When do we draft a QB first

I expect this to be revisited in the off season, slow time...... here's my initial input.

It depends on critical criteria....

1) Ben ability and availability
2) Ben's replacement already on the roster....how good is he?... upside?
3)Whats available in the draft and can we get him?

Right now we can only partially speak on Ben....
His last contract year is 2019, 4 seasons from this season... this is his 12th season, 2019 will be is 16th season. His cap hit in 2019 is 23 mil and cap savings if cut will be 17 mil. Only way he plays in 2019 is if he's on the top of his game or if he's not but still serviceable and no backup better than him.

2018 he also has a 23mil cap hit and a 11 mil saving if cut. Most likely he'll play if he's healthy as long as the next Aaron Rodgers isnt on the Bench behind him.

All that being said Landry's play this year will dictate where we go. 2016 draft is most likely out unless we get a kirk cousins 3rd rd or derek carr 2nd rd or Rodgers 1st rd scenario. 2017 is most likely the target year.

Cajun

 

I don't expect the Steelers to ever cut Ben. Heck Peyton and Brady are still playing. Ben will get another contract. No need to go first round until the year after Ben retires, just in case he comes back like Favre.

 

Well Brady is arguably the best QB in the NFL. He can play until he isn't in the convo.

Peyton looks good to the Broncos because they went from Cutler to Orton to Tebow. This should be Peyton's last year. In fact, last year should have been Peyton's last year.

 

The next QB may already be on the roster - we'll see how Landry shakes out with some opportunities over the next few years. If he ain't the one, need to find someone who would fit well in whatever system we are running - if he is there for the taking - take him.

 

If cardale Jones fell a bit, I wouldn't mind taking a 3rd or 4th rd. Flyer on him

 

Peyton and Brady are two of the least sacked QBs in the NFL during their career. Ben has been on the most sacked list. It takes a toll. He has has more injuries than those two combined.

Dont be fooled. This is a business first. They convinced Troy to retire, replaced LeBeau, let Woodson walk.....even Franco didnt finish here.

Cajun

 

I misspoke, Cousins was drafted in the 4th rd and I wouldnt hesitate one moment to draft him in the 4th...... I the right offense he would thrive......

Cajun

 

Jones is not the QB of the future for this team.. Assuming Ben plays another 5+ years, Jones will already be in his 30s and would have received at least one or two contract extensions by that time. Backup QBs do not get "locked up" for years like starters do. There's a good chance he will eventually leave to chase a starting opportunity if he continues to show some promise. He's not going to stay here if he thinks he can start for another team. We're going to ride the Big Ben train until the bitter end. The FO won't want to waste early round picks on guys who can't immediately help a Big Ben led team. Barring some fluke year and a generational QB falls to us a couple years from now, like Luck and the Colts a few years ago, we won't draft a QB early for a number of years. And even then, Manning was already on his way out the door. So the comparison isn't really there.

The Packers got lucky with Rodgers. Favre was supposed to retire within a year, two at most, from the time Rodgers was drafted. That was why they took Rodgers so early. Had they known Favre would delay retirement by several years, they more than likely would have taken an immediate impact guy since Favre and the Packers were still playing at a high level and chasing a ring. At the time of the draft, there was no guarantee he would become a HOF caliber player either. He fell for a reason.

 

Have you spoken with Kevin about this?

 

yep. i have to agree with this strummer and 43. it does also depends on jones and if he keeps improving up until that point.

 

Not as of yet. I am hoping he scans the message boards . If we get some scouts watching his tapes I am sure they will see a lot of Big Ben type qualities ....A few weeks back he powered through a Face Mask and made a huge throw downfield . That 1 play put a lot about his skills on display....

 

I would say wait for these qbs that have been in the league for about 3yrs and see if we can get the one that we wouldve drafted 3yrs ago

 

You take Paxton Lynch next year. The future Big Ben clone.

 

Defining "franchise quarterback" is a bit vague as the finer points are going to vary a bit based on personal opinion. That aside, how many franchise quarterbacks can you name from the past 20 or so years? Cross that with the the number of quarterbacks taken and the attrition rate starts to jump out.

Here's a list of the QB's drafted since '91 (coincidentally the last time Detroit won a game in Wisoconsin before today) that started at least 90 professional games. 90 is purely an arbitrary number I chose denoting roughly five years' worth of games started. Doesn't mean the QB is question was necessarily good for those 90 games, but there was at least some reason they kept getting the call. For those selected within the past five to seven years I went with those that may hit 90 based on their current pace, and omitted this year's class.

Year Rd.Pick QB (G started)

2014 1.3 Blake Bortles (21)
2014 1.32 Teddy Bridgewater (20)
2014 2.36 Derrick Carr (24)

2013 none (Best: 2.39 Geno Smith (29))

2012 1.1 Andrew Luck (55)
2012 1.8 Ryan Tannehill (56)
2012 3.76 Russell Wilson (56)

2011 1.1 Cam Newton (70)
2011 2.35 Andy Dalton (72)

2010 1.1 Sam Bradford (57)

2009 1.1 Matthew Stafford (85)

2008 1.3 Matt Ryan (119)
2008 1.18 Joe Flacco (120)

2007 none (3.92 Trent Edwards (32))

2006 1.11 Jay Cutler (126)

2005 1.1 Alex Smith (113)
2005 1.24 Aaron Rodgers (111)
2005 7.250 Ryan Fitzpatrick!! (98)

2004 1.1 Eli Manning (176)
2004 1.4 Phillip Rivers (153)
2004 1.11 Ben Roethlisberger (163)
2004 4.90 Matt Schaub (90)

2003 1.1 Carson Palmer (151)

2002 none (4.108 David Gerrard (76))

2001 1.1 Michael Vick (115)
2001 2.32 Drew Brees (209)

2000 6.168 Marc Bulger (95)
2000 6.199 Tom Brady (215)

1999 1.2 Donovan McNabb (161)
1999 1.11 Daunte Cullpepper (100)
1999 4.131 Aaron Brooks (90)

1998 1.1 Peyton Manning (264)
1998 6.187 Matt Hasselbeck (157)

1997 2.62 Jake Plummer (136)

1996 none (2.42 Tony Banks (78))

1995 1.3 Steve McNair (153)
1995 1.5 Kerry Collins (180)

1994 1.6 Trent Dilfer (113)
1994 7.197 Gus Ferrotte (93)

1993 1.1 Drew Bledsoe (193)
1993 5.118 Mark Brunell (151)
1993 8.222 Trent Green (113)

1992 6.166 Jeff Blake (100)
1992 9.227 Brad Johnson (125)

1991 2.33 Brett Favre (298)

In total, 293 QB's were selected over this span; 41 logged (or are on pace for) 90 or more starts. I'd argue maybe half of these would be considered face of a franchise. You have to take the BPA. Forcing timing onto talent assessment skews value and can really screw up your draft board.

 

Kind of surprised that Drew Bledsoe and Kerry Collins each pushed 200 games started.

As for selecting a QB, we aren't quite at the point when we should be looking outside the third day for one. Right now we need to find a new #3.

 

Yeah, my point was more to how in the great cauldron of QB's coming out of college it can be difficult enough just finding someone that sticks as a starter for 4-5 years, much less be your franchise. Thus, it's a little hard to envision being able to call your year in terms of drafting Ben's replacement.

 

Right, considering on average only two come out per year that are long-term starters.

I've always been in support of taking a QB every year, gradually ramping up the cost of investment as the current franchise QB ages.

 

It won't be for years.

They will take a QB here and there in the later rounds like they've always done in all drafts.

 

we may see if they re-sign jones after next year and for how long. a lot could depend on coaching staff by that time too. there are not a lot of pro set qb's coming from college programs so we may have to look sooner rather than later so we have time to get the bad habits ironed out. this makes for considering a guy like jones for the position all that more important since he would have gone through this training already and having years in the system if haley would stick around or fichtner stays. the worst thing we could do is wait until ben has a year or two left and expect to just say now we'll pick our guy. they don't grow on trees.

 

If the Team is going to wait until Ben's time is short they better be building a very strong Team around him .The only way to stay competitive without a Franchise QB is with a great Defense and a Great Running game...

We will need 3 or 4 DB'S another RB and probably a couple of more run blocking OL to put that together...

 

2018 at the earliest. Most great QB's don't even have their big stat seasons til after 30-31 years of age. So baring a horrible Injury...Ben to me has at least 4 years of 4700-5000 yard seasons ahead of him. Drafting a 1st round QB too soon will only be a hinderence cause both he and his agent will want him getting playing time ASAP to enhance his future contract. So I say 2018 or 19 would be a good time to seek out another QB to replace Ben.