Tomlin: Win at all costs

It's about time he spoke out..Now Tomlin can say that this is his team and not Cowhers team.Now he has to go out and win the big one with this new and younger team.

 

I know this isn't popular, but I'm not sold on Tomlin 100% yet.

I have been patient and I am letting his record and accomplishments speak for themselves. I am evaluating our performances using neutral opinions as best I can.

This is what I think:

1. In his five seasons, his regular season records have twice "underachieved" and thrice "overachieved". Based on Las Vegas odds (which I consider very neutral), both his 10-6 season in 2007 and his 9-7 season in 2009 "underachieved". Each 12-4 season "overachieved". In total over his 5 seasons, Tomlin is 55-25. Odds from Vegas says we should be 53-27. So Tomlin is 2 games over projections. He does deserve a lot of credit for maintaining this type of betting credibility with Vegas. The projected over/under win totals for each season of his tenure have been around 9.5 or higher. That's very good.

2. He has made the playoffs in 4 of his 5 seasons (only missing in 2009). Two of those playoffs runs have been very successful. Two of those playoff runs have been very disappointing, losing both when we were favorites. In fact, Tomlin has never won a playoff game as an underdog. I have said this before, but Tomlin's greatest negative right now is the fact he has lost to TWO coach/quarterback combinations in the playoffs that are very poor: Del Rio/Gerrard (at home) and Fox/Tebow (away). Most "great" coaches never lose to that type of inferiority. Bill Cowher only lost once to that poor a coach/quarterback combo (Ross/Humphries in 1994) in his 15 years as coach of the Steelers. You can make all the excuses you want (injuries, refs, etc.) but the history books show Tomlin/Roethlisberger losing to those combinations and that doesn't happen often when you have that perceived superiority.

3. So far, we are still very early in evaluating Tomlin's ability to hire assistant coaches. The changes to date since his hire (not the staff he was given by the Steelers front office in 2007) have been good. He changed the offensive line coach and special teams coaches after 2009. And he finally changes offensive coordinators after 2011. The first two have been successful (in my opinion). Time will tell is Todd Haley is successful as well. If anything, the negative with these changes are he is too slow to make them. Many fans were clammering for changes to these staff positions a year or two earlier than they were made.

4. I am still very curious how Tomlin handles the retirement of Dick Lebeau. Does he promote from within? Does he use it as an opportunity to change the defense a bit? I never would have guessed in 2007 that Lebeau would still be the defensive coordinator five years later but here he is.

All-in-all, Tomlin has navigated the Steelers to continued success, but I don't think we have overachieved either. He has had the benefit of Ben Roethlisberger in arguably his best seasons (years 4 through 8) and he has maintained our defensive excellence (particularly when Polamalu is healthy) in Lebeau's season. Tomlin hasn't "screwed things up" in other words and he has the respect of the players for sure. Maybe that's a success because many other coaches might have run the ship aground, I don't know.

I think Tomlin is a very good coach, but I'm not really of the opinion he has been "elite" either. To much of his tenure seems status quo to me and the playoff losses really bother me. I know both of those teams probably didn't have a chance to go much further in the playoffs, but I HATE losing to inferior talent/teams. And I HATE losing as an underdog. I have no problem with the Super Bowl loss because of that.

Lastly, it's hard not to mention the Super Bowl victory. That's really the cherry on his resume that will never go away. And many fans would except 4 underachieving season and just one championship if they had the choice and still call the run "successful". It's hard to argue with that thinking because championships are so elusive and hard to achieve. So many things have to go right.

Tomlin certainly is here to stay for a long time. He has been very good his first 5 seasons. And certainly good enough to earn another 5 seasons and probably more. I am excited about the changes to the offense and maybe getting rid of Bruce Arians will usher in a new era of success.

 

im trying to figure out #1.. vegas odds... i understand the concept.. if you are the favorite 53 times and win 55 thats good ... if you are supposed to lose 27 times and only lose 25 times that too is good and logical since if you win 2 more that means you lose 2 less.. ok so i get that and yes u are winning about 4% more then VEGAS EXPECTS... but i think you are missing a BIGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG point here.. IFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF tomlin wasnt a good coach.... a lots better then average and has better then average players he wouldnt be expected to win 55 and lose 25 right? sooooooooooooooo those odds of winning 55 of 80 games tells that vegas thinks hes a damn good coach and we have a dam good team that shouldddddddddddddd and doessssssssssss win about 67% of the time... so to me even iffffffffff vegas said they are to win 55 and he only won 53 and lost 27... turn the numbers around ... that he was -2 to vegas expectations... and he goes 53 / 27 does that make him a "bad coach" hes still winning 66% of the time .. but what you are saying that would make him under vegas expectations and NOT a good coach while still winning 66% of his games.. and remember vegas sets the odds by how much money they think willl be bet on each team .. thats why the odds change... vegas doesnt care who wins 90% of the time... they strive to have 50% of the money bet on each team.. that way they cant lose.. so vegas odds have nothign to do with which is the best team but how they think the money will be bet to spread it 50/50 .. so to me item #1 has nothing do do with tomlin being a good or bad coach.... said differently if vegas had the steelers as favorites in all 80 gmaes and they only win 78 and lose 2.. does that make him a bad coach for building a team they think shoud be unbeatable and they lose 3% of the time? just to me that makes no sense at all..
HINES

 

Who gives a **** about vegas h has a winning record a sb ring and a trip to another.

 

I clearly state Tomlin deserves credit for MAINTAINING the Steelers as a high-caliber team. But that is also the same as "status quo", right?

As long as the Steelers have Ben Roethlisberger and our defensive personnel, I would think we would be favored in about 66% of our games. Is that because of Tomlin? How much credit does he get for having a top-5 or top-8 quarterback (depending on how you look at it)? Tomlin did not build this team from scratch. He did not start with a consistent 6-10 team and turn it into a 66% winning team. He started with a team that won 34 of their previous 48 regular season games (70.8%) and was in an AFC Championship game three years prior to his arrival and won a Super Bowl two years prior to his arrival.

Every year, teams are perceived as being strong or weak based on personnel, talent, coaching staff and schedule. Every year, teams have a certain "expectation" level. Those expectations change based on performances to date (both by your team and the teams you face). Those expectations change due to injuries. This is all reflected accurately in point spreads for games (and "odds" betting).

All I'm saying is we have met expectations. We have not EXCEEDED expectations during the regular season.

I also clearly acknowledge the Super Bowl victory as a huge feather in Tomlin's cap. That's the accomplishment that puts him over the top because they are so rare and hard to get. They take a lot of luck and fortune in my opinion unless you are a juggernaut of a team, which I don't think we ever have been.

But if I am objective, the Super Bowl victory doesn't just wipe clean other underachieving performances, should it?

How can you justify losses in the playoffs at home (favored by 3 1/2 points) to Gerrard/Del Rio and then favored by 6 1/2 at Denver for Fox/Tebow? Those losses are as disappointing and "underachieved" just as much as the run to the Super Bowl "overachieved". At least in my opinion.

 

Yeah, I can't use Vegas as a barometer for sound football opinions. My brother tries using fantasy stuff with player evaluation all the time and it drives me nuts. Vegas works for betting with spreads and fantasy only works for fantasy. Ben and Ward are not good players in my brothers stoopid world.

I understand that Tomlin had a rock solid foundation to start with and had a great defense with Lebeau at the helm. That makes things a heck of a lot easier for a coach to go to one of the better franchises. NOooo DOUBT! Props to Cower for sure. I think the Ronney's have more to do with Tomlin AND Cowers success than it just being passed from HC to HC. This is one of the most stable working environments in sports. Cower might have not done so well in Miami, San Diego, N. Carolina or Dallas. I think a fair part of the reason he hasn't gone back to coaching. Both coaches most likely wouldn't be as revered if not employed by the Rooney's. IMHO...

I don't think that inferior coaching/QB scenario is much more than coincidence. I'd need some more science to win me over. It's just two games and there are so many other factors. The other teams try real hard to win also. Sometimes it's just that or that with health and luck is sometimes a factor. Never mind those damn refs!!! (kidding)

Ben's best years? Well, you'd think that was the case with him, but the meat head can't seem to be 100% focused on football and what's best for the team despite his support and contract money. He's not the most cerebral QB and seems to revel in that realm so that is what it is (I'm not a big film room guy). Plus, Cower built and awesome O-line that Ben benefitted from early and Tomlin has been working with a crap line and an arrogant QB. Tomlin shares some of those sacks with Ben reputation wise. At this point I'd be more inclined to take a young, healthy, wet behind the ears athletic Ben vs. the experienced big headed, creaky, and stuck in his ways vet who won't think of the team first before self. He has 2 years to (hopefully raying: ) make me eat those words if he comes around soon.

You forgot to mention Lake as a coaching hire under Tomlin. I think that pans out to be brilliant. Cower doesn't get credit for his former player either.

 

i wonder how belicheat feels about this? talk of being favored and not meeting expectations. is he a better coach? going undefeated only to lose the big one. not only once but then again losing to that team twice in the big one. he's got arguably the best qb in the league. there are so many variables to each game. matchups, division stregnths, schedules,injuries,freeagency,coaching matchups, balls with points on both ends. it's all hard to lump on just the head coach. i'll take our consistancy any day over a game here or a game there. playoffs or not. he more often then not meets expectations that the owner wants. when you hear teams in our division wanting to be more like us, that alone is a vote of confidence in his ability. that alone make him know he's doing something right. whether vegas agrees or not. teams lose games for numerous reasons. one bounce of the pointed ball takes alot of things out of the coaches hands.

 

:-D

 

I think Frank Reich/Marv Levi would qualify as inferior, but your point remins valid.

 

That's true. When I did my research, I assumed that was Kelly/Levy which was incorrect.

In that game, the Steelers were big underdogs. That was Cowher's first season (1992). We were in the playoffs for the first time since 1989. And that was the heart of the Buffalo Bills "dynasty" run (having two previous super bowl appearances). The game was in Buffalo.

A little different in my opinion that Tomlin/Roethlisberger losing their first playoff appearance together at home versus Jacksonville (Del Rio/Gerrard) and favored by 3 1/2 points.

 

I don't think anyone will be satisfied and will always have something to complain about about OUR team. I will take what we consistency bring to the table every year over any team in the league.

 

I didn't read one word of this because I couldn't take my eyes off of your avatar.

Very nice.

 

Why do you say status quo like its a bad thing? Because in this circumstance
Status quo seems like a good thing, they were greatly successful then
And they still are...........status quo

 

Coach T was handed the keys to a Ferarri, its pretty hard to mess that up,
I am in agreement with you Del,hate losing to inferior teams
IMO Coach T is not in the elite staus yet, good but not quite there.
Lets hope the new OC makes for a much better Steeler football team and the
maturing and refinement of #7, Please Haley get the most you can out of #7.

 

I'm not in total agreement with #2. Yes - he made the playoffs 4 of 5 seasons, but I would say that 2 were very successful, 1 was disappointing and 1 was a wash. I cannot hang this past season's disappointment on Tomlin losing to "inferior" coaches. I am honestly glad that they lost to the Broncos, because the game with the Patriots probably would have been embarrassing, and it would not have had anything to do with the inferiority/superiority of the coaches. In fact, a win against the Broncos may have led to even more injuries in the game against the Patriots. In hindsight - that game was a blessing in disguise. Not only did it save Ben and other wounded Steelers from potentially further injuring themselves, it has served as a spark for the 2012-2013 Steelers. The Steelers are using the early exit from the playoffs to propel them into this year. That HAS to be a good thing, not only for us fans and the upcoming season, but also for the rookies who are coming in and experiencing a team that has that something extra that can lead to success. I predict that Tomlin will galvanize this energy and lead them to an over-achieving season that should be fun to watch and end with a strong team throughout the playoffs. I never predict a Super Bowl victory, because anything can happen once the playoffs begin, but I will predict that we will be much more positive going into the postseason next year than we were last year.

 

My opinion of Tomlin's performance to date doesn't mean I don't agree with you on the prediction for 2012.

I too am predicting a good season and I think this roster is more set up for a deeper run in the playoffs and is more capable of staying healthy than in years past.