A look at Watt's production through Week 11

That response just shows that you aren't really using facts here. You just heard a big number and got freaked out.

They can throw roughly $28 million at outside FA's after they sign their rookie class and back out an in-season contingency fund.

Looking at the projected available FA LG's, Seumalo might be the best fit. Say he takes $8-10 million in cap space. Why he gets a big old raise -- who knows. But we can just go with it.
Jamel Dean or Tariq Woolen are the two highest rated CBs projected to hit FA. Somewhere around $10-20 million in cap space to sign one of those guys.
Safety would be like another $3-5 million if you paid top of the market rates.
WR is hard to predict. Mostly would be cheap as all get out because no one all that exciting is scheduled to hit the market. Maybe they go after Aiyuk? But he won't cost that much because no one knows if he is broken or not. But say they need $10 million in cap space.

So that puts it at around $45 million in cap space. Minus the $28 they have. They would need to "find" $12 million in cap space by horsing around with existing contracts or releasing a couple of guys. For instance, Jonnu Smith gets you $7 million in cap space. I think everyone could live without that dude. Now they are down to $5 million needed for their extravagant shopping list. NFL teams can find $5 million in cap space by rooting around in the couch cushions.

The TJ Watt contract is not what is hampering this roster.

 

There is a lot of interesting data and info in this thread. At the end of the day, the steelers made a mistake by signing Watt to that fat contract and Kahn whiffed on this one as far as I'm concerned. You already had him under contract for this season and could have franchised him next year if he was worth it. And then let him walk or retire. He'll be 32 next year with maybe another year left to play in his career. His brother had the same career trajectory and retired after 12 years at around the same age, injuries piling up, and declining play. There where many of us here who said exactly this and it is now playing out. Kahn gambled and lost on Watt. There are way too many examples or where an aging star got a fat payday and either disappeared completely or just faded away into obscurity. Add TJ Watt to that list.

 

That eagles injury last year seems to be where he really fell off.

 

That was the excuse for last year he's healthy now and need to start earning that big contract.

 

The Bengals just went through this with Hendrickson and it blew up in their face.

I also (and just one dude's opinion) think that it is not being mentioned that contracts become bargains the moment they are signed. Because the NEXT contract is X% more. And the next one after that is X+Y% more and on and on.

Mahomes contract was viewed as almost totally unbelievable when he signed it. But 5 years later AFTER other big name QBs got their extensions, it looks like a bargain -- https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/contracts/_/position/qb

Watt is on par statistically with everyone else he is being paid like except for Garrett. No one is on par with him this year. Interestingly enough, the league sack leaders are all NOT the highest paid edge rushers...so if the Steelers made a bad bet on previous production at edge rusher....so did several other teams as well.

 

The points you raise with the data is compelling. There's a lot to consider and it's not black and white. I would have preferred they spent money elsewhere.

 

They wouldn't have to find anything if they didn't overpay Watt. They also could have gone after Darnold instead of settling for what's left of Rodgers. They could have added a legitimate starter at free safety instead of fuciing the defense for half the season with Thornhill back there. On top of that, they would have had more resources to spend next offseason and beyond. Before you start about so many options being gone by the time they gave Watt his new deal, it was clear they were counting on paying him all along.

You are posting guesswork and presenting it as fact. Also, kindly stuff your insulting claim that I was "freaking out" somewhere uncomfortable. I have shown your dubious claim that grossly overpaying for Watt is fine because you don't think they could use the money with respect. Perhaps you could return the favor.

 

That other teams made the same mistake doesn't make what the Steelers did any less foolish.

 

What is Watt’s cap hit this year? How did that impact Darnold? Or Thornhill?

I don’t have the numbers on my crappy phone screen but I’m 90% sure the Watt extension lowered his 2025 cap hit.

Wouldn’t that go against the argument for paying him less?

I think the extension pushed the can down the road so to speak.

EDIT: Found the numbers. Extension lowered Watt’s 2025 cap hit by $7 million.

 

For the record Rodgers 2025 cap hit is listed as bigger than Darnold and roughly equal to Jones.

if we’re going to discuss it; then let’s all work with the same information.

it very well may be that this is a bad contract. Third contracts are tricky in the NFL. Polamalu’s last deal wasn’t so good for all involved.

but the cap space concerns seem not to be supported but I’m not always seeing the math properly.