The case for/against Najee Harris...

It was obvious we had to get rid of DJ. He was not only a disruption off the field but his attitude was effecting his play on the field as well. None of us knows what kind of negative impact he was having on the team but if you are fighting with other players, coaches etc. and your effort is effected on the field you have to go. If you let that slide as a coach you lose total respect in the locker room and control of your football team. The Steelers have done everything they could to replace DJ and I think they were very fortunate to have gotten Roman Wilson a similar talent whith a much better attitude to boot. Yes he lacks experience but I will forgo the experience if I get better attitude in return.

Regarding Najee, the more I think about this I’m not so sure there isn’t some underlying conflict brewing underneath the surface. He lost the C last year to Kenny Pickett. The rumors are he wasn’t happy about that. His carries were reduced and while that was good for him (health and staying fresh) perhaps he didn’t see it that way. It was blatantly obvious there was a tremendous amount of frustration and dysfunction on the offensive side of the ball last year. We don’t know how players handled things internally, in the locker room or even on the field. We can make assumptions and guesses but as fans we don’t know. I do know the carnage after the dysfunction last year was the firing of the OC, Trading DJ and KP. Perhaps Najee was and is viewed as part of that problem from last year as well (from an attitude perspective).

Look at it this way. If GP had a chance at a 5th year option do you think they would offer it to him? I’m not sure they would. It appears to me Khan is really trying to clean up the dysfunction and the attitudes on this team. Okorafor and Dotson whom both complained are gone as well. I had read articles recently on Steelers Now, Steelers Nation and Steelers Depot about Najee running hot and cold in the locker room. I am sure there was alot of frustration for him last year. Probably with the blocking, the OC, the QB’s and his injury at the beginning of the year. So there is alot that goes into these decisions behind the scenes that we are not privy too.

1. Teams current and future Salary Cap
2. Value of position relative to the market
3. FA options at that position the following year
4. Quality of prospects in the draft at that position the following year
5. Players fit within the system
6. Quality of depth at that position already on the roster
7. Players attitude

 

I don't have a problem with trading Johnson. I have a problem with doing that and not finding a suitable replacement.

I connect that to Harris because I think coming up short in his attempts to find a receiver and choosing not to exercise the fifth-year option are both symptoms of a potential with issue with Khan, that he seems to think every deal has to be a bargain. Do enough of that, and your team's talent comes up short.

 

the Team is not finished building yet for 2024

 

I have written that I'm basing my comments on what has happened to this point. Perhaps they will add a quality veteran receiver, but the options are dwindling.

 

The Comp Pick window closed this weekend, so now All players signed to new contracts do not count against the team in the Comp Pick formula. Maybe Khan is waiting on this to add Boyd???

Also, I posted some stats they may suggest the Steelers may give Jaylen Warren a shot at the #1 RB job this year.

I was a huge supporter of Najee's, but when I looked at the numbers that Jaylen put up last year there is a case to be made that Najee will be taking a backseat to Jaylen Warren this year. Jaylen Warren for Avery Yards per Carry, is Better on 1st down, Better on 2nd down, Better in the 1st half of games, and Better in the 2nd Half of games. Khan may believe that Warren becomes the starting back this year, and Najee gets moved aside as the Steelers Short yardage and goal line back. How much is a backup RB worth on the open market if Khan and the Steelers are ready to move forward with Jaylen Warren?

 

I've thought about that. Quite possible, especially if they are planning on featuring Warren.

Only thing is, if the Steelers were thinking trade, I would think that Najee would be more desirable if he was tied up past 2024

 

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What difference does it make who Khan tried signing? He created the problem in the first place by trading DJ for an average corner. Attempting to fill the void he created, doesn't solve the problem.

The WR room fills thin because it is. Calvin Austin has done next to nothing. Quez Watkins and Van Jefferson are barley roster worthy NFL players. Who knows what Roman Wilson is capable of, coming in as a 3rd round pick? Not only is there not a WR2 on the roster, the Steelers don't even have a legit WR3. Thin is an understatement.

 

I get where your coming from. Colbert used to operate in a way that you desire. Go out and sign middling free agents or reach on draft pick to fill a need and automatically pencil that person in as a cable replacement to fill the hole or need. We did it time and time again wether it was over drafting Greene at Center or signing bad green agents at ILB like Mack or extending Ogunjobi. We as fans developed a fake confidence thinking those positions of need were filled when in reality it was a waste of cap space and set us back years at those positions.

Khan is alot more strategic and only goes after high quality replacements. He doesn’t overreach. Look at this years draft. He could have traded up in round two to get Frazier we probably would have had to give up pick 98 which would have meant we would have missed out on Payton Wilson. Regarding replacing Johnson they are trying like heck to replace him. They drafted Roman Wilson and brought in two FA WR’s. They are trying to trade for a high pedigree WR. I guess the only thing they could have done differently in your mind is maybe trade for a high pedigree Wr before trading DJ. I am not sure what else they can do.

What are your thoughts on Najee possibly having an attitude problem?

 

well, I still think you over-value DJ - he was always middle of the pack (just see his numbers, production and brain-deadness yr in and yr out on the field)a , so we don't need great reach to match him.

Wilson MAY come in out produce him. Certainly Jefferson may match his production.

you did have a hissy fit in March when he was exchanged.

 

1st. It would be impossible for Warren to be used in all the same situations as equal with Harris with 106 less carries. You can't do anything 106 times more than me , and the percentages actually be the same.
2nd. Nobody was game planning Warren untill about the 2nd half last year.
Everyone asked all Year....why did KFP all of a sudden look different last year compared to the year before. Teams look at game film all the time, but a lot can't really use all of it till the following year. Everyone seen what drove the Steelers, and then last year they implemented it.....stop Harris. Some will go with they changed blocking scheme....which they did....what they don't bring up is a big reason they did was because the OL was having trouble implementing the original blocking scheme they were trying to run.

 

@S.T.D in da house

 

I live locally and have not heard about so called attitude problem with Najee. My friends he is a 3 tool rb, I hope the Steelers and Najee can work something out.

 

Take a look at this article. Its what I have been trying to say to you regarding Najee.

When the Pittsburgh Steelers declined the fifth-year option on the contract of running back Najee Harris last week, it caught many off-guard and struck many longtime observers of the team as an un-Steelers like move.

It certainly is not the kind of move that the Steelers would have made under Kevin Colbert, the general manager who drafted Harris to Pittsburgh with the team’s first-round pick in 2021.

That move was derided by those around the league for failing to understand the diminished value of running backs currently. That was one of a number of such moves made toward the end of Colbert’s tenure.


























After using the team’s first-round pick on outside linebacker T.J. Watt in 2017, the Steelers drafted safety Terrell Edmunds in 2018, traded up for linebacker Devin Bush in 2019, traded for safety Minkah Fitzpatrick in 2020 and then used the 2021 pick on Harris. That’s four straight drafts where the Steelers used their first-round pick on a non-premium position. Only once out of those four years was the player deemed worth of picking up the fifth-year option on their contract (Fitzpatrick.)

It seems that an understanding of position value that is more along the lines of the rest of the NFL is going to be one of the major differences between new general manager Omar Khan and his predecessor.

In each of the Steelers’ first two drafts, Khan has used his first-round pick on a tackle, among the most premium possible position in terms of value. That’s a small sample, but it seems to be a fairly stark difference.

Let’s step back for a moment. What makes a position valuable in terms of the draft?

Good players are good players. But intuitively, not all players impact the football team to the same amount. No one would ever draft a long snapper in the first round. The way we can measure that value is by seeing what teams pay for top starters in the free agent market.

The current top 10 quarterback salaries, according to average annual value, are Joe Burrow ($55m), Justin Herbert ($52.5m), Lamar Jackson ($52m), Jalen Hurts ($51m), Kyler Murray ($46.1m), Deshaun Watson ($46m), Patrick Mahomes ($45m), Josh Allen ($43m) and Dak Prescott, Matthew Stafford and Daniel Jones ($40m). That’s an average of $47.1 million for a top-10 quarterback.

At wide receiver, the top contracts belong to A.J. Brown ($32m), Amon-Ra St. Brown ($30m), Tyreek Hill ($30m), Davante Adams ($28m), Cooper Kupp ($26.7m), DeVonta Smith ($25), D.K. Metcalf ($24m), Deebo Samuel ($23.9m), Michael Pittman Jr. ($23.3m) and Calvin Ridley ($23m). That’s an average of $26.6 million for a top-10 wide receiver.

San Francisco 49ers wid receiver Deebo Samuel against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Sept. 12, 2023. — Ed Thompson / Steelers Now

" data-medium-file="https://steelersnow.com/wp-content/...crisure-Stadium-Pittsburgh-PA-500-500x353.jpg" data-large-file="https://steelersnow.com/wp-content/...risure-Stadium-Pittsburgh-PA-500-1024x723.jpg" class="size-large wp-image-49200" src="https://b3288695.smushcdn.com/32886...gh-PA-500-1024x723.jpg?lossy=2&strip=1&webp=1" alt="Steelers 49ers Deebo Samuel" width="740" height="522" srcset="https://b3288695.smushcdn.com/32886...A-500.jpg?size=148x104&lossy=2&strip=1&webp=1 148w, https://b3288695.smushcdn.com/32886...A-500.jpg?size=296x209&lossy=2&strip=1&webp=1 296w, https://b3288695.smushcdn.com/32886...A-500.jpg?size=444x313&lossy=2&strip=1&webp=1 444w, https://b3288695.smushcdn.com/32886...rgh-PA-500-500x353.jpg?lossy=2&strip=1&webp=1 500w, https://b3288695.smushcdn.com/32886...A-500.jpg?size=592x418&lossy=2&strip=1&webp=1 592w, https://b3288695.smushcdn.com/32886...rgh-PA-500-768x542.jpg?lossy=2&strip=1&webp=1 768w, https://b3288695.smushcdn.com/32886...gh-PA-500-1024x723.jpg?lossy=2&strip=1&webp=1 1024w, https://b3288695.smushcdn.com/32886...h-PA-500-1536x1084.jpg?lossy=2&strip=1&webp=1 1536w, https://b3288695.smushcdn.com/32886...-Pittsburgh-PA-500.jpg?lossy=2&strip=1&webp=1 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 740px) 100vw, 740px" style="-x-ignore: 1">
San Francisco 49ers wid receiver Deebo Samuel against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Sept. 12, 2023. — Ed Thompson / Steelers Now

NFL rookies are paid on a flat scale based on their draft position. No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams is expected to sign a four-year contract worth $38.5 million with the Chicago Bears, or an annual average value of $9.6 million.

If Williams turns out to be a top-10 quarterback over the first four years of his rookie contract, he will save the Bears $37.5 million per year against the salary cap, when compared to what they would have paid on the free agent market.

If the Bears had instead drafted top receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., and he turned out to be a top 10 NFL wideout over the course of his rookie contract, he would have saved the Bears $17 million per year against the salary cap, compared to what they would have paid on the free agent market.

So as you can see, drafting a quarterback holds a much greater positional value than a wide receiver.

Now, what about positions of lesser value? The average of the top 10 running back salaries is $10.7 million. Even if a player is a sure-fire top 10 running back, taking them with the first overall pick would net only $1.1 million in surplus value.


That surplus value is important. It’s impossible to pay players top market value at every position. The salary cap will not allow it. For a team to accumulate top talent across the board, it requires places with a significant positive difference between what the team is paying and what the team is getting. Such values can be found in trades and free agency, usually by taking risks on unheralded, under-utilized, problematic or previously injured players. But by far the easier and more repeatable path to finding that positive difference is through the draft.

That doesn’t mean that players at non-premium positions can’t represent good value. But it places a greater need for the pick to pan out as projected to create value.

If our theoretical first overall running back turned out to be a top five player in the NFL at his position, he’d still be providing some solid value. The average of the top five salaries is $13.9 million. But if he’s merely a top 20 running back? His contract would actually be negative in terms of surplus value provided. You can get a top 20 running back in free agency for less than the No. 1 overall rookie contract.

Fitzpatrick is an example of a pick at a non-premium position working out. The average of the top five safety salaries in 2018 was $11.3 million. Fitzpatrick signed a four-year deal worth $4.1 million. With Fitzpatrick being named a first-team All-Pro twice in his first four seasons, it’s easy to say that he provided Miami and Pittsburgh with a significant surplus over his rookie contract.

Pittsburgh Steelers safety Minkah Fitzpatrick against the Buffalo bills, Jan. 17, 2024 – Ed Thompson / Steelers Now

" data-medium-file="https://steelersnow.com/wp-content/...-Highmark-Stadium-Buffalo-NY-4377-500x361.jpg" data-large-file="https://steelersnow.com/wp-content/...Highmark-Stadium-Buffalo-NY-4377-1024x738.jpg" class="size-large wp-image-61053" src="https://b3288695.smushcdn.com/32886...o-NY-4377-1024x738.jpg?lossy=2&strip=1&webp=1" alt="Pittsburgh Steelers FS Minkah Fitzpatrick" width="740" height="533" srcset="https://b3288695.smushcdn.com/32886...-4377.jpg?size=148x107&lossy=2&strip=1&webp=1 148w, https://b3288695.smushcdn.com/32886...-4377.jpg?size=296x213&lossy=2&strip=1&webp=1 296w, https://b3288695.smushcdn.com/32886...-4377.jpg?size=444x320&lossy=2&strip=1&webp=1 444w, https://b3288695.smushcdn.com/32886...lo-NY-4377-500x361.jpg?lossy=2&strip=1&webp=1 500w, https://b3288695.smushcdn.com/32886...-4377.jpg?size=592x426&lossy=2&strip=1&webp=1 592w, https://b3288695.smushcdn.com/32886...lo-NY-4377-768x554.jpg?lossy=2&strip=1&webp=1 768w, https://b3288695.smushcdn.com/32886...o-NY-4377-1024x738.jpg?lossy=2&strip=1&webp=1 1024w, https://b3288695.smushcdn.com/32886...-NY-4377-1536x1108.jpg?lossy=2&strip=1&webp=1 1536w, https://b3288695.smushcdn.com/32886...alo-NY-4377-scaled.jpg?lossy=2&strip=1&webp=1 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 740px) 100vw, 740px" style="-x-ignore: 1">
Pittsburgh Steelers safety Minkah Fitzpatrick against the Buffalo bills, Jan. 17, 2024 – Ed Thompson / Steelers Now

That’s why the Steelers were eager to pick up the fifth-year option on his contract for 2022 and re-sign him to a contract extension after that.

Teams don’t have to draft only premium positions in order to get value out of their draft classes, and need certainly must enter the equation. But by drafting positions of greater value, it gives much more leeway in terms of scouting misses, especially in the first round, where an error over the first four years is compounded by missing out on the fifth-year option and the additional surplus value it can create.

The Steelers signed Broderick Jones to a contract with an average annual value of $4.2 million. He is currently the 46th-highest paid tackle in the NFL. As long as he turns out to be any kind of even average starter, he will represent strong value for the Steelers. The same can be said of Troy Fautanu, who is expected to sign for an average of $3.8 million annually that would rank 48th among tackles.

Many wanted the Steelers to address the center position instead of taking Fautanu at No. 20 overall. But a center making $3.8 million per year would rank 21st. By drafting a non-premium position, it puts much more pressure on the evaluation working out correctly.

There are 25 tackles that make more than the highest-paid center. So if Graham Barton turns out to be the best center in the NFL on his rookie deal, but Fautanu is the 20th-best tackle, the Steelers will be getting more value out of him than they would have by addressing center earlier.

Troy Fautanu, Washington Athletics

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Troy Fautanu, Washington Athletics

The problem that the Steelers too often ran into during the latter years of Colbert’s tenure was drafting positions of non-premium value and then not hitting on the pick. Edmunds is a fine starter, but was never among the best of his position. Bush is barely still in the league.

Harris is not a disaster of a player. He’s been a strong starter for the Steelers, and durable at a position where durability is rare. But he finished 21st in the league in yards per carry last season, and well behind his (previously undrafted) teammate Jaylen Warren. The Steelers got three 1,000-yard seasons out of Harris under his rookie contract, and should expect to likely get a fourth in 2024. But he is not one of the best players in the league at his position. For a non-premium position, that is the value that is required to be worth a fifth-year option. That’s why drafting a running back when the Steelers did was folly in the first place.

Khan might not turn out to be a better drafter than Colbert. There is a long way to go before we’ll be able to fairly compare his draft classes to his predecessor’s. But by following the league’s focus on positional value, his is building himself a significant margin of error that Colbert did not.

 

Next time I’ll just wait for the movie.

 

I get it. I copied and pasted the article. I tried attaching it but it wouldn’t work.

 

I am not too surprised that the Steelers didn't pick up the option. Within that same vein, I am surprised to believe that others believe an early round choice on a Running Back will be in the cards in 2025. While I myself have been on record in saying that the 2025 RB class will be leagues above the 2024 one, I also have stated that, for any of this to work out, either Russell Wilson or Justin Fields have to pan out first. Hell, even one does pan out first, what about IDL?! What about Cornerback?! Wide Receiver may still need addressed after this season if the assumed outside addition the Steelers will have to make doesn't make the impact that the team wants.


Between me and the OP, while RB will likely be a focus headed into 2025, don't expect it to be among the most critical list of needs; doubly so if neither Wilson or Fields pan out.

 

Johnson was dealt because of his attitude. I think the fumble incident was likely the final straw, and the FO is choosing to deal with Pickens because he has more intangibles and higher ceiling. They brought in Wilson, who as a prospect (scouting) is essentially a faster version of Johnson (scouting) with better hands.

It feels thin because the players are new to their roles. Pickens grew from 52/801/4 to 63/1140/5 in his second year, but this would be his first season as the true WR1. While his scouting report is promising, Wilson is still a rookie that has to show it in the pros. Still, it's worth noting that he'll be part of replacing Johnson's 2023 production of 51/717/5, who as the rookie Wilson appears to mirror, put up 59/680/5.

 

Lol. There's a happy medium to be had.

 

They got lucky with Frazier falling to them. If that hadn't happened, there would be yet another huge hole in the offense. None of that changes the fact that Khan has failed to properly address their need at receiver.

I already responded regarding Harris. That was mostly baseless speculation and completely unfair to Harris.

 

What are these intangibles Pickens has that Johnson did not? He has physical gifts Johnson lacks, but Johnson is also a much better route-runner.

 

Please link the article. This author is expecting us to rely heavily on their expertise, so it would help to know the source.

This article ignores how cheap a running back's fifth-year option is in relation to other positions. It also makes a dubious argument that Harris isn't among the top backs in the league. Durability and versatility matter. Protecting the ball matters. Total yards matter. He ignored all of those for average per carry, which is more dubious logic.

 

You are making my point. Warren had 106 less carries. That means he would have to average 2.3 yards per carry on those extra 106 carries to match Najees total. Are you saying he would average less than that on the additional 106 carries? I don't think so. He's just a better RB. Doesn't matter that one was a 1st round pick and the other was an UDFA. I think the Steelers know this too and that's why they didn't pick up Najees 5th year option.

 

What???? Actually listen to what You are saying.
I'm done. It's like trying to teach algebra to a fish. I really don't know how to make this any more simple......So by Your logic. We should have made the Bus a Qb.....because He threw 3tds on 4 passes. LoL
You can't compare any averages on that many more carries. It can't, and wouldn't be fair to either rb. A lot of different things can happen in 106 more carries.
Here is a pure fact nobody can disagree with.
We know Najee can carry the load the whole season if any other rbs go down, and without fumbling problems.
Nobody has a clue if Warren can....it's all conjecture.

 

I agree, the cost was fair. And it would seem with Smith's offense and further improvements to the line the table was set for Harris to have increased production (as well as Warren).

Like I've said, I think they make a good tandem, and personally wouldn't have broken them up before I had to. But it appears Khan and Co. feel differently.