Will Howard

Digging through some advanced stats, came across one I hadn't seen before;

• Throw Air Time above or below an expectation as determined by throw distance and the quarterback’s footwork when throwing. A lower number is better, because in that case throws of the same distance are taking less time to get to the target.

Last year's class:



This year's class;

Allar was 2nd fastest, Simpson 3rd, Beck 4th, Mendoza 6th

What does it mean? Dunno. But looking through a few previous classes it seems the most highly drafted QBs were near "0" for this metric. In this class, that would be Nussmeier.

 

Wouldn't it also have a lot to do with how the D is positioned??
I mean for instance, if I have to throw over a safety, and to drop it into my targets hands wouldn’t I want more air yards. I may not be explaining it good, but all I'm trying to say is not all pass should, or would be the same even if it was to the same distance.

 

You do realize I was arguing against that idea, right?

 

I vaguely remember a game, think it was with Bubby Brister.
Late in the game, Steelers are inside the 10. Brister has a WR open just across the goal line in front of him. Instead of a normal easily-catchable pass, Brister steps into it and throws his hardest fastball like he is trying to put a hole through his player. The ball careens off the WR chest pads, as he had little time to react.

 

In other words, a touch pass is always going to take longer to get to the target.

 

LoL. Yes that. Thank You. LoL

 

I understand 'Scribe.

 

And maybe this is why the best QBs seem to hover around "0" on the metric...(some fastballs, some lofters)?

 

To clarify, the players you mentioned are listed in order of arm strength, starting with Allar, followed by Simpson, Beck, and Mendoza. These are the top draft-eligible quarterbacks projected for rounds one through three.

The focus is on velocity and the ability to drive the ball downfield effectively, without any high, lofted passes.

That is what I think.

No one says that Allar does not have an A+ arm. With him is reading defense and hitting a moving target that are below the best QB's projected to be taken in round 1-4

 

You would think the quarterbacks with the strongest arms would get the ball to the receivers the fastest, especially if they are including footwork because someone with a big arm can make throws without setting their feet and stepping into throws.

I'm just guessing, but a quarterback that has an arm that can fire a fastball and still have the vision and touch to place a ball where it needs to be by taking something off of the throw, or to throw a catchable ball when called for would probably cancel each other out and zero would maybe be the mean?

Sometimes I think that some of these metrics are overdone and without enough context to really make them useful. At least not without vast knowledge of what the numbers actually mean and how they are determined, and to then put them into a formula that calculates data that really means something.

 

Howard based on what I saw in camp, he is trading accuracy for velocity on his passes. Too many " balloon balls " . That will work vs. the 3rd stringers in camp. In NFL games those " balloon balls " are begging to be intercepted. Howard's arm looked weaker than the Rudolph's in camp. Of course Mason knows what he's doing and Howard did not. But ...

Now that could be because he is a new player and rookie, he is doing that while he gets his feet wet.


One reason that Howard went in round six is his accuracy at the combine was awful. Okay that was only one day, but ...

He did play with Ohio State talent and looked better because of it. Another reason why he went in the 6th round.

Tomlin could have started Howard to get a look at him in game, but opted not to do so in favor of Rudoplh.

We should draft a quarterback in round one or two this April. Let Howard compete for the job with a real option at QB and let the chips fall where they may in 2026.

Those are my thoughts.

 

In reality what we need here is a QB. Not a reclamation project. Not a has been or a wanna be. A QB that can be groomed with a team built around him.

We now have the Offensive Coach that most were pinning for (Maybe not McCarthy)

A balanced attack. A QB who knows how to play the position instead of an athletic wonder who needs to learn how to throw or even play the position in the NFL.

I want a thrower who can move when needed. Has some wheels.

Maybe its Howard. Maybe it's Beck. Maybe its Allar.

Numbers only tell some of the story. I applaud those who deep dive into research.

If Beck or Allar are there in the 3rd you grab one. No one knows about Howard yet. And McCarthy didn't draft Howard despite all the nice things he has said.

To me their is a renewed excitement for the draft. A breath of fresh air. Can't wait to see how it plays out.

But its high time to figure this QB situation out savvy. Why wait till next year? And if it doesn't work out you draft one next year. That's the beauty of not wasting a high pick on one this season but taking a flyer on one later. We have 12 F###ing picks! That can be used to move up if needed.

 

The team was in first place and Howard didn't even play in the preseason, of course they were going to start Rudolph when Rodgers was injured.

 

The 2026 QB class was supposed to have 6-7 first rounders .

 

And do you not understand why this was the correct move

 

All of Allar’s losses were in big games where he played poorly

Every NFL game is a big game

See if you can fill in the rest

 

It might be overdone. It's all in pursuit of the magical formula that predicts QB success (or least better than the coin-toss they have today). Rewind 40 years ago and what did they have? Completion percentage and that was about it (it's still a good stat).

With RFID on every player the team that can make the most sense of the mountain of data being collected might end up with the edge. In the end though, injuries and just plain luck will still be uncontrollable. A wide right kick, a fumble can turn a season. No wonder gambling has taken over sports.

 

Did we win the game with Rudy? Do you know for sure that Howard would not ave played better?

Not having Howard get his feet wet even in mop up but is 100% on Tomlin.

 

In fairness half those guys decided they like the NIL money so much that they decided to keep collecting it this season.

 

Yes.

 

When the hell did we have time for a mop up??

 

As I told you then my friend. Let's wait, and see. Some will rise(some we may not even be thinking about), and some will fall, or fail.

 

That's because around 5 of them stayed in college and didn't declare for the draft.

 

Agree, plus Howard was the 3rd string emergency QB. He wasn't allowed to enter a game unless the other 2 were injured.

 

Exactly. That is a little known fact that someone is trying to gloss over.