Discussion in 'The Bill Nunn Draft Room' started by Steelers113, Apr 14, 2018.
I think if any year, this is the year we move. Up or down we would still get some good players.
Steelers dont panic. They meticulously make a board and stick to it religiously.
Thats why their picks are in so fast. They just move down the list.
If they were panicking on the Burns pick, they would have used up their entire clock. Goodell barely got done announcing Cicnys pick when Steelers already put theirs in.
Now, did they draft need over pure BPA? Most likely but drafting BPA at a position of need is their MO in the first rd.
JuJu in the second last year I believe was pure BPA.
I agree they go BPA, but every teams board is different. By picking fast they dont give themselves a chance to see if you could slide back a couple picks and still get your guy. I think its important to know other teams needs and also when players are most likely to be picked. Maybe the steelers do this behind the scenes, but sometimes it does just seem they pick off their big board and i can't help but think they could have moved back and got that guy later while acquiring a pick.
I've thought of that before myself, it couldn't hurt to hear the options if a team behind them is willing to wheel and deal.
At Safety we have Davis and Burnet who can start and one backup in Wilcox. So really we only need a backup.
At ILB we have Bostic and Williams who can start and backups Matakevich and Fort. So really we only need a backup.
At OLB we have Watt and Dupree who can start and Chickillo as a backup. So we only need a backup.
Yes I want better starting talent at Safety and ILB but if the value isn't there then we get a backup later in the draft at those positions.
This is what I do know.
1. CB was our biggest need.
2. The surefire 1st rd cbs were all drafted before us. Ramsey, Apple, Hargreaves, and finally Jackson went to cinci 1 pick before us.
3. I’m 99% sure they wanted Jackson the III. It was no secret we had major interest. We ended up with Burns.
Things I took from our pick of Burns:
1. We are not aggressive enough to move up for who we really want especially when they’re within fingertips length away. We knew the Bengals were really interested as well. Flashbacks of Revis draft.
2. Burns might have been the bpa at a position of need but they did a poor job of determining the opportunity cost of picking a Player that has shown 1st rd talent and polish at their position vs. the next best player available at a position of need. Burns showed some promise but even his biggest fan would say he was very raw in comparison to Jackson. I think it took a lot of people by surprise. We liked him, but in the first?
3. We may have been too enamoured with sparq scores and young age vs. talent and development that showed on tape. We were too bullish in our coach’s ability to further develop rawish prospects.
4. As some others have mentioned, We were too quick to rush up to the podium. It’s not a beneficial strategy. In a perfect world we would have re-evaluated after the shock of Jackson being drafted, and fielded offers to trade back. We may just go down the list on our board, but I can’t see any consequence from evaluating our options as the draft rolls out in real time. We passed on Myles Jack, a top 5 player who even with some medical questions at the very least should have been in consideration.
5. It’s the product of always picking at the bottom of the first. It’s the cost of being successful, a true double edged sword.
That whole draft was weird and we reached in the most important rounds imo(1. Burns, 2. Davis). Hindsight is 20/20 but OLB was definitely a need (Harrison was still really old at that point), safety was arguably a need and DT as well.
As I said my real issue is that we didn’t stop and reevaluate. As easily as the Steelers rolled the dice picking a player like Burns in the first, they could have rolled the dice by trading back, acquiring more picks and logically drafted a player that is graded out as a round two talent (Burns) in the actual 2nd rd.
Some players that we passed on Myles Jack,McKenzie Alexander, Ashawn Robinson, Jarron Reed, Suva Cravens, Vonn Bell, Deion Jones.
I hope the Steelers get with the times and start drafting aggressively. Go up (within reason) and grab who you really want. With comp picks now able to be traded there’s no reason we shouldn’t play the game everyone else is playing.
If we would have moved up to be sure that we get CB Jackson instead of CB Burns then we don't have the 3rd round pick that we used to draft DT Javon Hargrave or we don't have a 2nd to draft S Sean Davis. Is having Jackson better than having Burns AND Hargrave or having Burns AND Davis?
And, if we would have moved up to get Jackson we would have lost him for the season when he got injured and couldn't play. I know you think the team should make moves to get the guy they want but here's the thing, they do make moves to get the guy they really want but not every guy is worth it. I'm sure the team likes RB Saquon Barkley but getting him takes all of our draft picks this year and next year. Saquon is not worth that much.
The team is not too quick to rush up to the podium. They are going to draft their board. They are not going to start making calls with only 10 minutes to go, those late calls tell the other teams GM that you want to move out so the other team will try to get a better deal from you.
Your standards are impossible. No team always makes hindsight perfect drafts.
When was the last time we moved up in the first to grab the player we wanted? Polamalu? That worked out well actually.
Moving up isn’t exclusive to just the first rd either.
You’re comparing trading our whole draft and grabbing Barkley, a possible number 1 pick, with going up 2 to 3 spots at the bottom of the 1st for Jackson. Apples to oranges. Look above I said trading up within reason. And it most certainly would not have cost us our 2nd rounder. Maybe not even our third. 2 4ths who we used on Hawkins and Dobbs?
Back in the day, we didn’t have to move up, because players that worked in our style of 3-4 defense dropped to us. The game has evolved with sub packages being used 70% of the time; it’s much more of an even playing field.
After Jackson was picked, if there was ever a draft to trade back in it was that one. Jackson in one year is better than Burns at this point. Sure there’s a cost of moving up but that’s not exclusive to the Steelers.
No big deal, I just didn’t care for the 1st two rounds of the draft. I don’t like how they rush up to the board. Even if Burns was still our pick, whether we take 5 minutes or the whole 10, the only absolute by rushing up is we miss seeing if anything else develops. I’m not sure how wishing the Steelers moved up or down a little more frequently, or waited longer (my standards) could be considered impossible.
Would I have liked Jackson and Davis or Hargreaves over Burns and Davis or Hargreaves? Yes, but trying to make that decision knowing our draft could have looked different due to trading up is as pointless as footnoting Jackson would still have had a season ending injury
Would I have liked more picks and the possibility of our draft rolling out the way it did? Yes
Would I like Myles Jack and Davis or Hargreaves over The way it rolled out? Yes
Do I believe teams complete trades (whether new or negotiating old offers on the table) in 10 minutes? Yes.
This is all hypothetical, and talking about things in hindsight is what 90% of this board is all about. This is all my opinion and none of my comments are meant to cause a fight or disrespect your views.
We may be in a similar situation this year. Assuming Evans, Edmunds, Smith are gone, If LVE drops within two picks of us 1) would you rather trade up to get him, 2) draft Malik Jefferson (the bpa at a position of need regardless of not being a first rd talent), or 3) try to trade back, get more picks, and possibly draft Jefferson at the bottom of the 1st or top of the 2nd?
You could also draft someone else.
If we traded back and our first pick in the 2nd round was Ronnie Harrison I wouldn't be mad at it.
I’ve always hated the idea of trading back. We have an overall very good record with our first round picks. It’s why we’ve went from one championship caliber team retiring into a team that has the capability of being a championship team without having a losing record in the “rebuild years”. Everyone is enamored with getting MOAR PICKS, but you still have to draft the right guys.
Picking players “where they are supposed to go” is a weird notion because the answer to that question is different for every team. Teams don’t listen to the “draft experts”. They evaluate their guys and slot them where they think they should go... not where Mike Mayock thinks they should go. Plus moving back and waiting to select a guy you like 10 slots later because “that’s where he should go” makes it possible for a team to take him in front of you. Now you don’t get the guy you want and you have a worse draft pick. It’s bad business. Guys that do that kind of stuff don’t have GM jobs for longs
So your goal is for us to move up every draft? That's it. You just want to "move up" to get better value, to spend two or three picks and get one guy.
The draft is too much of a roll of the dice for that. Getting two players is better than getting one.
Jackson has not been better than Burns. Jackson missed the entire first season with an injury. Last season Jackson had 1 interception, 13 PBU, 1 sack, and 19 tackles. Burns had 1 interception, 13 PBU, and 47 tackles last season and in 2016 Burns had 3 interceptions, 13 PBU, and 51 tackles. Burns is the better player.
Your pre-draft value is not the real value of a player. It's a best guess. The real value of a player is determined later.
I didn't care for the Burns pick either but that's the way it goes. We don't always get some guy who mysteriously falls 15 spots right into our lap. That's what makes it great. The NFL is not designed for the Steelers to win everything but we still win, maybe not every draft and maybe not every game, because that's impossible, but with the same rules as 31 other teams we still win more than they do.
Would I trade up to get ILB Leighton Vander Esch? No, he's not worth it, and I wouldn't draft Malik Jefferson. If the guy isn't sure he wants to play football there is no way I would draft him.
I don't really think anyone is worth trading up this draft. I always like to trade down in the 1st. To me, ILB Evans, ILB Esch, are the same as ILB Avery and ILB Burks. I always want the extra one or two picks that we could get if we move down in the 1st. I would move down, get an extra 2nd or 3rd and take ILB Avery.
I certainly never said moving up in every draft, but in certain situations there’s definitely merit to do so. Same as there is merit to move back.
Would I like them to be more aggressive or willing to drop back?
By moving back, you can acquire more picks and use them to move up in other rounds for players you like as well.
Jackson most certainly is a better cb. Burns stats may look better but it does not reflect the fact that cinci didn’t start Williams at the beginning of the season (didn’t have to) and Burns inflated his stats while being picked on constantly.
Even with the cb depth cinci has, Jackson performed amazingly and consistently covered other teams number ones at the end of the year with great success...including AB and allowed 0 catches out of 8 targets in both games. AB got all his catches off of other corners.
He was ranked between AJ Bouye and Marshawn Lattimore in terms of passer ratings when targeted, allowing only 34.9% to be caught.
He is the number one cb in cinci and the city believes they found a shut down corner.
I’m not saying they will always draft well, no argument from me there, I’m simply stating I’d like them to be more aggressive in grabbing guys they have a lot of conviction for (in any round within reason) or dropping back in situations like the one in the 2016 draft.
What do people think it would take to trade up to late teens early 20's?? maybe something 16-22??
I am from MD and all I hear about is Baltimore thinking of trading back to obtain more picks and still be able to get their guy they want...
So what if we sent
Pitt 1st rd pick 2018 (28) our First next year (2019)
Pitt 3rd rd pick (92)
Balt 1st rd (16)
Balt 4th rd (pick 118)
Then with the 1st rd pick we bring in one of the three (if available)
Minkah Fitzpatrick (if he's there)
I know we've made some minor draft day trades with Cleveland, but I don't see Baltimore as a legitimate 1st round trading partner.
I would have to agree with NB, same conference trading partners are rare in the first round.
Plus I think Evans may be available at 28 but I don't think Edmunds will. Fitz is a long shot imo to be there. It would have to be a player they really love and possibly slid down, two #1s is pricey though. If Edmunds was there, I would be good with that.
That's how I saw it too. Burns was a 2nd round talent and Davis was at best a 3rd round talent (and maybe even a 4th).
Fitzpatrick is the only one of those three I'd trade up for.
I agree with most of what you are saying. As much as it sucked for Jackson III to be drafted ahead of us, it was just as awesome that Decastro somehow fell to us. These things balance out.
However, I think Jackson III is a MUCH better player right now than Artie ever will be.
Any thoughts about if the Giants take Barkley they will be looking to get back into the bottom of the 1st? I would love this gain a few picks especially if LVE and Evans are gone. I am feeling tonight is going to be a trade fest.....
And im still wondering
I don't think they had a possible trade, or if they did it wasn't a value. Guice and Jackson were there. Cleveland didn't get it's rb in the first, so they were a team to trade up, as were a bunch of others. Jackson was an obvious first round pick, but he didn't go until #32, and then for a next years second. NY needs o-line help, but they didn't trade up. etc.
And the fact that the Steelers took almost 8 minutes to make their pick, which means 7 min and 30 secs longer than usual, means they had to be considering something.
Your last point is quite correct. I was thinking the same thing. We never take that long. I think we were working on a trade down. Didnt' work. So they took their guy.
This wise post needs quoting.
Thank you sir. I like the draft as much as anyone, but the analytics of it are insane haha I wish fewer people got dragged into the numbers game when it comes to player assessment.
Well I heard that they were looking to move up though to grab Evans (LB) from Bama but that didn't happen..