Steelers: Analytics? We don't need no stinking analytics!

Another great debate

Scheme vs Personnel vs Execution

 

Maybe don't reflexively and obediently trot out a vulnerable to the pass base defense against teams that can do this. There aren't all that many. The One Size Fits All, We Do What We Do, Nameless Grey Faces approach to coaching is particularly vulnerable to versatile teams and coaches.

 

Every team in the NFL is vulnerable to the pass. Why don't you know this? It's a passing league. 18 QB passed for over 3500 yards. Passing number continue to go up.

There aren't all that many? Pay attention to the NFL.

I am going to provide some stats since you seem to think the Steelers coaches are incompetent:

Steelers gave up 56.7 completion %. That was best in the league.
3rd in the league in passing yards allowed.
QB ratings vs Steelers defense was 76.7. Best in the league
22 TD passes against. Only 4 teams gave up less TD passes at 17 and 21.
Best in the league sacking the QB. The front and back ends played well enough as a unit to lead the league in sacks.

In short the Steelers were one of the best defensive units in the league. That being said, even the best can be exploited due to various factors. Coaches, players, and teams have good and bad games.

The other guys are paid professionals that can have success.

 

LoL.
Sorry.
If a team called a time out every time a team put them in a bad matchup you wouldn't have any by the middle of the 3rd Quarter.

 

Yes Offenses just wait while you get everyone set, after they have put You on a bad matchup.
Hold on Guys ....they are not ready

 

You know We do this 2 teams also

 

Any time you have tools to use to improve your production
lets use them.

 

Yikes - the number of people defending Avery Williamson and Butler covering #1 WRs with slow LBs is not something I expected, but here we are.

 

#1 receivers are vastly over-rated...

Ten other guys out there.

 

Why this point of emphasis during that game continues to be a major detraction is truly beyond me. Blake Bortles did not beat the Pittsburgh Steelers that day. Big Ben's horrible start to that game is what caused us to lose. Going down by 21 points in the first quarter via three turnovers?? Unacceptable.

 

It was 2 turnovers and the D is allowed to make stops. Maybe force some TO's and sacks of their own.

They got none of either.

They pulled to within 7 with plenty of time left and couldn't stop Jacksonville the rest of the game. Embarrassing loss.

 

Umm.... 3. Big Ben fumbled and lost one in that game. Three total turnovers was my statement. I never stated three interceptions.


Furthermore, I only highlighted the major glaring weaknesses of that debacle; a laundry list of aspects that I will not repeat as the 2017 Season has come and pass. Finally, coming within 7 to win is meaningless if the team has to essentially play catch up the entire game.


Realistically speaking, that game should have been no where near as close as it should have been if Blake Bortles played to his draft status (a bust he was, is and will always be).

 

The Steelers had two total turnovers that day.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201801140pit.htm

They made it 28-21 a little more than midway through the 3rd quarter. Then the D allowed Jax to drive 61 yards to go up 14.

Ben brought them to within 7 again, and the D surrendered a 75-yard TD drive.

Ben brought them to within 7 AGAIN, and Tomlin called for an onside kick, which failed, setting up the kill shot FG.

Ben threw for almost 500 yards and 5 TDs, the D sucked the entire game and Tomlin choked.

 

Ike would agree

 

Turnovers were the difference in the outcome of the game. Turnovers are usually the difference.
Probably no other statistic influences the outcome of games more than turnovers regardless of final scores.

The more turnovers the of more likely a team will lose. That's the analytics of turnovers.

 

Right on, brother.

Turnovers are THE analytic. Tangible and easy to understand how much they influence the outcome of a game. I sourced these turnover differential stats from Pro Football Reference and they were compiled from 2002 through 2013:

Turnover Differential +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7

Wins 747 608 117 186 68 0 5

Losses 327 342 35 6 3 18 0

Win% 69.6% 83.9% 90.7 96.9% 95.8% 100% 100%

Until Pittsburgh starts winning the turnover battle in playoff games, they have a 30% chance to win if they give up JUST ONE MORE TURNOVER than their opponent. It's low hanging fruit to blame it all on the defense. However, when you give the opponent just one extra possession by turning over the ball via an offensive miscue, analytics say you have a 30% chance to win the game. Take care of the damn ball!

This is why I cringed when Canada basically said Ben's going to do what he wants. I think he needs to be handled like he was when was younger and inexperienced. Because Ben's happy place is to go shotgun, no huddle and throw the ball all over the damn place. Regarding this season, if they should by some miracle make the playoffs, they need to turn the game in to fist fight, similar to how Cowher would game plan. Take care of the ball, run the ball, pass when the defense is in your favor and play grinding defense and win the field position battle with superior special teams. I could care less if it's pretty. KC has that pretty offense and a Maserati QB, and Tampa's defense throttled them. Brady wasn't great, he was average. But, they won the turnover battle and he made throws when he had to. Ben is barely a cut above a game manager at this point in his career and he needs to be reminded of that if he wants to win.

I post this because there was a lot of snarling, myself included about Tomlin laying yet another playoff egg. No doubt, he's the HC and has to absorb some of the criticism. But b!tching about misused challenges, time outs and refusing to go for a first on fourth down pale in comparison to the turnover metric.

 

Big Ben threw two picks and lost one fumble during the 2017 AFC Divisional Playoff Game per Pro Football Reference. That is a total of three. However, none of that is a factor in terms of this thread.



What is paramount is analytics in Football, which again, is very susceptible to error unlike other sports with far less variables around them. Analytics again do play a role in the NFL but not towards an immeasurable degree.

 

I mean, I posted the Pro Football Reference link to that game that disproves that. Here it is again.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201801140pit.htm

 

1 Fumble

1 Fumble Lost.

 

Those both refer to the same fumble.

1 fumble + 1 INT == 2 turnovers.

 

2 INT + 1 Fumble Lost = 3 Turnovers given away.

 

Are you counting instant replay of the INT as a 2nd INT?

https://www.espn.com/nfl/boxscore/_/gameId/400999181