Najees Market Set

I like Najee, but the RB position is one of the easiest to fill. Najee lacks explosive top speed to warrant that kind of money. I like the guy just not at that price tag.

 

And it still doesn’t say much for the rest of the rbs, this is a pass first game today. Avg 58 yds a game rushing sucks, but its a passing league today

 

The appropriate thing to do is to compare him to his peers. Also, I'd have to look, but I don't think any of those guys have a No. 2 as good as Warren taking so many touches.

 

Ha. This from the guy who argued to me in another thread that they may have declined giving Harris $7M because the players they need to resign and fill the roster with would make quick work of their surplus cap space.

I don't disagree that a couple million is easy enough to find a home for. But I'm trying to read Khan's tea leaves here. There are a number of potential reasons why they declined, but Kahn's short time in the position makes it's hard to know what he's actually thinking. One theme becoming evident is that he doesn't mind letting contracts ride for fear of contending with the open market. On offense alone Wilson, Fields, Harris, Freiermuth, and Daniels (Watkins and Jefferson as well) are all set to become UFAs after the season. On defense, Heyward and Jackson.

I'm not criticizing the approach per se, and obviously they're not going to keep everyone, but it's setting up more question marks than usual for org to address next offseason. This when some would seem like safe bets to extend now (Harris' option, extending Frierermuth, e.g.), assuming there's not something more going on behind the scenes.

 

Rushing attempt/yards/TD and snap count percentages. Games played is an FYI for production totals, no effect on snap %.

1. McCaffrey*...272/1459/14 ... 81% (16 games)
2. Henry .........280/1167/12 ... 53%
3. Williams*.....228/1144/12 ... 82% (12 games)
4. Cook...........237/1122/2 ..... 55%
5. Swift*.........229/1049/5 ..... 58% (16 games)
6. Connor*......208/1040/7 ..... 62% (13 games)
7. Harris.........255/1035/8 ..... 53%

Didn't know Connor turned in a 5.0 YPC. Not bad.

 

signing him now would have already cut into that surplus money. i don't see daniels being part of the conversation since kahn has already replaced that position with mccormick most likely(rookie deal). i don't think it is wilson and fields, more like wilson or fields, and maybe neither. jackson and heyward i believe are out. they will most likely roll with the youth they already have and have brought in. porter going into year 3 will be the vet. watkins and jefferson won't matter. they may try to bring back one or the other for some depth. muth? who knows for he and harris it just may depend on this year. so yes the extra 2 mil. won't be that big of deal if that is the direction they decide to go. warren will probably get paid and they either sign muth or harris but i doubt both. the other will be drafted for that position or they run with a young one already here.

 

Too bad Conner couldnt stay healthy here.

 

Obviously I'm aware that if I chose to pick up Harris's option I'm allocating $7M to him next year. To me it's fair value and not a lot of money. At some point you have to start making decisions on who you want to keep and who you don't. I'm not getting a clear idea of what those moves would be for you, just some general opining and fencing over ideas presented. That their surplus cap money in 2025 can only go so far isn't in dispute. But at some point you need a strategy behind how you're going to spend it.

I think you're leaving too much to chance counting on rookies and greenhorns yet to show much at a high level to suddenly develop into starting-caliber players in the NFL. McCormick is athletic with potential, but also raw with mechanics. Rush played in mostly nickel/dime sets and ST here after bouncing through two other teams last year, and Trice has yet to take a snap. I want both to work out, but depending it at this point is playing the long odds. I'm not sure who you think best to replace Heyward (right now I see DT and CB as early picks next spring).

TE is an important position in Smith's offense, and Freiermuth is a solid player. Personally, I'd be trying to extend him, assuming his camp isn't shooting the moon. Similar to Harris, if he excels with some of the changes this season he could get expensive on the open market and you risk losing him. And it's not about trying to keep both (or either of) Wilson/Fields or Watkins/Jefferson, it about having to replace the position. Filling a large amount of holes in a single offseason is generally a riskier proposition given the fickle nature of the market.

 

watching from afar, it seems like omar is mixing players well. by next year jones will be in year 3. mccormick in year 2. troy in year 2. seumalo still here as a vet. cook if kept will be year 3. spencer? year 4. frazier year 2. possible draft pick or FA signing.

anthony averett is another DB that has played pretty well in the past for the ravens. bishop will be year 2 by then. many guys young but still with some years in the system by next season. ryan watts.

benton, ogunjobi, adams, lee, lowry, leal, not completely empty. we are not talking about replacing a young heyward.

 

But Mac.. I'm not talking about Omar's balancing of youth and veteran talent. You're not sticking to the same point. I referenced what I felt was a laissez-faire approach by you in replacing specific pending FAs at positions of importance with 'youth we already have'. Youth is necessary to balancing a roster, but it has to be taken in context. Some of the players you're referencing are late-round picks yet to show anything above average back-up level play in the NFL. There's a difference between Todd Frazier taking over the starting center position and Beanie Bishop becoming the CB2 in 2025.

As far as Heyward, while last year was lost to the groin injury and he's definitely nearing the end, he's two years removed from back-to-back 10+ sack seasons. Throwing those kind of numbers up again is unlikely, but many of his best seasons came past age 30. Regardless, you've mostly got a mix of players at a different position (Benton/Adams, Ogunjobi) and depth pieces (Leal, Lee) as adequate replacements. I could see Lowry as a stopgap in a pinch, but again expect DT to be an early-round pick in 2025.

But all of this has spiraled off of my original thoughts on picking up Harris's option. Back then you felt $7M may have been too much to tie up (current estimates have them $77M under), but I've yet to see where you'd be using that money.

 

Doesn't stay healthy in Arizona either. Connor seems to play 13 games a season. Pretty much the same RB for Arizona, as he was here in Pittsburgh. I never understood why they ran Connor out of town???

Funny is Connor the best RB the Steelers have had since his 2018 season of 4.5ypc and 12 TDs?


Help is on the way for Connor from the draft in OT Paris Johnson and RB Trey Benson to help carry the load.

Connor is currently playing on a 3 year $21 million contract.

 

well to be fair i never said it was too much money to pay him. i think they want to pay warren first and wait this year out to extend harris even if they choose too. they may look the free agent market or draft someone at that point. omar has seemed to take a wait and see attitude about harris. where colbert may have been a what you have done for me in the past matters, omar seems to be a what are you going to be doing for me in the future type GM. i think harris falls under that and so does heyward.

as you stated as to where the money may go, i could see it going to at least two QB's, a CB, a D-lineman not named heyward, pickens, warren and maybe friermuth and for the others he seems to be taking a wait and see approach. he has to fill the roster as well with only 49 under contract and even at that, not all of those 49 will make the team. with next years draft, practice squad, incentive bonuses, roster payments, free agents, money carried into the season, that amount they have looks impressive but can be gone quite quickly.

 

People are relying too much on projecting Warren, who hasn't shown he can take on a lead-back role in the NFL. Harris has proven he can do that.

 

Many are thinking he can't as well. We shall see. I see 3 backs that can share the load this year.

 

Understood, but I'm familiar with the particulars that will have to be accounted for under next year's cap, and still feel Harris's option wouldn't have tied any hands, while assuring they retain solid combo of he and Warren for another year. Smith's offense and the improvements to the line also seem to set the table for Harris, Warren, too, but we haven't seen him function as the lead yet.

Keeping Harris for another year also allows them to focus more on other needs in next year's draft. They'll likely need a DT and CB, possibly WR and TE as well, preferably early on.

 

i do believe they are on a wait and see how this year turns out for many positions. harris included. if he was a must keep for them, they would have signed him. there is also a ton of 2025 free agent RB's available next year.

 

The issue isn't this year. It is 2025 and beyond. That is what sparked the entire discussion, the team passing on keeping Harris at a relatively affordable rate for that one more season.

 

Any back better than Harris is probably going to cost more than $7 million to sign. They could have had that cost certainty for one more season, then cut him loose in time for the steep decline that often comes early for running backs. Instead, they left themselves with one more hole to fill next offseason, when it is likely they will suffer either a decline in talent or a much higher cost.

 

I keep hoping to hear about a new contract for Najee before training camp. (I believe the story that Najee told the Steelers he would not play under his 5th year option)

No Idea why the Steelers would not let him practice at the minicamp, or what this means for training camp; will he be a hold-out, Hold-in, or will the Steelers force him to stand on the sideline again in sweats like they did at mini-camp?

 

Why am I not surprised that you believe an anonymous, speculation-based report?

 

Najee Harris has started every game of his career. He averages 278 carries per season, 9TDs per season. He's been a workhorse for this team. I think he would have been a bargain at $7M for a 5th year.

The problem for him is Warren does nearly everything just as well as Harris other than pass protect and is also only signed through this season. A decision will have to be made which RB to keep and which will walk.

Paying the $7M now could turn out to be the wrong choice.

 

I wouldn't say he was a must keep per se, but he's been a solid back behind an inconsistent line stuck in the playbook of a poor OC. His medical history gives no reason to think he'd be a concern next year. IMO, the arrows are pointing up for him. They can always find another solid RB, but like you mentioned, Khan is leaving a number of plates spinning going into next year's offseason. I'd think a known, productive commodity would be welcome to ease some of the burden they're lined up to have.

As for free agent replacements, there's not much out there that trips my trigger:

Aaron Jones - will be 31 next year
Javonte Williams - has shown flashes, but missed most of 2022 with an ACL tear. Ran for 774 yards behind a 3.6 YPC last year.
James Connor - will be 30 next year, has never stayed healthy for a full season.
Nick Chubb - coming off a major knee injury, will be 29 next year.
Chubba Hubbard - has yet to be prominently featured. Last year was his heaviest usage, going 238/902/5 (3.8 YPC).
Khalil Herbert - Jaylen Warren without the use in the passing game.
Kenneth Gainwell - has yet to see 85 carries in a season

 

Gainwell would see that and many more in this offense. Problem with him is he is so much smaller than the Steelers traditionally use at RB. He's not starter/workhorse size, in my opinion. BUT...I do really like him as a RB.

 

but he should not have

 

TBH I'm not that familiar with his game, but was aware of his size. I'd rather see someone that could fill a bully back role to compliment a Warren.