What are Reasonable Expectations for Mike McCarthy in year one with the Steelers?

Reading back on my comment...I agree the bold part is silly. Thanks for pointing out my lack of reading comprehension on Lemming's post

But the 2nd part is still relevant IMO.

It is possible to win when you score for the other team. But it probably requires a generational defense like the Steel Curtain. Or for one team to be much better than the other (most recent KC playoff game). We were not a lot than Jax (they blew us out in the regular season and we never had a chance to take the lead in the playoff game, so I think it's pretty clear they were the better team).

In games like Jax and Cle, the O+D dug a hole that was too big for the O to dig out of (and the D really only gave them one opportunity). Particularly since the D was not anywhere close to the caliber of the Steel Curtain (read: the D in the Jax and Browns games sucked).

Scoring for the other team doesn't mean a 0% win%. But it does mean something like a 10% - 20% win%. There are outliers. But having a DTD has to be the best predictor of winning in the NFL, right?

IMO the bottom line on the Jax game is that they were just a terrible match up for us. We were pretty good at stopping the pass (played the Pats tight even without 50). But couldn't stop a heavy run. And their D owned our offense across 2 games anytime the game was within 10 points.

 

AB off field antics will keep him out of HOF
Walking off field in middle of game and was it the final game of his NFL career?
Barry Bonds might not ever make MLB HOF. One helluva ball player, just like AB , but alleged steroid use and off field antics with media and some say he was downright an ass hole. Will prevent him from getting in.

 

This.

And also for the draft to finish. And signings that happen post-draft and after camp cuts.

But I don't think anyone will predict we win the division again without looking through heavily Steelers-tinted glasses.

 

Antonio Brown is eligible for the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2027, and while his on-field production (928 receptions, 12,291 yards, 83 TDs, 4x All-Pro) is worthy of induction, his numerous off-field legal issues and erratic career exit make him a highly controversial candidate whose induction is not guaranteed.

• Case for Induction: From 2013-2018, Brown was arguably the best receiver in the NFL, recording 4 consecutive First-team All-Pro selections and leading the league in receptions and yards twice. He is on the 2010s All-Decade Team.
• Case Against Induction: His career was marked by quitting on teams (Steelers, Buccaneers) and significant off-field issues, including a 2025 attempted murder charge. Voters consider character, and his actions are seen by some to violate the spirit of the honor, say users on Reddit.
• Outlook: While former teammates and staff like Kevin Colbert think he belongs in the Hall, say posts on SteelersNow, his inclusion is a subject of intense debate among fans, as discussed on Reddit. Some feel his short peak is enough, while others feel his career ending and personal behavior will keep him out, argue users on Reddit.

 

It does not require the 70s defense. BEN has won in the playoffs despite 2 turnovers throwing a pick 6.
I am not arguing that DTDs are not relevant. What I am saying is that an offensive explosion of the magnitude we saw that day would overcome it save for terrible defense. We NEVER lose that game on a previous Steeler team since 72.

 

It is possible (but very unlikely) to win a game when you give up a DTD. Pointing to the edge cases doesn't disprove that.

No one is arguing that the defense in the Jax (or Cle) games were good.

Everyone agrees they were terrible.

I'm sure that everyone also agrees that when you have a DTD you are very likely to lose.

And that in the small number of cases where you win when you give up a DTD, you need a defense that isn't horrible.

 

Ahem, I view us as division champions in 2025.

We were better than the past his running and injury prime, low IQ Jackson and the Ravens. The best running QBs have shorter shelfs lives. Look it up. Good luck Lamar. Though the Ravens remain a serious competition.

We are also better than the made of glass Joe Burrow and the poorly run Bengals.

I think we are favorite to repeat as division champions in 2026, over any team! Heavily tinted glasses or not.

 

If you think this will happen, I'm sure you can get great odds on any of the sports bet platforms.

We're currently something like +500 if you want to bet (depending on the platform).

So if you put down $100 and we win the division, you get ~$500 + your original $100.

Also...if Rodgers ends up being our QB, I'm not sure we want to be arguing that a QB who's past his prime or brittle can't win the division.

 

I will wager us over another AFC North team. This is not an us vs. the felid bet. Now do you know a sucker who will take this bet?

 

Except when Cowher played Marty Ball like in the 94 AFCCG and lost to freaking Stan Humphries and the Chargers .

 

They were up by 10 points in this game,not 11 points or more but yeah this one was awful,nobody said otherwise

 

LoL. Do You go back , and read what You write. LOL
You contradict your own self. LoL

 

How did I contradict myself? Final score of Colts vs Steelers was 51-34, Steelers... Ben 6 TDs. 17 point difference. 3 scores, not 4. Final score of Ravens vs Steelers was 43-23, Steelers... Ben 6 TDs. 20 point difference. 3 scores, not 4.

Another nugget... the very next week, after 12 TDs in 2 games from offense/Ben, the Popcorn led Steelers lost to the Vick led Jets 20-13.

 

With one of the worst gameplan ever!

I mean, their game plan at the start was to run the ball and with short passes, even though the Jets had a good front seven and were strong against the run, but had a terrible secondary.
They started to open up the playbook when they were down 17-0, but it was too late.

It was so frustrating, and Tomlin blamed the loss on turnovers but they were already down 10-0 before the first one (that turnover was on a terrible screen call by Haley in traffic, and AB fumbled). The other three turnovers were when Ben had to force things on offense, down by three score. Also, it was terrible to put James Harrison as a tight end in the goal-line situation Not everyone can be Mike Vrabel.

It was a horrible game by the coaching staff.

 

WHAT?!?! FIRST TIME HEARING THAT!! DAMN!

 

When you gotta go back THREE DECADES to ALMOST make a point, (10 point not 11point lead blown), I would suggest it actually enforces the original contention it was meant to counter quite massively.

 

You need a defense to be not horrible to win MOST GAMES period.

You keep discount how high we scored. Just asked Gemini. Did not even include the last score. Answer:

Since 2000, there have been 284 instances where an NFL offense scored 35 or more points despite surrendering at least one defensive touchdown (an interception or fumble return for a score).

Despite the gift to the opponent's defense, teams in this situation have an overwhelming winning record of 246–38 (.866 winning percentage).

 

Why do you think we basically did nothing against the Jags in 2x games when the score was within 10 points?

We got a lot of yards / scored a lot of points because they were up by a ton. Anytime the game was within 10, we failed. Except the last drive when we were down by 10 and scored with 1s left (which is a win for the D).

Your analysis of this game revolves around the idea that defenses don't play different when the score is tight vs. when they are up big. And you assume that the results would have been the exact same for our offense if the score was close.

Football is like investing. Sequence of returns matters.

As stated earlier in the thread, your evaluation method here is why the Browns gave Watson the worst contract in NFL history.

 

So in THIS KIND OF SCENARIO, the odds swing HEAVILY in favor.of the high score REGARDLESS the defensive TD.

Example, we lost to the Packers in the SB thanks in part to a defensive score. We had a second turnover too. But what if Ben throws 4 or 5 scores in THAT GAME?

We win DESPITE THE TURNOVERS because of Ben's outstanding play otherwise.

And on a 4 or 5 touchdown game with those exact same completions AND mistakes as he had in the Jags game Ben is UNQUESTIONABLY MVP and it is retarded as the finest Steeler QB SB. performance in franchise history.

 

I expect Mcarthy to go to playoffs and push to win the division. Thats what he was hired to do, if they wanted to wait to win they could of hired a young first time head coach.

 

They were NEVER UP BY A TON in the second half.

You claimed they played prevent on this thread, they never did, I proved it.

Watch the film my friend, they NEVER let up in that game JUST LIKE THEY SAID.

The film shows Ben UNDER HEAVY PRESSURE, DBs tight coverage at the LOS, DBs draped all over receivers and Ben dropping impossible DIMES on them that were BOMBS much more difficult than the Holmes score.

No team scores on every drive and correlation does not mean causation.

Look at the tape, you could not be more wrong about "letting up". It never happened.

Why would you, Ben is a comeback monster. They NEVER had a safe lead.

That is why they had to KEEP SCORING to win the game.

 

Watch the tape. Tell me on what play (save for the meaningless last play) where it looks like we are in prevent, or in anyway it looks like Ben did not overcome insane coverage.

On two TDs commentator literally says t"here could not ne.better coverage". One of which he comments on Ben escaping a heavy rush. Bomb after bomb.

You are just throwing out a disproven narrative which has nothing to do with actual.recall.of the game. We know this because you called it prevent, which tape shows never happened. Even the Jaguars themselves made clear they never let up and credited Ben with just playing great.

Watch the tape



I tell you Ben has NEVER thrown the rock better than he did in that game in his comeback attempt.

 

You want to turn this into a semantic argument. I concede that using the term "prevent" was a poor word choice on my part. They were not in prevent. And they did still blitz some times.

But that doesn't mean that their defense (like basically all defenses) played different when up by 10 points.

If they were playing the same defense when they were up by 10+ vs when the lead was less than 10 points, why were our offensive results so different?

I posted this earlier, but here are our results when the game was within 10.

Playoff game: https://www.espn.com/nfl/game/_/gameId/400999181/jaguars-steelers

Drives when we were down by 10 or less:

• 3 plays. 8 yards
• 3 plays. -1 yard. INT
• 6 plays, 42 yards. Punt
• 4 plays. 9 yards. Turnover on downs.
  
• We did get a TD with 1:44 when we were down by 10 (10 plays 75 yards). But again, they were just trying to kill the clock here with a 2 score lead when we got the ball with 1:44 left on the clock.

Aside from the last drive (where the point is to make us use all the clock on a drive where we can't possibly win), when the game was within 10 points we had:

• 16 plays (4 drives...average of 4 plays per drive)
• one first down!
• two turnovers (INT + ToD)
• 58 yards
• 3.7 yards per play
• 14.5 yards per drive

If you like, I can go back and get the same stats when we were down by 10+ points. But we both know that the O will look much, much better in those cases (when looking at the yards and points that you are looking at...the DTD will be in this set of data and that's the most impactful play in the game).

Why do you think that is?

Aside: Here are the drives from the regular season game. The offense was better in the playoffs...because they were **** basically every drive in the regular season.

Regular season game: https://www.espn.com/nfl/matchup/_/gameId/400951655

Drives when we were down by 10 or less:

• 7 plays 61 yards FG!
• 11 plays 42 yards. INT
• 4 plays 20 yards. PUNT
• 6 plays 45 yards FG.
• 4 plays 73 yards FG.
• 2 plays, -1 yard. INT (DTD) That put us down by 11.

In this game, we didn't even get the benefit of being down by 10+ points [Note the word change here].

• Next drive we were down by 11, but 6 plays 9 yards INT.
• Down by 11 again. 9 plays 20 yards PUNT
• Down by 14. 5 plays 13 yards INT.
• Down by 14. 7 plays 54 yards INT.
• 3 plays 9 yards GAME OVER

IMO, it's likely that they reason we didn't get the benefit of being down by 10+ in the regular season game is that the stakes here are lower. So they didn't back off with a 2 score lead. But playoffs is win or go home. And that makes many coaches more conservative.

 

I don't think it will be all that hard to draft better than Colbert/ Tomlin did.
This article says it all, with some exception like Heyward the Steelers drafts have been pretty lousy the last decade or so.

https://triblive.com/sports/25-year...-best-steelers-pick-from-every-class-2011-15/