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Updated AFC Playoff Forecast

Discussion in 'Steelers Talk' started by WWW, Dec 12, 2011.

  1. WWW

    WWW Writing Team

    1,164
    80
    Oct 24, 2011
    I've updated the AFC Playoff Forecast as it looks like right now:

    Black = current record. Red = what I think are close games and possible losses. Blue = the potential record based on maximum & minimum possible losses
    Current Division Leaders:
    Houston: 10-3; CAR, @IND, TEN. 13-3, 12-4
    Baltimore: 10-3; @SD, CLE, @CIN 13-3, 12-4
    NE: 10-3; @DEN, MIA, BUF 13-3, 12-4
    Denver: 8-5; NE, @BUF, KC 11-5, 10-6

    Current Wild Card Race:
    Pittsburgh: 10-3; @SF, STL, @CLE 13-3 or 12-4
    NY Jets: 8-5; @PHI, NYG, @ MIA 11-5, 10-6, 9-7 or 8-8
    Oakland: 7-6; @DET, @KC, SD 10-6, 9-7 or 8-8
    Cincinnati: 7-6; @STL, ARI, BAL 10-6 or 9-7
    Tennessee: 7-6; @IND, JAX, @HOU 10-6 or 9-7

    My guess is:
    Balt will drop a game @ SD or @CIN(12-4)
    NE will lose one (12-4) (Denver or Miami)
    Hou will lose one (12-4) (Carolina)
    Den will go undefeated, or lose one (11-5 or 10-6) (Possibly NE)
    We'll handle our stuff, but SF being a close call (13-3 or 12-4)
    Oakland will struggle vs Det (9-7)
    Cinci will lose 1 vs Bal (9-7)
    Tenn Wil lose to Hou (9-7)
    NYJ will lose 2 or 3 (9-7 or 8-8)

    Unchanged Forecast from last week among division winners:
    This way, NE, Hou and Den will be divison leaders.
    Bal and Pitt's seed will depend mostly on our game vs SF than anything else (I'm pretty sure they'll drop one, if not @SD, then @CIN). One takes the division, the other the #5
    #6 seed is still anybodys guess

    And for one more week, we're still on our division race.
    We still need Houston & Baltimore to lose, so if we win all our remaining games we could be #1 AFC seed
    If Bal wins out, we'll be #5.
    If we win out, Bal loses a game and Houston goes undefeated, we'll be #3 (with Conf record being 1st tiebreaker, NE & Hou will be 10-2, and Pitt 9-3)
    If we win out and both Bal & Hou drop 1, we will be #1 (We own the tiebreaker vs NE)

    With a win on either of our 3 remaining games we lock a playoff berth.

    Scenarios:
    To lock a playoff berth next week, we need:
    a) a Win
    b) a loss, and an Oakland loss
    c) There are possibly other combinations, not sure right now

    To win the division:
    a) a Baltimore loss and us winning our 3 remaining games
    b) 2 Balt losses and us losing only 1
    c) 3 Balt losses and us losing twice

    To win the AFC #1 seed
    a) Win our 3 remaining games, Bal & Houston losing one game each
    b) Win 2 games, Bal & Houston losing 2 games each
    c) Win 1 game, Bal & Hou losing their 3 remaining games
     
  2. Thigpen82

    Thigpen82 Bitter optimist

    10,242
    1,426
    Oct 17, 2011
    Cheers man, useful guide.

    I was more confident about Cincinnati beating Baltimore before Sunday... they have a lot of weapons, but they're not consistent enough yet. I think they might actually have a better shot if they're already eliminated by that point.
    Mind you, if Dalton just throws to Green 30 times a game, the law of averages says they'll win.
     
  3. lersgofor7

    lersgofor7 Well-Known Member

    772
    0
    Dec 6, 2011
    titans will not roll over for the texans...they might be fighting for their playoff life come week 17
     
  4. lersgofor7

    lersgofor7 Well-Known Member

    772
    0
    Dec 6, 2011
    If we win out, Bal loses a game and Houston goes undefeated, we'll be #2 (We own the Tiebreaker over NE)


    this is not true...if all 3 are tied it goes by conference record...we would be the #3 seed
     
  5. TarheelFlyer

    TarheelFlyer Well-Known Member

    2,129
    56
    Oct 25, 2011
    Baltimore @ Cinn. is a really good shot of being a blood bath. They don't like each other any more than we like them. Baltimore could be playing for the #1 seed or a first round bye. Cinn. could be playing to actually make the playoffs. It could be a good one.
     
  6. WWW

    WWW Writing Team

    1,164
    80
    Oct 24, 2011
    You're right. I've edited the scenario in the original post. Thanks.
     
  7. lersgofor7

    lersgofor7 Well-Known Member

    772
    0
    Dec 6, 2011
    it sux bc we should have the advantage...they need to change it...
     
  8. mdbates2

    mdbates2 Well-Known Member

    1,359
    1
    Nov 3, 2011
    Why would NE be the #2 seed if we, they and Houston win out? Wouldn't our win over New England put us ahead of them?
     
  9. CaBurghfan

    CaBurghfan Well-Known Member

    192
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    Oct 17, 2011
  10. CaBurghfan

    CaBurghfan Well-Known Member

    192
    0
    Oct 17, 2011

    No, because a 3 way tie uses a different tiebreaker than a 2 way, head to head tie, and we would lose that one.
     
  11. takenoprisoners1

    takenoprisoners1 Well-Known Member

    4,118
    340
    Nov 7, 2011
    Thanks for the update. Just a point of clarification for me. My (limited) understanding suggests that when tiebreakers are employed, they are to determine the winner, and when a winner is determined, then all other teams revert to a new tiebreaker to determine #2, etc.

    So, in the 3-way tie scenario between NE, Hou, and Pitt -- the fact that Pittsburgh is eliminated from the initial tiebreaker because of conference record doesn't PLACE them as the #3 seed, does it? It merely eliminates them from #1 contention. So then, the tiebreaker between New England and Houston continues beyond conference record to record against common opponents (also a tie), then to strength of victory where New England currently holds a +8 assuming they both win out (Ah, those 2 wins against Indy would really help Houston if it came to that). So, New England gets #1. Then, don't the tiebreakers start over pitting Pittsburgh against Houston (in which case we lose anyway and are STILL the #3 seed!!!!)

    But, hypothetically if the scenario above was correct and say Houston had strength of victory over New England. Wouldn't Pittsburgh be #2 in that scenario if the tiebreakers start over after #1 is determined?

    Anyway, just trying to enhance my understanding. I suppose things could be worse than needing to travel to Denver, then Houston before ending up at Baltimore or New England if we don't get the help we need from some of the underdogs....

    Thanks!
     
  12. truckin9999

    truckin9999 Well-Known Member

    5,031
    976
    Oct 16, 2011
    In a 3-way tie, Once the odd team is eliminated they become the 3rd seed. The remaining 2 teams will start over using the 2 team procedure, starting with head-to-head and proceeding down the list of tie breakers from there. These 2 teams will be seeded #1 and #2.
     
  13. Steeldefense08

    Steeldefense08 Well-Known Member

    481
    0
    Oct 16, 2011
    I still think the current playoff rules suck and need to change. No way should an 8-5 team (i dont care if they win their division) should be hosting a playoff game over the steelers or any team that has a better record. With the current standings, we should be a 4th seed hosting the broncos which are a 5th seed.

    (example)so if the ratbirds win the division with 13-3 and lets say we are 13-3. Our losses came from both games of the ratbirds and 1 from 49ers (we won over texans & pats). The pats and texans are 12-4. Ratbirds 1, Steelers 2, Pat/tex 3-4, broncos 5, jets 6.
     
  14. truckin9999

    truckin9999 Well-Known Member

    5,031
    976
    Oct 16, 2011
    our losses are, 2 from the Ravens and 1 from the Texans.. not the 49ers. If the Steelers lose to the 49ers on Monday.. this would be our 4th loss.

    Winning your division must come with a bonus, other then just making the playoffs. If winning your division didn't insure at least 1 home playoff game, the division races would be worthless. If it was reversed, we would be bitching that we deserve a home game for winning our division.
     
  15. lersgofor7

    lersgofor7 Well-Known Member

    772
    0
    Dec 6, 2011

    read previous posts
     
  16. lersgofor7

    lersgofor7 Well-Known Member

    772
    0
    Dec 6, 2011

    This site basically says we have clinched a spot.... :herewego!:
     
  17. chuckie_os

    chuckie_os Well-Known Member

    209
    13
    Nov 14, 2011
    I feel like the seeding will be:
    1 Pats
    2. Baltimore
    3. Houston
    4. Denver
    5. Steelers
    6. jets

    if this is how it goes, I think we get revenge in houst and we end up playing baltimore with the jets beating denver and heading to NE
     
  18. Steeldefense08

    Steeldefense08 Well-Known Member

    481
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    Oct 16, 2011

    God dammit. Did u not see "example" before my story? I'm making a scenario up.
     
  19. Emerald Steel

    Emerald Steel Well-Known Member

    64
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    Dec 8, 2011
    Denver in the wildcard round.
    Houston in the divisional round.
    Baltimore in the AFC Championship.
    Green Bay in the Superbowl.

    :herewego!:
     
  20. jhmiller3

    jhmiller3 Well-Known Member

    427
    0
    Oct 22, 2011
    No, if this is how it goes then we go to Denver and Jets go to Houston. Assuming we win, it depends on who wins the 3 vs 6 game. Jets win we go to Baltimore. Houston wins we go to NE.
     

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