Will the NFL become the 'modern NBA'?

With the ever-increasing importance of finding a franchise QB you have to wonder if the NFL will eventually devolve into the NBA...

If the 2027 QB class is anything close to the hype, watch for the tanking by desperate teams.

Tanking has always been a part of the modern NBA, because the math is too simple: forfeit a season now for a better return (an elite draft prospect) later. Elite players win championships and bring about every form of success the league has to offer. At its base, the logic is flawless.

The product, however, is ugly. And right now, as Sam Vecenie recently wrote, we’re witnessing a confluence of ugly we haven’t seen in a while. A quick overview:

The 2026 NBA Draft class is viewed as special, so teams are racing to the bottom of the standings in order to increase lottery odds. BYU’s AJ Dybantsa, Kansas’ Darryn Peterson and Duke’s Cameron Boozer could be superstars. Multiple franchises are willing to forgo competitiveness, or even a shot at the Play-In Tournament, for the chance to draft them.

It’s gotten pretty yucky. The 18-37 Utah Jazz are a prime example, as they’ve been trotting out a decent starting lineup — particularly with the addition of Jaren Jackson Jr. at the trade deadline — and then pulling their stars for the fourth quarter, no matter the game status. Winnable games theoretically become routine losses. The front office “wins.” The same idea goes for teams like Washington and Memphis.

The league, to be fair, has been trying to combat this for years. Lottery odds have shifted to disincentivize the tank. The Player Participation Policy fines teams who sit stars, though the Jazz’s strategy exploits a loophole there. The league even added the Play-In Tournament to increase the playoff field. Remember when the Heat made a run to the finals from the Play-In?

 

I hope not.

 

can't expect all the other players on the team to turn it on and off for one guy for a whole season. the draft is such a hit or miss thing as well. ryan leaf for example. there is no guarantee of success and then have to tell the other 52 guys don't play as hard these next couple of years until we get such and such in the draft.

 

Funny how the hype was in 2025 and now 2026 which has fizzled. Then it will be 2027, we have to wait for 2028, whoops 2029.

Pick one and develop him. We now have an Offensive Head Coach who can.

But "Run it Back Rooney" wants

 

If 2027 is the holy grail of QBs and the Steelers have their eyes on one and they also don't want a losing season, then they need to start building a plan to move way up in the draft. Trade players. Trade picks. Make deals.

You're not going anywhere in this league without a very good QB.

Rather than intentionally tanking, I'd like to see us just go out and play aggressively and take more chances on both sides of the ball and let the chips fall where they may. Get younger. Start a young QB. Maybe trade Watt. But blowup the formula we've been abusing since 2021.

 

we can said the same thing for the NBA...Remember Sam Bowie!...But the odds would be better when you draft high!

 

"Tanking" will get you beat up in just about all locker rooms.
I've seen that question asked quite a lot of times, it's usually a new blood learning the ropes.
No player wants to go 1-17 or 0-18.

The front office 'could' trade/cut some key players to facilitate a bad season...

The NBA hasn't been any good in some time.... I stopped watching basically when Jordan hung up his Nikes in Chicago.
It is hard to imagine them tanking but maybe that is the depths that sport has fallen to.
I remember the days when players like Dr J, Nate Thurmond, Tom Burrelson, Artis Gilmore could be on the worst teams, but when the Lakers or Celtics came to play them, it was going to be a tough game.. not so much the score but the effort.

It's a tough one to address. Some actually believe is a practice other do not..... In my years, I've not seen it or evidence of it (I do know the front office will dump a roster for a complete overhaul, but that is sometimes necessary... Like Dallas did that first year under JJ.

NFL seasons are relatively short and careers are as well... I just don't know.

 

Listen up,

I am no basketball expert. I am a football guy first, a hockey guy second, a boxing guy on a select few nights third.

Maybe a basketball kind of guy 5th in terms of being a sports fan.

But something BIG is happening in the NBA. The best players right now under 31 are not American born. That's like saying the best Jazz musicians today aren't American! Yet it happened. You can scratch your head how this happened or why, yet here we are in 2026.

Players like Jokikc, Donic, Shai Alexander, Antetokounmpo, and Wembanyama are the next major all stars under the age of 31. Elite level franchise guys they are.

The best USA born player under the age of 31 is .... no one in the above class I think, but then again I am not a good follower of NBA basketball.

We have James who is ancient and Curry (37 ) who can drop off form elete status due to his age in the next 1-3 years. But I say again something is a happening.

 

Once the NBA starts penalizing teams for intentional tanking by taking away those draft picks, teams doing that will stop.


The NFL is, by far, the premier league of the majors because of the parity. Small market or big market teams have equal profit sharing, the same salary cap, and free agency value based on player production.


Other leagues will have to start following this example in some way. I expect a MLB lockout at the next CBA, or whatever they call it. Owners have to stand on a profit sharing deal and salary cap. The same 3-5 teams in the WS every year is going to kill the league. They have to do something to bring back team parity.


As for NBA/NFL teams tanking, it makes sense right now in the NBA to tank. It does not in the NFL. 'Suck for Luck' produced zero rings.

 

What does this have to do with the thread?

 

I wouldn't be against a lottery for teams that don't make the playoffs to provide a disincentive to tank.

But tanking doesn't work as well in the NFL as in other sports.

Because it really only makes sense to tank for QBs. And QB success in the NFL might be the hardest thing to scout in pro-sports.

 

wasn't he at the alamo? i'll ask jeh. how many first round picks the browns have had over the years and still don't have one. a team could have to tank for 10 years before they find one. at that point they forget how to win and other players don't want to play there. NBA is so much different then what the NFL is as far as players. look at josh allen and lemar jackson and dak presscott. lots of teams have franchise guys that can't get them over the hump.

 

basketball and football are totally different when it comes to building a roster. One guy can change your team instantly since its only 5 guys on the floor at a time.

and for those who stopped watching after Jordan. You missed some great basketball.

Kobe era was great. AI was fun to watch. Curry and Golden State had a good run. Denver and now San Antonio. Detroit is currently one of the best teams this year playing bully ball. I’m a Hornets fan and they finally turned the corner and have a player up for rookie of the year.

Tanking played a part in some of these rebuilds but again, the impact from a star player in basketball is like an NHL goalie standing up n his head. When they are playing great, it can carry a team to a championship. Way more moving parts in football for 1 player to have that impact since players don’t play offense and defense.

 

well the NBA does penalize teams with the bogus lottery. This is how Dallas ends up with the #1 pick after losing their best player even though they had the lowest odds.

 

good point about the browns.
it's interesting that the Premier League in soccer takes a team that stinks every year, like the Browns or Cardinals, and demotes them out of the League and grabs a winning team from one of the lesser leagues and brings them into the Premier League, some mechanism like that. (those who follow soccer can tell better)
If the NFL did that, we'd have gotten rid of the Browns and brought in someone....like....Ohio State.
What if.......

 

True.
Then those NBA teams that are deliberately tanking and not providing their fans with an effort to win, should be kicked out the League for a few years until they decide to try and win for their fans. Perhaps dumped into the Europe Leagues for a while. And invite the best Europe team over to play in the NBA to take their place.
I hate tanking

 

Amazing how bad the Wizards are at tanking. They have been tanked for a decade and haven't improved a bit.

 

I think right off the bat, you can exclude those with contract incentives and those coming up on contract time to tank anything.

 

The reason that the 2026 QB draft is so weak is because around 8 QB's who were eligible to turn pro decided to go back to college. Most of them will be out of eligibility and have no choice but to declare for the draft in 2027.

 

Hold that thought for a moment. The NBA / NHL has a lottery draft, which hedges against taking. In case I miss my guess, some day the NFL will too.

Tanking for the #1 pick and having a chance to draft a " franchise " QB, does exist in the NFL. Owners know this.

Do not kid yourself, Mendoza is the #1 pick this year and his detractors are among the teams who pick #2, and #3 because they want him too!

In the 2027 NFL draft, it should be an even better year as at least two QBs are trending as top overall 5 picks.

In the NBA / NHL system one can be slowed down in the draft by a team that draws the ping pong ball in the first three overall picks.

 

Tanking makes sense in the NHL because there's a massive drop off after the top 2 or 3 picks with later picks in the first often not playing in the NHL for years (if at all). I think it's stupid that the NHL drafts kids so young...particularly if you're looking for guys who can be good defensively when they're 18. Makes it really, really hard to scout guys who aren't offensive super-starts. The NFL doesn't have this problem because the NCAA is basically their minor league. They're already "grown-ass men" when they are drafted.

I don't really follow the NBA, but I think it's similar where there are a small number of impact players in ever draft. And most drafted guys probably never make the league since rosters are only 11-guys deep (or whatever).

So I think tanking has higher value in the NBA and NHL because (1) there are only a small number of players who are going to make an impact in the short to medium term and (2) high impact players are easy to identify re: scouting (although I think this is less true in the NHL for non-offensive defensemen and goalies - who no one seems to know how to scout...not unlike QBs).

I 100% agree that Mendoza will be the 1OA. But even when he's the clear-cut 1OA, does anyone think it's better than a coin flip that he'll be a starting QB who earns a big 2nd contract? No one knows how to scout QBs for the NFL. I think because it's basically impossible. I think there are just so few humans can process information fast enough to play QB in today's NFL as players get faster and faster. I think this is why so many guys who dominate the NCAA end up on the scrap heap of discarded high-pedigree guys. They have the measurably physical tools to play QB. But just can't deal with the speed of the modern game.

And compared to the NBA and NHL, there are way more players per year in the draft that make in impact (and make rosters). This is because rosters are much bigger than the other sports. And I'd imagine that the average career is much shorter in the NFL. So you don't have to tank to get too players.

And on top of all that, no one knows whether a good to great NCAA QB is worth drafting in the NFL. For example, while it was a bad class Kenny was considered to be the best QB in the class. And if he wasn't drafted in the 1st, he'd be out of the league by now.

A lottery does provide a disincentive to tank. But in the NBA and NHL, the incentive can be so high that it still makes sense to tank. Maybe that would still happen in the NFL. But teams must know they might be tanking to draft Ryan Leaf (horrible) or even Baker Mayfield (pretty meh).

The changes of finding a good QB are better if you're picking 1-3 OA. But I bet it's still not (much?) better than a coin flip.

 

I think the problem with this approach is that you can probably float along at around 0.500 with even a modestly averagish QB. That was my biggest fear with Pickett. A guy not bad enough to only win you 3 or 4 games but no way good enough to make noise in the postseason. Just glad the Steelers .... er, Pickett cut bait and bolted.

 

NBA stinks. Easiest sport to rig.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/draft/


Tanking to get the #1 pick makes perfect sense in the NFL. Look at past history and you see a correlation. The #1 overall pick gives that team a better chance of making a superbowl by picking a QB #1 overall.

There is a way to do it right. A really bad team among the 5 worst would be wise to tank by playing the young guys , and limiting their expressive vets, especially those who will cut in on the cap next season! By doing this you are not giving yourself the best chance to win but up your odds by picking #1 or #2 overall.

Smart organizations start to tank by game #13 or so. And Smart gamblers may bet against those teams doing it.

Tell Roger a lottery draft will give the $$$ hungry owners another revenue soruce. I say the highest network bid earns the right to broadcast it. This was among my top ten ideas and rules changes better than the NFL. Okay --I sent it to him via email! I do not directly know the man but I do know an officer who worked as the" king of special " events for the NFL. I know him from my highschool days and he was in the movie draft kings as an extra and credited in the film because he ran production of the NFL draft.

Since he is no longer with the NFL. He told me Roger is a man one does not dare stare at, or give a bad facial reaction too. He is the mean principal in school you just don't mess with. But he loves Tom Brady. The two men know the share the same secret handshake and greetings. I kid you not! Watch an event when the meet.

Obviously such a man will not talk about tanking and gambling as it is viewed as bad for business. The third rail of the NFL if you will.

-JB