What are Reasonable Expectations for Mike McCarthy in year one with the Steelers?

Please explain who was responsible for our mediocre Qbs?
The whole roster of retreads? Rooney and Kahn?
Tomlin didn’t have a say who he wanted? Oh, that’s right, he was goo goo for KFP.
Tomlin isn’t innocent. Yea hats off that he never had a losing season with the sorry roster he helped build.
Credit where credit is due
But he is not innocent

 

Agreed, but both ways.

 

I totally agree, but don't let that fool You. I will be rooting for him as long as he's our HC, and I honestly hope to say one day that he is the greatest HC we ever had.

 

With someone else's players. Isn't that how the saying goes?? He didn't draft either of his HOF Qbs.
Added to this , both Qbs won MVPs without him.

 

I've explained this before, but maybe you forget daily. Tell me who were we supposed to go draft, or get that we didn't??? That all fine, and dandy to say that , but tell me who??
Only person I can think of maybe Sam Darnold, but you didn't even want him, your own words.

 

LoL. The only reason I even said it was because that's all I hear about for Tomlin.
Yeah Tomlin told Ben, hey Ben throw two Ints and make sure one is a pick 6, and hey Mendenhall, when the block is missed, and we are making a comeback, PLEASE please fumble it away. You correct, I'm sure those were Tomlins exact words. LoL
I don’t remember, did we ever have a MVP Qb while Tomlin was here?? Have we had a MVP Qb since Bradshaw??
McCarthy had two, and before You say anything. Both Qbs won MVPs even when McCarthy wasn't their HCs.

 

LoL.
Being able to do it without MVP Qbs is pretty meaningful, but hey that's just me.

 

You are better looking than I envisioned

 

Point is, I feel we will see very little difference between last years team and this years team.

 

We already have people saying McCarthy is a fraud.

They are saying he won't work hard.

People say he hasn't really ever developed a young quarterback, and that only McCarthy calls himself a quarterback whisperer. Nobody else really believes it.

They say he lies and will say anything to land gigs and then doesn't follow through on the promises he makes.

They say he talks a big game but can't pull it off.

We already have people accusing him of being lazy for not going to every pro day because Mike Tomlin would go and also have dinner with 1000 athletes and win them all over.

We keep hearing that those of us here that expect change are going to be disappointed.

I keep hearing that his assistant coaches suck and that they never accomplished anything, anywhere they coached.

I routinely hear how nothing will change because the owner is the real problem forcing Mike Tomlin to do his bidding and stopping Tomlin from decimating the rest of the NFL if only he was allowed to do what he truly wanted to do.

The claims that Mike Tomlin could lead a group of seventh grade cheerleaders to a winning record, while Mike McCarthy can't do anything without superior talent and a great quarterback.

I mean, when people are saying all that about the guy, they are predicting failure and disappointment by McCarthy. I don't really know how else it can be interpreted.

I openly stated that I didn't want McCarthy because I wanted a younger, innovative mind, but now that he's the head coach, I am going to give him a chance to create his vision for this team and see what he can put together and coach up.

 

We’ll pick up one or two improvements in the draft… not elite, just improvements…we’ll finish 7-10 and one-third of Steelers Nation will call it a successful season because Tomlin didn’t lead us into another season of mediocrity.

 

I will root them on and hope for the best. I did the same for Tomlin, but early on it became quite clear Tomlin was clueless.

You left out Graham with the Dolphins in 2019. The Dolphins were ranked 32 on defense for points allowed in 2019. After he left the Dolphins in 2019, the team became the 6th best defense for points allowed in 2020. The Dolphins were also a better defense in 2018, but not by a lot. One of the knocks on Graham is his defenses have no identity. That's not good news because the Steelers have lacked an identity on defense for awhile now. I hope for the best, but I think it will be more schoolyard defense for the Steelers in 2026. Granted, during his first season as DC with the Giants he was 9th in points allowed, but the next season he dropped to 23rd. As for the Raiders, he was 10th for PA in 2023, but finished 25th for PA in 2024 and 2025. Critics describe his pass coverage as a bend but don't break strategy that is easily picked apart by accurate quarterbacks.

As I said, I hope for the best, but I think it is going to be a poor year on defense. Hopefully I am 100% wrong.

As for McCarthy, he is old and in my opinion, overrated. However, I have more faith in the offense than the defense going into 2026. That being said, it is what we were given so we will have to wait and cheer all goes well.

 

Well most of that is nonsensical blabber by the pro Tomlin crowd. Anyone saying he is a failure here before he coaches 1 game is a moron.

That being said I have my reservations he will work here but I am excited to at least see a new version of what had become the most stale product in professional sports. Hopefully he surprises us and eventually he develops our next franchise QB.

 

You never know when that QB might emerge. The last time the NYJ won their division was 20+ years ago and their QB was Chad Pennington. Come to think of it, the last time MIA won their division their QB was none other than Chad Pennington. Guy should get some kind of award for that.

If McCarthy is any kind of QB guru (I'm not convinced he is) then we gotta hope he can find the needle in the haystack, otherwise a generation of fans will not see another SB.

 

He was still winning a few seasons ago so my expectation is that it will continue. The circumstances will be far different though, with no clear QB for the future. This is McCarthy's most important job going forward, finding the guy.

btw, here's a math comparison of MM vs MT wins:


*spread assumes normal distribution

Here's what that looks like in a plot. This is telling us we might expect much wider spreads in the win column in the next five seasons with MM.

 

Two problems with the plot.
1) The x-axis is confusing. McCarthy's 4 win season (2018) looks like it is "5". And his 15 win season (2011) looks like "15.5". And ties are being left out.
2) Over 75% of those seasons are 16 games, the others are 17. That is going mess with the variance of the points. It might be better to scale it to "wins/game played" or something similar to factor out the difference in the length of the regular season (and to include the half-wins due to ties).

 

"White Mike"? That's a bit of an odd comment unless I'm missing some context here.

Anyway, IMO, Tomlin won 10 games with mediocre QB play because he installed mostly mediocre QB's and then saddled them (protected) with playing overly conservative offensive schemes that played not-to-lose football. Which then failed horrifically in the post season (or against most decent defenses).

I'm expecting McCarthy to play more aggressively on offense to prepare for what needs to be done in the post season. It wouldn't be a shock to me if the first season of playing modern, offensive football, translated into fewer than 10 wins until it gets better.

 

I think anyone who follows football understands that there are a very limited number of QBs who aren't mediocre.

 

Facts and numbers are a cruel mistress.

The stuff about Tomlin is clearly a bridge too far.

But McCarthy has an extensive previous track record as an NFL head coach.

Call it doom and gloom all you want. All I’ve been attempting to force fellow Steelers fans to think through is the harsh realities of past as futures precedent.

I truly hope MM puts Howard through some incredible Qb school off season program and unleashes him on an unsuspecting league as the trigger man of a pyrotechnic offense. I hope Graham has some incredible insights on defense and the Steelers start shutting teams out.

Taking a dispassionate and clinical look at the available evidence says that’s expecting both coaches to do something they’ve NEVER accomplished in long tenures of prior NFL service.

While it does not mean they can’t do it - all things remain possible. It does make the idea that it is PROBABLE extremely unlikely.

Personally, I’m tired of Steelers fans expecting exceptional outcomes (meaning being 1 of 1 in NFL recent history) and then complaining when it doesn’t happen that way.

I experienced the entire MM era in Green Bay. Watched a ton of the games. Spent a lot of time on the road listening to sports radio (I know NOT a good source of anything). And the fam sentiments for long stretches of MM’s tenure sounded extremely similar to the last several years of being a Steelers fan.

MM will be different. The Steelers will look and feel different. Hopefully, that will spur a revival of fortunes. I truly hope it does. Based on the information available right now…it doesn’t seem likely.

Maybe there’s an expectation altering draft? Some revelation during camp?

 

Oh please, that was Rodgers being unstoppable that day while Ben threw two interceptions including a pick six.

 

What do you mean "OK"?

I don't think anyone is saying it's good or bad.

People are looking at (1) the talent on the team, (2) how HCs tend to do in year 1, (3) how MM has done on the 1st year with a team, and (4) what the division looks like.

We'll have a better idea of 1 and 4 after the draft I guess. But we'll again have the 3rd (probably not 4th?) best QB in the division. And that's not a great position to be in when you have no stars on offense and a defense who's best players are (1) very old in Cam and (2) declining steadily for two years TJ.

 

Not the Mendenhall fumble or Pouncey not playing?!
That super bowl was the point I knew Tomlin couldn't coach a team and we would never win another one with him here,
Surprising how long it took others to realise it and there are still some who don't.