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The irresponsibility of our media.

Discussion in 'The Watercooler' started by Stone, Mar 18, 2020.

  1. Stone

    Stone Well-Known Member

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    It's getting crazy! My son is VP for a medical supply company and he told me yesterday that they are finding that alcohol doesn't kill the virus unless it is almost pure alcohol. Just yesterday, he negotiated a contract with a supplier to produce several thousand gallons of hand sanitizer but now can't find anyone to provide the containers so they can get it out to the public.

    @santeesteel I love the idea of making your own!

    I have a stupid question....well, I have a lot of them but...... They are saying that washing your hands does not kill the virus, just washes it away. So if virtually nothing is killing it, are our sewage systems going to be polluted with it?
     
  2. Stone

    Stone Well-Known Member

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    I thank God every day that aside from the whining, protesting, pissing and moaning that you do, people like you can really only count for ONE VOTE!
     
    • Informative Informative x 1
  3. santeesteel

    santeesteel

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    Our governor just locked down CA. No one is laughing!
     
  4. Ray D

    Ray D Staff Member Mod Team

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    70% alcohol is actually more effective than 100%. This goes for all bacteria and viruses. Basically, higher concentration alcohol evaporates too quickly to actually kill things effectively. But 10% bleach is always even better than that for surfaces (just don't use it on your skin).

    Washing your hands can kill the viruses. The fatty/oily compounds in soap destroy a viruses enveloped outer layer. But even if it only washes away, viruses don't live forever outside a host. The biggest rip off is "anti-bacterial" soap. Completely unnecessary and no more effective than any other soap.
     
    • Informative Informative x 2
  5. Stone

    Stone Well-Known Member

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    Yours sounds like an educated comment....thanks! It just goes to show how infantile all of this is.
     
    Last edited: Mar 20, 2020
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  6. MojaveDesertPghFan

    MojaveDesertPghFan

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    But it's still volunteer. He said it won't be enforced by anyone other than "peer pressure" and everyone's "contract with society". What does this mean? Vigilante forces? Citizens applying physical force to carry out the Gov's wishful thinking? So it's not really a "lock down" per se' which would probably require buy in by local police and/or National Guard patrols. Nothing even close to that was hinted at. Therefore everyone is still free to do as they choose - some will abide, others won't. If I was running a street business that still had a demand and was my livelihood, I would keep it open and use caution and common sense.

    All this by the Gov and yet he and the judiciary in Cali still allow the filth to line the sidewalks of major cities and have no problem with unfettered entry of anyone from the southern border regardless of their point of origin. Why should anyone listen to a politician like this trying to impose his will on the masses while continuing to turn a blind eye to other potentially more damaging policies.
     
  7. Stone

    Stone Well-Known Member

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    Two questions for you my friend..... Is the governor known to the state of California to be logical? I mean most things known to the state of California are known ONLY to the state of California:cool:

    And.....How are the pretty people taking this? Here in Ohio they shut down all barber shops and beauty salons, women are already losing their minds that their grey hair will show.....even though they can't go anywhere:huh:
     
  8. santeesteel

    santeesteel

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    He also said that he hopes he doesn't have to rely on law enforcement...….
     
  9. santeesteel

    santeesteel

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    Really, only to those in San Francisco.
     
  10. Stone

    Stone Well-Known Member

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    He also asked the resident to send the one and only navy hospital ship to California.
     
  11. santeesteel

    santeesteel

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    There are actually 2 hospital ships. One is here in San Diego. I believe it is on it's way to the bay area now.
     
  12. Stone

    Stone Well-Known Member

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    Ahhh....I heard there was one outside Seattle?
     
  13. santeesteel

    santeesteel

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    That would be the Mercy. I thought they were going to SF but, apparently, it's Seattle.
     
  14. MojaveDesertPghFan

    MojaveDesertPghFan

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    Then the questions remains - who will he send out - the same law enforcement that idly stood by while Antifa anarchists rioted and assaulted people and destroyed private property in DT Berkeley? I don't see how this is going to end pretty, especially the longer it lingers on. I can see perhaps the weather might keep many indoors in the midwest and northeast but out here in the fairyland of sun and fun and fruits and nuts I sense confrontations brewing. One silver lining though, Gov did declare that pot shops are essential businesses that need to stay open and thus, might help tamp down a riotous atmosphere.
     
  15. MojaveDesertPghFan

    MojaveDesertPghFan

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    1. I'll have to listen to the Supertramp song again to see if it offers any clues.
    2. I'm thinking the prettier the person, the more of a chance that the vendors come to them in their gated guarded mansions away from the public eye. This will most likely continue discretely with the right tip jar contributions.
     
  16. santeesteel

    santeesteel

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    Not in the bay area! They're always looking for a chance to demonstrate/riot. Too bad for the rest of us that all of CA gets judged by what the lunatics in the west bay area and in Hollywood do!
     
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  17. strummerfan

    strummerfan Well-Known Member

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    I can’t decide which is funnier. The fact that you of all people is accusing someone else of whining, pissing, andmoaning. Or that it took you so long to come up with such bs.
     
  18. Stone

    Stone Well-Known Member

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    A little perspective:

    If the media would tell us that 49,000,000 people in the US contracted the flu in the winter of 2017-2018, and 80,000 died that year in the US alone that would help us to understand at higher level.....but it wouldn't help ratings.



    If they would tell us that during the winter of 2017-2018 the mortality rate of the flu ran above 10% for four consecutive weeks, it would put the projected 1.5% - 3% mortality rate for Coronavirus in perspective....but it wouldn't help ratings.



    www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu-season-2017-2018.htm



    Coronavirus "may" approach or even exceed the numbers of the flu epidemic of 2017-2018 and it may not; the current growth rate indicates it will not come close.....but telling us that doesn't help ratings.



    As of this minute there are 27,111 cases in the US which is up 7268 in the last 24 hours, let's say the numbers grow to 50,000 new cases every day for the next 60 days....we would then be at 3,027,111 cases in two months.....the flu had 49,000,000 cases two winters ago.



    As of this minute, there are 340 deaths in the US which is up 64 in the last 24 hours, let's say the number grows to 1000 new deaths every day for the next 60 days.....we would be at 60,340 deaths in two months.......the flu killed 80,000 people just two winters ago.
     
  19. santeesteel

    santeesteel

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    "Any-twosome Newsom" is encouraging people to narc on your neighbor by this "lockdown". Story in the paper this morning about calls police got yesterday complaining about people in a park not sitting 6 feet apart. A non-essential store they thought was open but, was just employees taking inventory...…… more to come!
     
    • Informative Informative x 1
  20. strummerfan

    strummerfan Well-Known Member

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    you need to learn the difference between linear and exponential. You’re also ignoring the lack of testing.

    FYI yesterday New York reported 8000 cases. Today that number is 15,000.
     
    Last edited: Mar 22, 2020
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  21. Stone

    Stone Well-Known Member

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    You need to learn to think for yourself instead of letting sensationalists do it for you:smiley1:
     
  22. Ray D

    Ray D Staff Member Mod Team

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    I really don't know where you get your numbers, or who is giving you these faulty comparisons.

    First of all, there were 61,000 flu related deaths in 2017-2018, not 80K. Still very high by most years standards. But let's start from real numbers. Actually, forget it. We'll use yours.

    But more importantly, your examples of the spread of this virus are WAY OFF. Exponential growth is how all viruses that are easily transmitted spread (like the flu, and like Covid-19). They don't rise by a certain number a day. That's linear. They DOUBLE every 3-5 days.

    Using your number of 27K (now higher already), we'll do a little math. Side note: actual infections currently are far higher than the known number. We cannot and are not testing everyone. For every known infected, bank on anywhere from 5 to as many as 50 people not known.

    Starting at 27,000 known as of yesterday, and going by a more conservative doubling every 5 days rather than the more usual 3: if left completely unchecked (like the flu usually is), in 110 days we're up to over 113 MILLION infected! Do the math. Stop focusing on low numbers at the beginning of the curve. (110 days = roughly 4 months, or the length of a winter. ;))

    Worst case scenario, if we had 100 million people infected, with even a 0.25% death rate, that's 250,000 deaths. If we keep it to that year's flu's infections, that's still over 120,000 deaths. And I'm being VERY generous lowering the death rate to 0.25%. If it stays closer to 1%, look out.

    Now, lots of factors can and will cut down that number: effective social distancing being most important. People who recover and are now immune cannot spread it any longer, etc.

    In a typical flu season, anywhere from 40-80 million people will be infected. The reason it doesn't ever go higher, and the exponential curve stops, is because it'll hit a saturation point where there just isn't enough people available to infect anymore so it can't double again. Couple that with people immune (prior exposure or vaccinated), or even partially immune from previous flus, and thankfully, the curve starts falling after the first 2 months. Eventually, the fire runs out of fuel, so to speak.

    But we have NO ONE with partial or full immunity yet. It's a novel virus which means the human species has never seen it before, therefore, we don't even have partial immunity (except for possibly anyone who survived SARS. But they are so few as to be statistically zero).

    We know the conservative death rate from Covid-19 is 1-2% from data from other countries with larger epidemics than we currently have. Other factors can cause it to go higher: older population (which we have - not as high as Italy, but still skews higher), poor overall health of the population (ours is mediocre at best), and most importantly, availability of quality health care. Italy's death rate is over 10% currently because they just can't treat everyone. Their health care system fell way behind the amount of infected. China ended up being around 1.2% because they were extremely effective in isolating people, so they could treat those who needed it. (assuming we can trust their word)

    Using your numbers, the flu that year had an actual death rate of only about 0.16%. That's actually GOOD by most flu standards. Covid-19 is going to be much, much higher. Probably not 1% after all is said and done. After all, diseases kill the most susceptible first. But certainly higher than an average flu due to HOW it's killing people. The flu doesn't kill the majority of people who die. It's secondary pneumonia that does. The flu weakens you, then other infections cause the pneumonia. Covid-19 CAUSES pneumonia itself. And a particularly nasty form of it at that. We haven't even seen secondary pneumonia, because the primary pneumonia is killing people quickly on its own.

    Granted, the vast majority of those infected will do just fine. But a much higher percentage of people require hospitalization and even intubation/ventilators than any flu we've seen in our lifetime. Our hospitals will be inundated. When that happens, people will die. Most who could have been saved if we had the resources.

    I know there's this tendency to immediately discount anything that conflicts with someone's world view. And certain elements of our society immediately dismissed this. Now they're digging in their heels rather than admit that maybe, just maybe they were wrong/misinformed. But here's the thing. When a new subject comes up, you don't look at what your political opposites are saying and then immediately entrench yourself in an opposite view point. That's lazy. You and I probably share 70-80% of a worldview philosophy. But I come from a medical / scientific background. Even if we're going a tad overboard here, I'd rather err on the side of caution. God willing, we'll learn this isn't nearly as contagious as the flu. But we can't take that chance now.

    Sadly, IF we effectively use social isolation, and IF we successfully slow it down, there will be some who will say, "SEE? This was nothing!" No. We made it smaller.

    This is serious. This needs immediate action. It's not too late to slow it down (we'll never stop it. We can't stop the flu either, and we have vaccines). Slowing it down NOW is critical. Waiting even a week is putting far too many people at risk and setting our health care system up to get swamped.

    Disclaimer:

    None of what I said justifies people hoarding or panicking. Yes, this is worrisome. But it is not the end of the world. It's not even going to end up on the scale of the Spanish Influenza of 1918.
     
    Last edited: Mar 22, 2020
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  23. strummerfan

    strummerfan Well-Known Member

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    I think now is when the kids would say mic drop
     
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  24. Ray D

    Ray D Staff Member Mod Team

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    Exponential.jpg
     
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  25. MojaveDesertPghFan

    MojaveDesertPghFan

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    "The most comprehendible thing about the universe is that it is incomprehensible." Albert Einstein

    It's great that passions are being stretched in attempt to verbalize individual thoughts, rationale and opinions, and not just of the mega topic du jour but of existence itself. No matter what lengths anyone seems to take to "lay it all out" and 'splain things, it really does no good. Admit it - we're all entrenched no matter how correct or silly any of our thoughts or opinions happen to be. I just don't happen to see much give or even an occasional: "You know, you have a valid point, I hadn't thought of that before." We're pretty much beyond that and heavily insulated against buying in or caving in mid-stream. We all arrived at this playing field with a certain animus. We know what we believe and what we want to believe. Even when we're asked not to be political, it's still going to flow through the same veins, can't be helped. Someone once said: "There is no such thing as an 'expert', it's merely the degree by which we conceal our sources". But in this day and age the real question is the veracity of those sources since facts are so often agenda driven.
     
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