Division title is already gone.

this thread should be merged with the Wild Card thread.

Give me a Batch to Plax TD combo and we may well have a fighting chance.

 

No, head to head point differntial doesn't mean anything. A long long time ago, head-to-head point differential meant something, but it hasn't in probably 40yrs. And when the NFL re-did the the tiebreakers last time in 2002, the took out the remaining point differential tiebreakers for net points in division games/ confernece games.

Here's the skinny on possible Pit/Balt tiebreakers, Baltimore has the clear edge right now. Things can change but even with a Pit win at Balt, Baltimore still has the edge on most relevent tiebreakers.

Head to Head: Only the Ravens can win this if they win the rematch at home. The Steelers can't win this.

Common Opponents: The 2nd TB in the division. But this too will be a tie if Balt and Pit finished tied. How can I say this w/ 6 weeks left?
Well, Pit and Balt paly 14 common opponents, and 2 ucommon ones (Balt: NE and Houston, Pit: NYJ and Tn). Since both teams have split with their uncommon opponents, if they are tied at season end, the will have to have the same record w/ their common ones. Neither team will win the Common Oppenents tie breaker.

Division Record: Balt is 4-0 in the Division, the Steelers are 1-1. Pit can only beat Balt on this TB if they sweep their last 4 division games and Balt loses the finale to Cincy, in that case the Steelers will be 5-1 in the division and Balt will be 4-2. If Balt beats Cincy, Pit can't win this TB.

Conf Record: Currently Balt is 7-1 in the conference, Pit is 3-4. If Balt wins 2 more conf games (assuming they lose to Pit, they have Den, @SD and Cincy), they will clinch this TB.

Strength of Victory: The W-L record of the teams you beat. Right now Baltimore holds this tiebreaker, but that can change.


It's highly unlikely that tiebreakers will go beyond Strength of Victory. So I won't dig deeper now.

 

Yeah TTF but you can count on Ben getting hurt every year lately. Hey, we know he is the reason we are usually in the hunt but at times we pay for his play. I don't think anyone of us wants him to change his style either, even though we whine when he does get hurt.

 

Like I said the only real hope is for Pitt to win out and Cinci to pull the win on the last day of the season. Which is the same thing that happened last year. They have got to figure out a way to pull these key match-ups out of thier asses. I hate that "every game is the same" crap. They clearly are not! If this week had been a loss to Cleveland they still would have tier destiny in thier hands by grabbing a sweep on the Ravens.

 

I don't understand why so many Steeler fans are writing us off in to win the AFC NORTH. Sure, it may be somewhat of a longshot, but like you said, this coming Sunday could put us right back in the hunt with a Ravens loss & a Steelers win. The Ravens could very easily lose to the Chargers, and even with the Steelers injury woes, I say we have an above average shot at beating Clev. DO NOT COUNT THE STEELERS OUT OF WINNING OUR DIVISION JUST YET !!

 

Just to put the impact of Baltimore current edge in tiebreakers in perspective......

I put together a spreadsheet that worked out the 2048 possible scenarios that can play out for the Ravens and Steelers over the next 6 games. Tiebreakers are considered.

Right now in about 90% of the scenarios Baltimore wins the division

If Baltimore loses in SD and Pit beats Cleveland, Baltimore still wins the division in 78% of the scenarions.

If Baltimore loses in SD, and Pit beats Cleveland and then beat Baltimore the following week, Baltimore still wins the division in 61% of the scenarios.

This is true because Baltimore has 4 divsion wins in the bag, and Pit has one. This is true because the Steelers have lost 4 conf games and Balt has lost only one. This is true becuase of bad loses to Oak and Tenessee. The hole they've dug is so big, that everything going the Steelers way over the next two week will not get them out of it.

 

I've been pretty critical of this year's team up to this point--and I still think there are some big concerns.

However, I think we are getting (and have gotten) significantly better in the areas of our weaknesses. Consequently, it is my humble opinion that we are the best team in the AFC right now, with the possible exception of Houston. If we were healthy and the playoffs started this week, I would like our chances.

 

Your absolutely correct in saying that we would lose virtually every tiebreak scenerio ...but lets say Ravens lose to Chargers/Steelers beat Clev ... then beat the Ravens. This would put us a mere half game out with 4 games to play (if im not mistaken) Call me overly-optimistic, but I wasn't referring to tiebreakers.

 

See the above. If the Ravens lose to SD and Pit, and Pit beats Cle and then the Ravens. The Ravens STILL have the edge, due to tiebreakers. Both teams will be 8-4. But you can't ignore tiebreakers, especially when you are at a HUGE disadvantage with them.

 

It's really not that hard to understand. Once again this team still needs Cinci to beat Baltimore to have a real shot at the divison or Batimore who's won 8 of 10 to loose 3 of 6 and still win out to take the division.

 

That is true, but at the same time the Steelers can't afford to lose to Cincy or either game to Cleve. If they do that, Baltimore losing to Cincy won't matter much.

 

Its been going in the direction of a slow decline since Tomlin arrived. Tomlin rode the team that Cowher built to the SB but was given all the credit. Time is showing this team is in decline, not being able to win games to lower ranked teams, failure to maintain leads, ST that are still suspect either by giving up TD's or having returns called back for penlitilies, the fans have no idea which team will show uo to play, no accountibility. Cowher may have had his faults in the big games, but those players came to play physical football each week and would rather bury themselves at mid field than face Chower on the sidelines for some stupid penilty. Tomlin receives to much credit for a win and not enough accountibility for losses. We will be lucky to be 500 at the end of the season.

 

No, the division title isn't gone-yet. They still have another game with the Ravens, and if they can win that, they'll still have a shot. The Ravens have a difficult road ahead- remember the Chargers absolutely killed them out there last year, plus games with Denver and the Giants, and what may be a desperate Bengals team in week 17. Ask me again in 2 weeks.