball by design. Defenses are adjusting accordingly. Linebackers are crashing downhill without hesitation. Edge defenders are aggressively squeezing running lanes. Safeties are inserting earlier into the box. The run game is losing the numbers advantage before it even starts. The running game is all about numbers. The QB being a threat in the run game gives you an extra player! I am a fan of more under center looks (especially play-action) to mix things up, but it takes Hurts out of the play.

 

I’m sorry but I have to go in on you over this terrible post. This makes absolutely no sense NB.

In what world does an NFL defense spend LESS TIME focusing on a player who cooked them the previous year?

“Barkley ran for 225 vs us last year but let’s focus less on him”

C’mon dude.. not to be rude but you sound silly.

I guess the NFL spent even less time focusing on Mahomes since he had his worst statistical output of his career.

Trust me, teams spent way more time focusing on stopping Barkley this year. Imagine an owner walking into a meeting and the DC says we are going to focus less on Barkley this year because last year we focused more and failed.

Delete that post dude

 

Remember your argument is “Barkley ran for 225 last week but let’s wait until next year to worry about him”

 

That was never my argument. You don’t play the same team every week and you don’t play the same schedule every year.

Unless you face a team outside your division in the playoffs chances are slim you are going to face the same team the next year.

Do you think the Steelers were saying “let’s wait until next week to stop James Cook?” after he ran all over us on the same damn play? You do realize 2024 was Barkley’s first year in Philly? Its not like teams had a ton of tape on how to defend Barkley, Hurts, AJ Brown and Smith.


What you will face is different teams who have a year of tape to watch what worked and what didn’t work and if you are smart you implement schemes that worked to stop him.

and that STILL doesn’t guarantee that you will stop him but it helps. Its why people always say “now that we have tape on a QB or offense” let’s see how they fair next year.

and now some fun facts.

Rams faced Barkley twice in 2024. First time he rushed for 255. In the playoffs he rushed for 205.

How was this possible since they gave Barkley more attention to him the second time? Here’s how. First possession of the game Hurts runs RPO and rushes for a 44 yard TD. The rest is history because now you have to account for Hurts hurting you which opens up more lanes later in the game. Barkley rips off runs of 62 yards and 78 yards to ice the game.

another fun fact. Did you know that Derek Henry has faced the Steelers 7 times and only eclipsed 100 yards twice. Both times as a Ravens and both times in the last 2 years. Remember the playoffs last year, we kept crashing down on Henry and Lamar cooked us early in the game?

Its chess my guy. Teams adjust every year. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t. Most times if fans are lucky the team fires the OC or DC when they fail miserably. This is why Philly moved on. They didn’t make adjustments and they stopped doing what worked well for them. Running Hurts is part of their offense and its big part of his game and if they stop doing it, the offense is going to be more predictable and easier to defend.

but one last reminder.

Philly won a SB in 2024. Maybe they wanted to protect Hurts after a great yet physical season with all the tush pushing? Maybe the OC sucked? We shall see how they adjust with a new OC. Hurts ran 33% LESS in 2024 than in 2025. You should read the link I posted on the issues with the rushing offense.

 

Ultimately, I think the questions here are:

1. Do you think that Barkley's performance was disappointing this year? I'd say getting ~ 1k fewer yards than last year == yes.
2. Do you think that Barkey is declining? Again, I think that the huge drop in yards, and YPC (for some reason he doesn't have succ% on pfr from 2021 - 2024, but presumably that's down too) all point to yes.

 

He did have 45 fewer rushing attempts (about 1/3 drop). I wonder how much of this was that they weren't in 3rd / 4th and 1 as often?

The threw the ball ~ 50 times more last year. Had more passing yards. better TD%. Better INT% (although only marginally).

His yards / attempt and AY/A were lower.

I think this suggest that maybe they were running the "passing is the new running" offense because the running game was appreciably worse this year. At least that's what having a bunch more attempts in the passing game (with a corresponding reduction in Barkley's carries) and shorter throws suggests to me.

Ultimately, Hurts' performance looks pretty similar. Nowhere near the same kind of decline as Barkley had this year.

 

Hurts averaged 675 yards a season his previous 4 years. He had 421 yards rushing in 2025. There aren’t enough tush pushes to make up for those 354 yards on 45 carries. Tush push is a yard or 2 most times.

 

That's the answer. 2024 the Eagles had Kellen Moore at OC. 2025 they had an amateur Patullo at OC.

 

1. Yes, but AJ Brown also had his worst year as an Eagle. Hurts was also bad.

2. No. I think the new OC was in over his head.

2024 yards before contact: Barkley led the league with 1380 yards and a league leading 3.8 average.

2025 ybc Barkley dropped to 8th with 689 yards and was tied for 14th among RB’s with a 2.5 average.

 

Sometimes you have to zoom out and see the full picture.

The offense as a whole fell off a cliff. No one is going to say Hurts had a good year because of his stats. When they needed plays there weren’t made like they usually were in previous years.

Hurts had 5 OC’s in 5 years. That is insane and in that time span he has been to 2 SB’s.

 

Super Bowl MVP is RB Kenneth Walker III