4th and half yard from our 30.

Should have said go for it. Bad teams have to.

 

It's not close. Example: this week if we don't get that 1st down, they don't even have to move the ball, and they are in field goal range. If you don't make a 3, the opposition doesn't automatically get a chance at 3 points.

 

1. He's out there if it's a fumble, and
2. I guarantee they have a play , or two designed off of it.

 

Let me ask all the people in favor of going for it on 4th down..
What would the score be in the Bengals/Ravens game last week be if the Bengals just kicked a field goal every time they were within range??? You pay a kicker for a reason.

 

Data or conjecture

 

Nope

That is not correct

Polamalu used to be be back there in the day

Someone has to prevent the ball going the other way

 

And if you clank the 3 of the back iron, the opponent gets a long rebound, and rushes out on the fast break for an easy lay-up. Not much different.

It is the percentages over time that add up, not individual instances. Like I said, real world results can vary. There are nights where those NBA teams that are built to shoot 3's and not much else couldn't hit the ocean and they get blown out. There are nights where they can't miss and they coast to an easy victory. Now, over an 82 game season instead of a 17 game one, that variance doesn't matter as much.

In the NFL, over time, you will score more points by going for it basically between the 30's. However, the percentages can bite you in the butt. But I do think we are seeing two "traditional" NFL concepts being challenged. What is field goal range? And when is punting actually beneficial to my chances of winning instead of my chances of losing?

 

I hope we never see it, but 42-year old Rodgers trying to tackle someone and preventing a TD, à la Ben against the Colts, would be a site to be seen

 

If , if.
If You are playing half court basketball, not if You are playing a real game.
If You miss a 3 point , the ball doesn't automatically go to the opposite team, but in football if You miss a 4 down it does. Just that says it's nothing like it.
I would say the average made field goal in the NFL is 50 yards , or less. So if You don't get a 1st on your 30 , they don't even have to play a down, and they are in field goal range.

 

There is nothing more demoralizing for a team than to have a long drive and then fail on a fourth down try in the red zone. It changes the momentum of the entire game. Kick the sure 3 and at least get something out of the drive.

 

Yes maybe

Depending on the score and time left

 

I am just trying to summarize what the math says with potentially a poor analogy. You can Google for the various math models out there that show how "by the number" you are better off not kicking (FG or punts) in many situations.

We all know that math can not account for a variety of intangible factors and real life scenarios do not always conform to expectations.

 

I hear you bro, and I've seen the numbers, but it doesn't look into the psychological, or sometimes the physical aspect of a game. This is why I will never get into analytics for a contact sport, because it doesn't take in the things that can matter on a play like, fear, heart, determination, pain, and fatigue .
I'm telling you that nothing is as demoralizing than to March down the field, and come away with nothing.

 

That's about what I just wrote. I've seen it, I've felt it, and I've talked to many others that have also.

 

Of course, if You are down by more than 3 at the end of a game, I totally agree.

 

we were doing the tush push when Troy was playing?

 

agree and too often going for 2 points early in the game and missing them - then at the end of the game you need a td when a field goal would do - had you just taken the kick on the extra point.

 

Kickers get paid?? I thought they just did it for the chicks!