The percentage of 1st-round picks that “hit” or “miss by position from 2000 to 2019....

I like drafting big lumps. To me, your offense fails even before you get to how good your QB is, if your o-line stinks. Everything else you have on your roster is waste of time if you can't block.

Of course the single most impactful position will always be QB - but as a group that impact is almost equalled by the offensive line.

 

That’s very interesting. I’m surprised LB is that high and I’m a bit surprised RB, DT and WR are so low.

 

QB and WR shocked me a bit.

 

Centers hits
Need center.
Sounds like we should go center

 

Please note: one of the major qualifiers is "signed a second contract with the team that drafted them." A lot of WR's do their five years and then sign a massive contract with another team, which makes them misses.

 

I posted a study about this last year or the year before. They used a sample size of 25 years and broke things down a bit further. They went as far as showing success rates through the 7th round.

 

I'm so skeptical about the QBs I almost want to calculate it myself

 

good catch.

 

good point.

this is another example of lies, damn lies and statistics.

the devil ALWAYS is in the details, as many are pointing out

 

Based on this Graham Barton it is.

 

I love these charts and find it is interesting to see why the data fell like it did.

this chart could also be titled, "positions most replaceable'. Second contracts are expensive so how easily can the player be replaced by a college draft pick. WR is definitely the deepest position in the draft in the last 10 years, which explains why it is at the bottom. The others in red have a similar story. Just go get another one when the price is too high. CB is in the red but for a different reason....talented WRs are putting the CBs in the unemployment line so teams HAVE to go get another one.

 

TBH, Edmunds would be a hit by most metrics. My favorite one to use is whether or not the player is a long-term starter (4+ years) which Edmunds was for 5 years, and last year was a 1/3 time starter. He wasn't a huge hit by any means, but it is hard to consider him a miss by any true metric aside from we wanted more out of a first round pick.

I dislike the second contract metric simply because that counts guys like Hargrave, Emmanuel Sanders, Mike Wallace, etc. as "misses" when they were clearly "hits". Baker would be considered a "miss" although it looks like he is going to carve out a pretty solid career as an NFL starter. Leveon? Miss. Shazier? Same. Bad metric IMO. Slants things. I'd like to know who turned out to be great, good, decent, or bad players. Seems like a better place to judge from.

 

50/50 odds is my guess w him, but the other 50% is with one of the 3/4 big ugly T's......one of the F's......or Mims

I'd STILL trade our #1 to SF for Aiyuk!!!!!

 

The reasoning behind C is that so few C's actually get drafted in the first. These are the most elite prospects at the position that get taken in the first. Heck, good day-1 starters are considered round 2 prospects (Creed Humphery was pick 63). Its pretty telling when only 12 guys are taken in the first round at C in the past 20 years.

Makes it even more proof that some of the worrying we are doing about not getting a C if we don't take one at 20 is a bit unfounded. We will very likely be able to pick a guy up in the second round (at 51 or via slight trade up) that we want. Having 3 C's go in the first 50 picks would be a surprising deviation from the norm. I don't think this year's center class is decorated enough to break the typical mold.

 

I would also be in on a trade for Aiyuk. We'd still be able to get our C in round 2 and a slot CB in the 3rd. Our offense would actually feel dangerous again with Pickens/Aiyuk/Muth to pair with a good run game bolstered by an improved OL.

 

Your probably right but if we trade away pick 51 then it gets a little tricky.

 

Well that chart about lines up with our success rate at drafting CB in any round. We broke the mold however in drafting WR’s in later rounds to boot.

 

I am on the phone w LYNCH right now and telling him this: "you have until we have the 20th pick card in our hand. You have our first round pick, for Aiyuk. Call me"

We can get a C and RT w picks 2 and 3 (move up with draft capital if we have to).

We only need 4 players from this draft (+ Aiyuk) to WIN THIS YEAR.

Get other fill ins from UDFA and 1 yr FA deals in May / June.

there it is!

 

This doesn't show the other rounds... Example:.what if more centers are taken in ....let's say the 4th round, and with the same hit rate......should we then just wait until the 4th round???? All I'm say is all this shows is the hit rate of the 1st...if You notice....only 12 were taken in 19 years. The hit rate should be high.

 

Exactly....it also stands to mind You would have a higher Hit rate for example: center...there are only 12 taken in 19 years ...over edge which had a 104 taken. Without looking at the list....I could tell You who would have the better hit rate out of those examples.

 

We need a center bad. I don't want to have a 60% chance on round two of a center. Also everyone and their dead great grandmaw who doesn't know how to spell nfl, know we need a center. So if we skip in the first. You better believe teams will jump ahead of us in the second.

 

This.


What the hell constitutes as a hit?!


A second contract with the team?! Seems like the obvious one but that alone cannot be the deciding factor. What about accomplishments of each player per their draft position?! What about the accomplishments of the players themselves?!

 

More like the team had better go for one if all options are exhausted in Round One.


If not in Round One?! Omar MUST work that phone in Round 2. Otherwise... oof.