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Kenny Pickett analysis

Discussion in 'Steelers Talk' started by BobbyBiz, Apr 29, 2022.

  1. JackAttack 5958

    JackAttack 5958 Well-Known Member

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    How can you say the Steelers should have drafted Willis over Pickett when the entire NFL did not feel that Willis was worthy of a first round pick…or a second round pick…and barely worthy of a late 3rd round pick. Ridder was picked before Willis for crying out loud. So every NFL team had the opportunity to vet Willis ad nauseam and found him wanting. He’s a great athlete, built like a running back and has a lively arm, but they obviously found enough flaws in his game to send him plummeting down the draft board. I wish him well in Tennessee, but I don’t think he’ll be the next Russell Wilson. Would have been apoplectic if the Steelers had drafted Willis when Pickett was also on the board but thankfully they had Pickett rated higher. I also would have been okay if they had drafted Willis IF Pickett was gone and let him develop for a couple of seasons under Trubisky.

    My question is this; if a team had taken Pickett prior to the Steelers pick, would they have taken Malik Willis? If so, they were much more enamored with him than other teams were.
     
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  2. Blast Furnace

    Blast Furnace Staff Member Mod Team

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    I feel the same about Pickett and Howell. But for me its not even so much about Pickett as it is Willis. I know how you feel about him, I get all that but I said almost exactly what JT just said. Look at the QB’s in this division, Id rather swing for the fences and miss with Willis than go with a safe floor but inferior QB to the rest of the division.

    I can live with Carr/Cousins, I wanted more than that. We still have to hope Pickett can even live up to those comparisons.
     
  3. Blast Furnace

    Blast Furnace Staff Member Mod Team

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    Such a flawed argument, really is. Draft history is littered with examples of players who outperformed their draft position. Tom Brady says hi.

    As for the highlighted part, I think absolutely they would have but we will never know. I can counter with how do you know Pickett wouldn’t have dropped with the rest of them had the Steelers not chosen him? After all, he was passed on by very QB needy teams, some of them had two first rd picks.
     
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  4. JackAttack 5958

    JackAttack 5958 Well-Known Member

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    I think the consensus among the NFL is that Pickett was the much safer pick so the Steelers made the right decision. We’ll know in 5 years whether or not it works out. I don’t get the whole “Pickett has a higher floor but Willis has a higher ceiling” argument. This is just the spin doctors saying that Willis is the better athlete. But I don’t think he’s that much better athletically. Picket’s arm is plenty strong enough although not quite as lively as Willis’s. Pickett ran a 4.69 40 while Willis didn’t run but the word is that his 40 time would have been comparable to that. It certainly would not have been in the sub 4.5 area like Ridder’s. Pickett played against superior competition and was consistently good in about every game he played. Willis played against inferior competition and laid eggs in multiple games. So I don’t get this “Willis has a higher ceiling” argument. I think Pickett is ascending and has a high ceiling himself.

    I like Willis. It’s impossible NOT to like this kid. I really hope he goes on to have a successful NFL career. My son is a Liberty grad and still lives in Lynchburg so I’ll be rooting for Willis almost as much as I was rooting for Eric Green. But I still don’t think the Steelers should have wasted one second trying to decide between Willis and Pickett. That was an easy decision. And I said this in another thread and will reiterate it here. There is no way Pickett would have fallen out of the first round had he gotten past the Steelers. The phones would have been ringing off the hook with teams trying to trade into the first round to grab him. That fifth year option is huge for what could be a franchise quarterback.
     
    Last edited: Apr 30, 2022
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  5. FootballAnalyst98

    FootballAnalyst98 Well-Known Member

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    He's definitely not russell Wilson. Russ was only passed on cause of his height. Ability wise he was a high first round pick.

    Can't really say cause teams passed on him that means it's a mistake. We've seen throughout history teams wrongly pass on a guy who turned out to be the best of his class. Plenty of qb needy teams passed on Pickett too. I don't think he's a first rounder if the steelers don't take him. And now all this draft stuff is irrelevant. Now it's going to be time to prove what they can do on the field. 1st or 3rd round when they throw either of them in the game, they're going to be expected to produce. When the smoke clears let's see who's standing.
     
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  6. JackAttack 5958

    JackAttack 5958 Well-Known Member

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    I’m absolutely convinced that somebody would have traded into the backend of the first to draft Pickett if the Steelers hadn’t. If you can get a potential franchise quarterback at the end of the first round, much later than he was projected to go, and a fifth year option you’ve got to do it. That’s why the Ravens traded back into the first to draft Jackson a few years back.
     
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  7. steel machine

    steel machine Well-Known Member

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    I can't remember a draft where a QB was taken so late in the first round. It is obvious that NFL teams didn't like what they saw coming out of the NCAA this year.

    Sure hope we found a diamond in the rough.
     
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  8. Steel_Elvis

    Steel_Elvis Staff Member Mod Team

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    The argument really isn’t flawed. Go back to Tom Brady and find QBs drafted in the 3rd round or later since Tom who had a big enough impact to say that they should have been drafted sooner. It’s a small list. Dak Prescott in 2016; Russel Wilson, Kirk Cousins, and (maybe) Nick Foles in 2012, and (maybe) Ryan Fitzpatrick in 2005. That’s 3-5 in 20+ years. Compare that to the literally dozens of 1st and 2nd round draft busts at the QB position during that same span. When NFL teams make mistakes on QBs in the draft, it’s much more likely to be over drafting a QB than mistakenly passing on them early.
     
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  9. Blast Furnace

    Blast Furnace Staff Member Mod Team

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    Draft position proves nothing. Their play on the field will be what proves which teams were right and which were wrong.
     
  10. Steelcitian

    Steelcitian Well-Known Member

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    Which Kenny would you start?
    [​IMG]
     
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  11. FootballAnalyst98

    FootballAnalyst98 Well-Known Member

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    He's not lamar jackson. Lamar primarily was passed on because the qb needy teams had others guys higher than him and of course some did due to doubts. 4 qbs were taken before lamar. No other qbs were taken before Pickett so wasn't like teams that needed a qb said well we either can take him or someone else. They all said no thank you we'll wait till next yr. So no I don't think he's taken in the backend of the first round like lamar was because they were in entirely different draft circumstances.

    These projections don't mean much. Willis or alot was projected higher than Pickett and he wasn't on any of the teams boards. Projections don't matter. How you see the draft unfolding is what matters.
     
  12. mikeyg

    mikeyg Well-Known Member

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    i agree, but if they did not want to waste those talents, why not GO BIG in the offseason with one of the proven QB's - just win now baby - R Wilson, for starters.

    is Pickett a similar version to Mitch? Who starts - is Pickett just basically handed the job? the bottom line is that Canada sucks, I think. We will see.....
     
  13. Steel_Elvis

    Steel_Elvis Staff Member Mod Team

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    What it proves, irrefutably, is that the odds are very much against all 32 teams being wrong in passing on a particular QB through the 1st and 2nd rounds. It doesn’t mean that there’s zero chance of one of these QBs making it, but history shows that the collective wisdom of the NFL talent evaluators (who know far more about these guys than we or the media draftniks) is usually spot on when they pass on QBs. Not 100%, but a very solid track record when they pass. Unfortunately the odds are much higher that we drafted a bust in Pickett than 32 teams being wrong on the rest of the QBs. It’s simple statistics and probabilities based on actual data.
     
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  14. Blast Furnace

    Blast Furnace Staff Member Mod Team

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    Until you show me hard data I don’t agree with your premise. 32 teams pass on a player every single year that they are wrong about.
     
  15. JackAttack 5958

    JackAttack 5958 Well-Known Member

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    I HOPE he’s not Lamar Jackson. I’d like to see us make a little noise in the post season. :facepalm:
     
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  16. FootballAnalyst98

    FootballAnalyst98 Well-Known Member

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    So why isn't nick foles a starter currently?
     
  17. Steel_Elvis

    Steel_Elvis Staff Member Mod Team

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    http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/qb

    Here’s the list. You’ll need to be damn creative to find more than 5 third round or later QBs since 2000 who turned into valuable starters. You’ll also see that there are plenty of over drafted busts. No need to crunch the numbers in Excel. It’s pretty damn obvious to anyone who can tally up numbers on a piece of paper.

    Again, that’s not to say that the 3rd round and later QBs are all 100% destined to fail, but the collective wisdom of the people who actually evaluate and draft QBs for a living is pretty solid when it comes to saying “no” to QBs early.
     
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  18. JackAttack 5958

    JackAttack 5958 Well-Known Member

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    I’ll bite…why?
     
  19. FootballAnalyst98

    FootballAnalyst98 Well-Known Member

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    Because while postseason success does matter, its more to the story then that. Rodgers has failed the last decade in the postseason. You wouldn't want him on the steelers rn? Everyone except like 7 teams wouldn't want him.
     
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  20. JackAttack 5958

    JackAttack 5958 Well-Known Member

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    I don’t know Jin but I’m sure she’s a fine RN. ;)

    My point is that DCs around the NFL are smart and they’ll eventually figure out how to stop a QB who relies on their legs and has accuracy issues throwing the ball. I’m much more excited about Pickett’s skill set since he’s deadly accurate, has above average mobility and the intangibles it takes to be successful at the next level.
     
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  21. Blast Furnace

    Blast Furnace Staff Member Mod Team

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    I was talking about all players in general which is why I couldn’t understand you making such a broad claim. Narrowing it down to QB’s, yes, you are correct.

    My original argument still stands, nothing is proven until players get on the field. .

    We’ll revisit this, you can be damn sure I won’t let anyone forget.
     
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  22. S.T.D

    S.T.D Well-Known Member

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    No...He's HOF material now.
    Though You know Me I wanted D in the 1st, and Howell was also My guy for the 2nd, but everyone told Me We couldn't get Him in the 2nd. LoL. Hell We could have Got D in the 1st, and everyone else We picked, and still Got Howell.
    I've seen the error of My ways . Pickett is a future HOF player for us.
     
  23. S.T.D

    S.T.D Well-Known Member

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    Big Question....How come when I use Brady as an example....You say...Well everyone is not T. Brady...that's Your go 2 Guy, ....but....here ....You are using T. Brady as an example???. :shrug:LoL
     
  24. S.T.D

    S.T.D Well-Known Member

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    You can't use .....We will know in 5 years....unless that's the cut off point.
    Because I like 6 years, and Have been laughed at repeatedly because of it. They say that's 2 long. :shrug:
     
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  25. JackAttack 5958

    JackAttack 5958 Well-Known Member

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    Anybody got 7 years? :lolol:
     
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