3rd round selections

Looking at Ravens: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/rav/draft.htm
Looking at Rams: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/ram/draft.htm

That is not exactly a murder's row of highly accomplished third round picks. There are some gems and some solid contributors. But some misses as well.

Looking at 2020 forward - Rams got Ernest Jones. Ravens got Madubike and Simpson. Steelers got Highsmith. Rest for all three teams is harder to evaluate. Do not know enough to assess each roster.

Just picked those two teams at random since they usually are viewed as drafting well.

 

I'm not saying I don't want better picks. I hope for each Steelers pick to be an annual all pro. But that's fan expectations.

Rational expectations can be derived from evaluation of comparable peer teams.

Based on that , maybe Steelers are batting average to a bit above.

 

Using info from PFF, the average hit rate for Day 2 picks is about 30%. This success varies by position so it gets more complicated to do a deep dive. If you consider Rd2+ picks generally have at least one serious flaw in their game, it would be unusual for a single team to consistently hit.

Ima firm believer that player analytics can help find the gems among the chaff. Baltimore has one of the largest analytics departments in the NFL. They've been pretty successful with Rd3 picks, including: Mark Andrews, Orlando Brown, Justin Madubuike, Devin Duvernay, Travis Jones. And the Steelers have grabbed of few of their picks as FAs; Malik Harrison, Chris Wormley, Miles Boykin, Carl Davis.

 

It should be interesting to see what the Steelers brain trust do with this many picks. Only
time will tell. I hope they will be proactive and try to draft difference makers, game changers.

 

He was a reach to me. Your right he was projected maybe even as a 2nd rounder. He fell down the draft board for a reason. Sometimes the teams know more than the draft "experts".

 

Well hope is that at least one catches on

But with three 3rds hitting could stock the roster in which is needed for home grown talent.

A left guard is sorely needed as Seumalo's contract is up after the season.

 

Are we talking league average for third round picks or talking Steelers specifically?



These 3rd round picks are still on the roster:
Kaleb Johnson
Roman Wilson
Peyton Wilson
Darnell Washington
DeMarvin Leal
Alex Highsmith
Mason Rudolph



Looking at the draft history for the Steelers, the weak spot for the 3rd round was from 2011-2015.

 

It's not as if he was getting three yards per carry. He averaged a healthy 6.4 yards per carry in an offense that relied almost entirely on him. It wasn't exactly difficult for opposing defenses to know what was coming.

 

That OL must have been special.

 

Sure.

When you run a 4.6 forty or whatever and you're playing Big 10 Lbers that also run a 4.6 then you're gonna be okay.

When you're in the NFL and the Lbers run faster than you...you're going to struggle.

Just a theory. Maybe it's as simple as the other guys are better and Rodgers hates rookies?

 

Maybe, or he was a hell of a college back whose skills haven't translated on the next level, at least not yet.

 

Here is your choice to land a star WR.

1) Draft a WR in the 1st round
2) Sign a free agent WR in his prime for $35 million

If you wait to the later rounds you get Roman Wilson, or if you go 30+ years old and cheap you get what the Steelers currently have in Thielen, Scantling, Miller.

There are some Super Star WRs in the draft this year, but you are going to have to Draft them in the 1st round.

 

I get that the task is large and I have no interest in doing it.

I am going to stick by the statement that without making a detailed comparison (and you can certainly shorten the timespan to less than 15 years) you are just shooting from the hip with no real data supporting the claim.

I tend to agree with you that it seems like the team is missing on too many mid-round picks...but then I scroll through something like this....https://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/rounds/round_3

And it doesn't really look all that great for any team out there. Not consistently. Take 2024 for instance. Payton Wilson might be the "best" pick of the entire 3rd round. Mostly because I am not sure anyone else from that round has emerged as a consistent starter.

Then we can look at 2022 and I can see a few players I would rather have as Steelers instead of Demarvin Leal.

So win some and lose some?

 

You can't do that though my friend. Otherwise how would you judge anything?
They could be great players if they weren't playing against other players. LoL. You actually have to have something to judge it against.

 

If you want to lump apples, potatoes, and fish into one big comparison and try and draw conclusions...then I guess they are all food so go ahead?

Little point in comparing Colbert and Khan collectively. Too different front offices. Little point in comparing drafts WITH Ben R and without - totally different team building strategies. Totally different cap situations as well.

But just to take a whirl at it...what is an acceptable hit rate on 3rd round draft picks for you? 50%? 75%? 90%? And what is a "hit"? Starter? Pure back-up? Situational player? I am honestly curious.

 

Your point here is full of holes and examples that prove it incorrect. History is full of great WRs drafted in the 3rd round and beyond.

 

5 down,ten to go.

 

I agree, and I've never really put it to the test, and checked, but
I believe I can remember more great Wrs that weren't drafted in the first two rounds than were.
So as of now, I must agree with you.

 

My whole point is that I just don't like drafting WRs, RBs, and TEs in the first round. That's just on me. I subscribe to the philosophy of, QB, someone to protect the QB, or someone to get after the QB. The rest you get later in the draft.