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Steelers Draft Strategy Prediction

Discussion in 'The Bill Nunn Draft Room' started by Steel_Elvis, Apr 12, 2019.

  1. Steel_Elvis

    Steel_Elvis Staff Member Mod Team

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    After seeing the lists of visits, Pro days, interviews, etc, here’s how I see the team's draft strategy. This isn’t a mock draft, but rather a summary of what I think we’ll do. My “mock” falls out of this strategy. Note that this is not necessarily what I would do, but what I think we’re doing in my (admittedly) only semi-educated opinion.

    Round 1: I think we’d go with Bush or White here if available, but they won’t be. I also think we’re considering Murphy or Baker, but I think we’re thinking corner in the 2nd, not the first, and they’re doing diligence on Murphy and Baker in case one drops due to lack of elite speed. When I look at the visit list, the guys that stands out is Darnell Savage. He’s the only top safety on the visit list, and I am thinking he may be a guy that we’ve fallen in love with. Assuming Bush and White are gone, I think the pick at #20 (or lower with a trade down) is Darnell Savage. People will call it a reach because of where the draft “experts” on line have him slated, but his tape shows that he’s got legit 1st round talent.

    Round 2: I think we’ll take our favorite of the following corners: Murphy, Baker, Layne, Ya Sin. I think Justin Layne ends up being the guy here. If the corners are all gone, it means another good player or two of interest have probably fallen. In that case it would not surprise me to see Winovich as the pick, and a corner like Bunting a little bit later.

    Round 3: I think we grab an offensive skill position player with pick 3a. There are a number of WRs I think we would take here who are projected to go in the 2nd including Isabella and Harry. However, I think those guys will be gone and we go with Miles Sanders or Damien Harris. For 3b I think David Long Jr. is the target. It’s possible that we take Long with pick 3a if there are still a few offensive players that we like on the board at 3a.

    Round 4: Tight end territory. I say it’s Foster Moreau, but Josh Oliver and Alize Mack have also visited.

    Round 5: I think a developmental edge guy like Banogu or Jordan Brailford can be in play here. Maybe an offensive lineman like Brumfeld (LSU) or a RB like Scarlett or Homer if we don’t get one earlier. I’m saying Jordan Brailford.

    Rounds 6+7: Kind of a crap shoot here, but I think we come away with the Oregon WR Mitchell if we don’t grab one earlier. I also expect to see at least 1 O lineman and 1 D lineman at the end of Day 3.
     
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  2. SteelCity_NB

    SteelCity_NB Staff Member Mod Team

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    Savage in the 1st would be a Terrell Edmunds type pick all over again. Savage has alot of boom or bust imo.

    His tackling ability is on our with Sean Davis and that is not a compliment. I could live with Savage in the 2nd but not at #20. If we traded down closer to #30, then maybe. Still would have my hesitations.

    I have alot more faith in Nasir Adderly.
     
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  3. turtle

    turtle

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    What are your thoughts on trading up? 10 is a lot to add in the draft and with all the signings this offseason they are pushing that 90 man limit.

    CBS shows Sanders had 10 fumbles in 276 attempts over his 3 year career, that seems pretty high, if he's the pick I hope they can clean that up because he has the talent.

    Savage in the first would be a bold move, especially with S in the first two years running. But I can see the rest playing out your way.
     
  4. mac daddyo

    mac daddyo Well-Known Member

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    I'm pretty close with this as well elvis. I got us as

    Savage
    Isabella
    Long jr
    Layne
    Mack

    I could see this happen easily.:cool:
     
  5. Steel_Elvis

    Steel_Elvis Staff Member Mod Team

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    I don't know who we would trade up for. Looking at who we've been bringing in for draft visits, I don't see that trade-up guy. The Steelers tend to be kind of transparent in that 1st round picks are generally brought in for visits, or both Colbert and Tomlin attend the pro day (sometimes having dinner with the key prospect). I suppose Bush or White could fall into that category (a mistake IMO), but I doubt it. Bush at #20 would be good, but I don't see him being there.

    Note that this is not what I would do, but where I predict we're headed based on public linkage between the Steelers and prospects. I would not draft Savage at #20 (though I do like him as a potential pick up if we trade down). I do not like Sanders, but there's linkage there as well.
     
  6. Steel_Elvis

    Steel_Elvis Staff Member Mod Team

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    Mac, I can't see Layne being there at 3b. A 6'+ corner with 4.4 speed and "good enough" tape is going to be gone in the first 60 picks IMO.
     
  7. turtle

    turtle

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    I was thinking about trades in any round also. I don't think they move up in the first either, and actually the second either.
     
  8. Steel_Elvis

    Steel_Elvis Staff Member Mod Team

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    I wonder - if we take a position other than corner in the 1st, and if either Murphy or Baker are available early in the 2nd, do we pull the trigger? I think those guys are definitely pegged above the next tier of corners. I wouldn't mind trading back in the first, and then up in the second to get two solid players. Even with the dept of this draft, I see the potential for a sizable drop off in player grades at positions we need between the top of the 2nd and our 2nd round spot.
     
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  9. turtle

    turtle

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    if those two (Murphy, Baker) fell to the 2nd then yea, I would trade up as well.
     
  10. mac daddyo

    mac daddyo Well-Known Member

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  11. mac daddyo

    mac daddyo Well-Known Member

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    Heck it's possible we see layne valued by us in the 2nd. I think they like him. Could we see savage layne 1-2 and long 3 and Jennings or mack or Boykin as a 3b? Jennings now in for a visit as well as the brass at the pro days of these guys. I do think we are zeroing in on the possible picks. Just waiting for who drops to us.

    I can see savage, layne, long as the top 3. Kev can move with a 6th in the 3rd or 4th.:cool:
     
    Last edited: Apr 16, 2019 at 7:09 AM
  12. Steel_Elvis

    Steel_Elvis Staff Member Mod Team

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    Generally agree. However, I have trouble seeing the first 3 picks all being on defense if there's an offensive weapon we like that's still there at 3a. They like to spread picks between O and D.
     
  13. mac daddyo

    mac daddyo Well-Known Member

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    i think if any year to wait for a wr its this one. they go very deep with good ones. we know he wants that replacement for shazier. we are looking at so many safeties and corners around these picks that i just think they could gamble this year and still get their guy at 3b. it is our real third rounder. 3a. is a bonus. :cool:
     
  14. thesteeldeal

    thesteeldeal Well-Known Member

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    Hardman at 3a....:beg:
     
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  15. NY STEELERFAN

    NY STEELERFAN Well-Known Member

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    Well I am gonna throw this out there how about Chase Winovich as our 1st rounder? I am not in favor but based on last year when the Steelers threw us all for a loop I am gonna think outside the box here. So I was reading on the Steelers Depot and this stood out to me:

    Last year, they dined with Terrell Edmunds, James Washington, and Joshua Frazier before drafting them.

    Pro Day Dinners

    OLB Chase Winovich – Michigan

    Chase is the only one.......is he this years Edmunds, I know some here are very high on him but not in the first right?
     
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  16. thesteeldeal

    thesteeldeal Well-Known Member

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    He will be 24 in a few days. That's usually not their style in the first round. I don't think he's in consideration for the 1st. I would hope we wouldn't be bringing in someone who is already 24 to sit behind Dupree for a year. If that's the case advanced scouting should of been able to identify that he would be available at pick 20. Winovich didn't come out of nowhere. It may have been questionable that someone like Burns may not be available but Winovich will be there all day at 20. Why give DUD 9 mil. then? When you had to kinda know Winovich would be available?

    Something else to consider if you're thinking outside the box. Everyone and their mother has Bush as our pick(if available) but the actual interest shown from us towards him seems to be pretty scarce. Does anyone know if Bush was part of that dinner? I'm taking Colberts comments about replacing Shazier pretty seriously. I know you have a thread about moving up 10 spots but what if it's 5? I'd be more surprised than not if they don't try and move up at least 5 to get Bush. They might not find a willing partner but I'd be surprised to hear that they didn't at least try, like they did for Evans last year. JMO
     
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  17. NY STEELERFAN

    NY STEELERFAN Well-Known Member

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    I am not in favor of Chase in the first maybe not even in the 2nd I am just using our past history as a tool as to who we draft. With only Chase as the only dinner I am saying this could be another Edmunds like pick where we are all caught off guard and our chin left laying on the floor. I am not sure if Bush was part of it but that wasn't reported and if he was part of that dinner I would think it would have been reported.

    I agree with you 100% on what you said I just am throw this theory out there. Many people have brought up how we draft players Colbert and/or Tomlin meet with. The article over at Steelers Depot has brought up what I quoted about the dinners and it made me look at Chase a little more.......:shrug::roflmao:
     
  18. turtle

    turtle

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    I just think they are being more secretive this year. They know they have to get this one right. Colbert splitting off on his own on the Texas tour kinda feels the same way.

    I'm not reading anything into the dinner except they like Winovich as a day two guy.
     
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  19. mac daddyo

    mac daddyo Well-Known Member

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    dont forget mullen as a possible 2nd rounder they all went to the clemson pro day. he met with MT at the combine and we either worked out or met with he and layne at michigans pro day.

    i think savage, layne, mullen, winovich, long jr., johnson, jennings are all in play within these first 4 picks. i'd add love, mack and boykin in this group. :cool:
     
  20. thesteeldeal

    thesteeldeal Well-Known Member

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    Yeah I see where you're coming from. I was just trying to add some other evidence that they probably don't see him as a first.....I also agree with turtle that they are keeping things close to the vest
     
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  21. Steel_Elvis

    Steel_Elvis Staff Member Mod Team

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    I doubt that they take Winovich at 20. However, if they do take Winovich I wouldn’t complain. I really like Winovich at and behind the line of scrimmage. Since he was pretty much always attacking in Michigan’s scheme, the only times i can recall seeing him in coverage was when he read a screen pass and broke off his pass rush to cover the screen target. His combine numbers of a 4.59 40, 4.11 shuttle and 6.94 3 cone are indicative of the physical capability to be a complete 3-4 OLB.

    Path to the Draft on NFL Network compared him to Clay Matthews, which is something I did as well a month or two ago. The similarity goes well beyond the hair. I’d take a 24 year old Matthews at #20 without complaint.

    What would be even better is to draft Winovich and then trade Bud for a late round pick to get his $9 million off the books. I’ll take that all day.
     
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  22. Blast Furnace

    Blast Furnace Staff Member Mod Team

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    Wouldn't surprise me and I wouldn't mind it. I'm very high on him, tried to sell him in our mock draft.
     
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  23. NY STEELERFAN

    NY STEELERFAN Well-Known Member

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    If that happened I would have no problem with Chase being our first rounder............
     
  24. mac daddyo

    mac daddyo Well-Known Member

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    Last year didn't throw us ALL for a loop but Chase at 20? That would be an extreme reach. Not to mention a lot of wasted money on dupree and a lot of wasted effort by our scouts and coaches looking at the top wrs and corners. :cool:
     
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  25. NY STEELERFAN

    NY STEELERFAN Well-Known Member

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    I must have missed all the people all the people pimping him and all the people talking about him.....I don't remember any of that but I am getting old too. As for wasted money there will be none on Dupree if we trade him. and that is what Blast said.
     

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