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The irresponsibility of our media.

Discussion in 'The Watercooler' started by Stone, Mar 18, 2020.

  1. Stone

    Stone Well-Known Member

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    But Ray, you are extrapolating things that aren't real. First off, there were 80,000 deaths in the winter of 2017-2018 and there are countless sources stating that including the CDC.
    https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/26/health/flu-deaths-2017--2018-cdc-bn/index.html

    Second, I used linear numbers which were extremely exaggerated for an example because we don't know how they are going to grow and conclude.

    Third, as was pointed out in the link I provided, the flu mortality rate in the winter of 2017-2018 was above 10% for four consecutive weeks.

    Fourth, the growth has not been exponential. Again, "exponential" is a term the media threw out and people latched on to it. Exponential is a very complicated formula which is based on unchecked and uncontrolled growth indefinitely, and this will not grow indefinitely. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_growth
     
    • Informative Informative x 1
  2. Stone

    Stone Well-Known Member

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    Below are the numbers I started tracking using the CDC daily numbers. Although it is a very small sample, you can see that the US numbers as related to mortality rate are dropping, exponential growth numbers don't drop. You can also see that these numbers don't come anywhere near the 10% mortality rate that the flu had for four consecutive weeks in the winter of 2017-2018.

    upload_2020-3-23_8-10-56.png
     
    • Informative Informative x 1
  3. Stone

    Stone Well-Known Member

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    It would be good for all if you would drop the mic, and break it.:cool:
     
  4. santeesteel

    santeesteel

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    Now they say the Mercy is going to L.A.
     
  5. Stone

    Stone Well-Known Member

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    Well, I'm just glad there is another means of help. I don't know why they don't bring it to Ohio!
     
  6. santeesteel

    santeesteel

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    That's a bit far for the Mercy. Maybe petition the WH to get the Comfort. It's going to NY, it's closer!
     
  7. MojaveDesertPghFan

    MojaveDesertPghFan

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    Help is on its way........................ upload_2020-3-23_9-58-35.jpeg :cool:
     
  8. MojaveDesertPghFan

    MojaveDesertPghFan

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    I've heard crawling through a sanitary sewer pipe headfirst on your belly is no more dangerous than walking down the sidewalk in LA, SF or Seattle. :rolleyes:
     
    • Like Like x 1
  9. Stone

    Stone Well-Known Member

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    Thank God!
     
  10. santeesteel

    santeesteel

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    Worked for Andy Dufresne!
     
    • Hilarious Hilarious x 2
  11. thesteeldeal

    thesteeldeal Well-Known Member

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    upload_2020-3-23_14-11-55.jpeg I prefer craft that can make the Kessel Run in less than 12 parsecs.....
     
    • Very Optimistic Very Optimistic x 1
  12. Ray D

    Ray D Staff Member Mod Team

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    Oh, FFS. Exponential growth isn't some term that your imaginary boogeyman made up! It's the central concept of how contagions spread used by infectious disease experts for DECADES. And as I had already stated, things can and will mitigate it. Never once has anyone implied unchecked growth. But that's the curve you start with, then begin adding in the other factors (population density, herd immunity, how easily transmitted the virus is, how contagious someone is before they know they're infected, etc). Hence, why they're stressing social isolating to flatten the curve. Also why the flu never even infects half the population most years as I already pointed out. But your linear example is just flat wrong. It's not how viruses spread at all. It doesn't matter what number you start with, it'll never be linear. It climbs exponentially until something checks it (isolation, immunity, saturation), then levels off and declines. We are nowhere even close to its peak yet. The aim is to reduce the peak numbers so as to avoid a spike. And if successful, that will also lower the total infected over the next year.

    And this cannot be stressed enough: WE CANNOT AND ARE NOT TESTING EVERYONE YET!!! So those numbers are artificially lower than the true number. Now, some spikes in numbers will undoubtedly be more indicative of actual testing than infection spread. But we'll be into this for a few months before we have a true picture.

    The point is, we're still at the beginning of the curve. And we don't even have an accurate number on infected yet. But we're already third in the world for infections only going by actually tested people in just a few weeks. USA! USA! USA! :lolol:

    And there you go again using short term data to try to prove something long term. 10% for 4 weeks in one country?! Oh my lord! The effective death rate that year was still within normal expected percentages. 4 weeks means nothing. Further, infectious disease experts weren't alarmed because they understand statistical outliers. Those numbers were for an isolated population (not worldwide) in a short span of time. If Mason Rudolph threw for 500 yards and 6 TDs in one game last year, his season as a whole would still have sucked. ;)

    Covid-19's death rate has been remarkably stable worldwide. See the difference? Yes, it WILL go down a bit before this is all over. That's expected. But it'll still be significantly higher than any flu since 1918 unless an effective treatment is found and I cannot stress this enough: widely available.

    (I've read both numbers, but my last post conceded your number of 80K just for argument's sake. It's still a normal percentage. ;))

    upload_2020-3-23_15-55-51.png

    See that curve? THAT is exponential. IDK what you're looking at.
     
    Last edited: Mar 23, 2020
  13. steel machine

    steel machine Well-Known Member

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    Well one thing is for sure, 8 billion on the planet right now will be dead 100 years from now and in the grand scheme of things 100 years ain't ****. Feel better!!
     
  14. Stone

    Stone Well-Known Member

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    You keep sighting that my "linear" example is all wrong, and I keep telling you it was never meant to represent the growth rate of Coronavirus but to show that a ****ton of people can die before we get to the numbers of the in 2017-2018 where nobody lost their job, nobody committed suicide, no businesses were closed, no presidents were re-elected or run out of office........just that 80,000 people died and nothing was said.

    I guess we will see. and I'm curios what will the response be if it ends up that all the hysteria was unwarranted? I'm sure the media will step up, along with certain politicians, and take credit for how the swift action shut it down before it could decimate us. But it already has.............

    Well.....at least we can agree that MR sucked, but I sure wish he would have had that 500 yard/6 TD game you mentioned.
     
  15. Blast Furnace

    Blast Furnace Staff Member Mod Team

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    We’ll surpass those numbers if we bury our head in the sand and pretend this is nothing to worry about. I don’t think the media is responsible for Dr’s in Italy and Spain making decisions to kick patients over 65 years old off of ventilators to use them on younger people. This is a new virus that health systems aren’t equipped to handle. It’s not just about covid patients. Don’t know why people aren’t grasping this.

    Also, calling the whole thing off and saying eff it, lets go back to work, lift all restrictions and let the chips fall where they may isn’t going to work either. Too many people will still be afraid to resume life as normal, the economy and stock market will still suffer. You’ll just have a much longer lasting pandemic along with the crashed economy.
     
  16. Ray D

    Ray D Staff Member Mod Team

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    Oh, trust me, no one will be more relieved and happier to have overreacted than I if this turns out to be no worse than a flu year.

    And it still could. But if we whistle past the graveyard, it can get very bad in a hurry.
     
  17. strummerfan

    strummerfan Well-Known Member

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    so much for flattening the curve.
     
  18. Stone

    Stone Well-Known Member

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    It's not new. It's been around for a long time. If you don't believe me go look at your can of Lysol or some other dis-infectant you've had in your home form months, you will see the coronavirus as one of the things it kills.....it's basically a strain of the common cold. And if you don't believe that, ask your doctor.

    https://web.stanford.edu/group/virus/corona/colds.html

    People can argue all day long but here is the real question: If it turns out that this is no more deadly than the flu, or even twice as deadly as the flu, why did we destroy so many lives and the country's economy over something that have dealt with routinely in the past?

    upload_2020-3-24_7-38-3.png
     
    Last edited: Mar 24, 2020
  19. Stone

    Stone Well-Known Member

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    And if that happens, I will sadly admit that I was wrong....dead wrong.
     
  20. TerribleTowelFlying

    TerribleTowelFlying Staff Member Site Admin Mod Team

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    It is new. This Coronavirus outbreak, Covid-19, is unknown to man prior to the end of last year. I don't think anyone here believes "Coronavirus" in general is new to man. :)

    The Coronavirus you're pointing to on your Lysol bottle is specifically SARS Coronavirus.
     
    • Winner Winner x 3
    • Agree Agree x 1
  21. strummerfan

    strummerfan Well-Known Member

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    you are a ****ing idiot. Seriously go die in a fire
     
    • Against The Rules Against The Rules x 2
  22. santeesteel

    santeesteel

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    Thread killer!
     
  23. thesteeldeal

    thesteeldeal Well-Known Member

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    Damn and I was about to order a round of Lysol shots for everyone....
     
    • Hilarious Hilarious x 1
  24. Stone

    Stone Well-Known Member

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    Anyone is entitled to their opinion and right now, opinion is rampant just like the fear of Coronavirus. Some people like to let the government and others tell them what to think and how to act, and they don't mind paying through the nose to let others tell them what to think and do. That doesn't give you the right to pass judgement on those who are still able to think, see, and act on their own.

    I understand that Coronavirus is a "new strain" of an old virus and I understand that it's serious. It's just not worth the decimation that is going on right now. When SARS came out we didn't shut the country down, when EBOLA came out we didn't shut the country down. "This" strain of the Coronavirus has been around for many months, we are just now losing our minds because the media is telling us to......some of us.

    If it turns out that the Coronavirus kills a comparable number of people to the flu a couple years ago, or even twice the number killed a couple years ago, what will we do about the countless lost businesses, the incredible unemployment rate, the countless suicides, and all the other things that are then proven to have been an over-reaction caused by media sensationalism? I understand that people like you @strummerfan don't care about this because the government will always take care of you but quit being so selfish and try using your brain.
     
  25. Stone

    Stone Well-Known Member

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    When all of this is said and done, I am going to my local watering hole and inventing a shot called "Lysol" just for you!:smiley1:
     
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