The case for/against Najee Harris...

Do we know the percentage of players that had the 5th year option declined and then resigned with the same team

 

I was wondering the same.

 

They would extend him for less than 7million per year.

 

And Najee yards would be much higher if he didn't have share the load with Warren, fans love to dismiss getting 1,000 yards then how come Najee is the only RB to do it the last three seasons?

 

Yeah, let's draft more RBs like Benny Snell and Jaylen Samuels .

 

The first running back taken this year was #46. Why don't you ask about last year, when they went 8 and 12? In 2022 they were 36 and 41. In 2021, they were 24 and 25. And Travis Etienne, picked after Najee, had his option picked up.

 

And what do you attribute to the 2 yrs prior when he wasn't sharing the load???..
BTW... I have an entire list for AND against..
Can we actually carry on a full intelligent discussion on the whole topic

 

I'll preface this by stating that I don't see either back as 'better' per se. I think they're both solid backs that compliment each other well. That said, short yardage splits alone don't explain the difference in YPC between the two. Harris was clearly the more trusted back inside the opponent's 10 yard line, where he had 23 carries for 63 yards and 8 TD (vs. Warren's 8/4/0). But even if you remove them from the rest of his carries, Harris's YPC only increases by 0.2, becoming 4.3 against Warren's 5.3.

Looking at their respective YPC across different distance-to-go tiers doesn't show a great disparity in the short game:

1-3: Harris 3.4/Warren 3.1
4-6: Harris 3.2/Warren 3.7
7-9: Harris 3.3/Warren 10.2
10+: Harris 4.5/Warren 5.3

And interestingly, there isn't a great difference in the % of total attempts within those distances:

1-3: Harris 9.4%/Warren 13.4%
4-6: Harris 16.4%/Warren 12.8%
7-9: Harris 12.2%/Warren 10.1%
10+: Harris 61.9%/Warren 63.7%

Maybe the org is looking at Warren's ability to stay close to Harris's YPC across short distance situations, and thinking that if the line is improved he could have more utility there, while giving them more upside because of his more dynamic attributes. In the meantime they look to acquire a complimentary bully back more cheaply (and potentially with more upside) than Harris via the draft or free agency next year.

I like Harris, and personally would've spent the $7M to pick up his option. But I don't think his production is all that hard to replace either. And while I understand the benefits of cost certainty, it appears this FO is willing to keep a few more plates spinning than its predecessors in order to upgrade its talent.

 

Also, they forget that only six running backs in the entire NFL had more yards than Harris in 2023.

 

That, or the current front office is so caught up in making every deal a bargain that they are losing the good in pursuit of the perfect. Sometimes that works. Sometimes it fails miserably. See the current hole at wide receiver if they don't make another move to address it.

 

the way i see it is they want a deal. if they pay him 7 mil. next year the following year it is harder to ask for less than that. i think they may want a deal at about 5 mil. per year.

as for big hole at WR, i don't think is that big. DJ led the team but we also have a young guy hopefully getting better in pickens that has shown he needs to get the ball more. wilson was a fine add.
austin is more than just a fast little guy and only really in his second year of play. they have filled in with guys that are capable with jefferson, watkins, callaway, mims, patterson, fitzpatrick, watts. they could add another but i don't think that will be the biggest part of the offense anyway.

RB's can make a team. many are dismissing this positions value. yes that may be true for some teams. ours will be built around it. look at green bay. they had two good ones that carried the team. KC had a good one that really helped them all season. he was a big part of that offense. baltimore had at least 3 that made that offense go. san fran had a very good one. dallas had a couple with virtually one big time WR. miami had a good run game. detroit had a good run game. all playoff teams. most of these teams did it without 3-4 big time WR's but mainly one guy and some young guys that got the job done for them.

 

I agree with this post, and I too would have picked up his fifth-year option.

I would add that Harris had the most carries of any back and the fewest runs of forty yards or more. Taking it to the house is a rarity for him and maybe this figured into the decision. Similar to the fact that Picket averaged the ALL TIME lowest per centage of touchdowns to completion ratio. (I also do not dislike Picket)

 

Jaylen Warren. Willie Parker were undrafted. So there's that.

Both of those you mention were under the Colbert/Tomlin drafts.

I trust in Khan and Weidl to find a stud in the later rounds.

 

Great post. The biggest question .... I don’t know if it is a pro or con is will he fit in Arthur Smiths offense? Arthur Smith is all about the wide zone run blocking scheme and when we tried to run Najee in that last year he did not do well. Was that because of the poor line play last year or was it Najee’s lack of speed. I will say when you lack speed at the RB position in that scheme you often get chased down by back side pursuit. When you have a back that is decisive with good vision and the speed to get laterally and plant and go when they see the hole it works to perfection. You watch the SF game and Watt could not catch Mcaffrey in the backside pursuit because of Mcaffrey’s speed.

I truly think this all comes down Najees fit in this scheme. In todays NFL you want to be diverse in your blocking scheme and mix it up in order to keep the defense off balance. If we are one dimensional and only run power with Najee it limits us and makes us much more predictable. Teams can truly load up to stop the run. If you have the ability to do multiple blocking schemes with the same players in their it is a real advantage. Part really loves that big back in their though and the ball security and durability. However if you are a big back and try to run like a little back and you don’t take advantage of your size and power (as Najee so often has done) then what is the point. The whole 1,000 yard thing to me is overblown with a 17 game season. Yeah I know there aren’t as many 1,000 yard rushers each season in todays NFL but that is because we pass the ball alot more in the NFL now than we used too.

 

Yes we had poor line play last year. But you can’t completely dismiss the fact that Najee has struggled in Wide Zone scheme run concepts. Was it because of the line? Was it because of Najee lacking speed, decivesness or vision? Nobody knows but we will be certain this year. I would have offered him the option to be on the safe side but I can also understand why they didn’t offer the fifth year option. Its an aggressive move and Khan is certainly alot more aggressive than Colbert was. We applaud all of Khans other aggressive moves. You take the good with the bad. He may make some mistakes along the way being aggressive.

Your argument on the 1,000 yard season and Najee being 7th is a little misleading. I don’t want to dismiss that as an accomplishment on his part but you can’t deny the fact that in a 17 game season it certainly wasn’t what it once was. Not to mention so many teams have multiple backs now running the ball you have significantly less 1,000 yard backs as a result. In addition the run game in and of itself isn’t what it once was in the NFL with so much focus being on the passing game now. I do agree with you on adding a another hole to fill next year now. But you can’t let that cause you to settle for a player when you think you can position yourself to legitimately upgrade at that position in the future. A perfect example of this is what Colbert did with Ogunjobi. We resigned him after one year because it was perceived that he was at minimum an above average starter and would stabilize that position. We over paid for him and locked ourselves into that contract and he has underwhelmed from a performance perspective. What lead to that decision on our part was fear. We were fearful we couldn’t get someone better in the draft or free agency the following year so we extended the guy. Bad contracts or poor fits can really set your team back. The bottom line is I think they like Warren better and see him as a better for their offense moving forward. I lean more toward the conservative side and if your not sure to be on the safe side you do the fifth year option or in the case of Ogunjob you extend the guy but I’m not as aggressive as Khan. However I probably still wouldn’t have resigned Ogunjobi.

You can also say Khan is being aggressive in a way not signing any of these other WR’s in free agency like DJ Chark or Odell. A FO living in their fears would have absolutely signed one of these FA WR’s to solidify the position. I believe Omar is still holding out to make a trade hear at some point over the next few months. Heck even in the draft alot of FO would have traded up to get their Center in the second round after JPJ went off the board just to be sure Frazier wouldn’t get plucked in front of you. Omar is making bold calculated moves. You have to applaud the guy for being willing to take risks to make this team better. Its alot more exciting than status quo.

 

Najee had 1,200 yards rushing as a rookie with a trash OL, and caught 70 passes, the next two years his carries was cut or he would've put up better numbers.

 

I don't like the decision at all, they should have plenty of cap space in 2025, Larry O, Daniels, and Cam could be off the books. Paying Najee 7 million would've only made him like the 12th highest paid RB.

 

They are replacing Johnson with flotsam and filler, hoping Wilson can make big contributions as a rookie or Austin can develop into something. Those other guys you brought up were available for very good reasons. Jefferson is the best of the group, that's a very low bar.

People act as if Smith's preference for two-receiver sets makes the position less important. It doesn't. It makes it more important that you have at least two guys who are very productive on the outside. The Steelers don't have that right now.

 

Harris ran well in those schemes at Alabama, so yes, I put it on the line not being able to execute those concepts properly. Sure, Harris could be better. He definitely needs to stop dancing, but part of that is not being able to trust his offensive line. The line has been terrible early in the season every year of his career. That shouldn't be the case this year.

You are also forgetting that the rule change getting rid of hip-drop tackles is going to favor power backs like Harris. It is going to be harder to take him down.

Ogunjobi was a misjudgement of his health. He had a long history of injuries and they have led to diminished capacity. Harris doesn't have that. He had that one injury, his foot in 2022, and has been durable otherwise. He even played through that one.

It is not misleading at all to point out that Harris was seventh in the NFL in rushing. The valid approach is to compare him to his peers. He was in the top seven and the Steelers could have had him in 2025 for a salary that would only put him 12th in the league.

 

Good question.

 

I will repeat this once again. 80% of the 2nd Rbs YPA are higher. To anyone that has actually played, or has watched football for very long knows why this is.

 

D&D