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Realistic Passing Stats.

Discussion in 'Steelers Talk' started by Wardismvp, Jun 27, 2022.

  1. Wardismvp

    Wardismvp Well-Known Member

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    What are we going to do to make up for the rest of plays??? I think total plays in a game are like 67?
     
  2. DJ18Baller

    DJ18Baller Well-Known Member

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    The other dude said 29 passes a game was the minimum last year so if that’s the case my 25 guess would be wrong. Mitch throwing the ball 30 X a game has disaster written all over it but it sounds like that’s the case in todays NFL.

    You have to remember this though Mitchell will tuck and run a lot as well because he can’t read defenses so that will be a few plays each game at least too. Canada will have designed bootleg runs for him as well plus WR motion sweeps. I am hoping as little passing as possible but 30 appears to be the minimum.
     
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  3. CK 13

    CK 13 Well-Known Member

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    30 to 35 attempts. I feel Mitch will be fine.

    I feel the Offensive Line will be solid and dominate and run Najee Run!
     
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  4. MeanJoeBlue

    MeanJoeBlue Well-Known Member

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    That is a great resource. Thanks for pointing it out.
    (Maybe some day I'll use pro-football-reference to dig into the numbers in more detail, but for casual arguments that is too much work.)

    Minor comment: I noticed that the win-loss-tie number is for the team, not for Ben.
    For example, his first playing time against the Ravens counts as a loss, even though he didn't start.
    Won't make much of a difference since Ben was QB1 for almost all his career, but there will be games here and there where Ben was injured and the backup was more of a factor in the win/loss.

    I think in general (not just the Steelers) the over/under 40 pass attempts needs to be filtered somehow to account for cases where the team made the choice to pass that much versus when they were forced to pass that much (behind enough that rushing attempts use up too much clock). That will make it easier to argue when the team should plan to pass a lot.
     
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  5. MeanJoeBlue

    MeanJoeBlue Well-Known Member

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    To add some context (and muddy the waters), that really depends on the team.
    The quoted number of offensive plays sometimes includes punts, FG, ???

    Last year, TB had 731 passing and 385 rushing attempts for the season (average 65.6 per game).
    Then you had a team like Seattle, with 495 passing and 413 rushing (53.4 / game).

    In 2021, the Steelers had 664 passing and 411 rushing (63.2 / game).

    In 2020, they had 656 passing and 373 rushing (64.3 / game).
    In the multiple QB year of 2019, they had 510 passing and 395 rushing (56.6 / game).

    I only looked back to 2017, but other than 2019, the Steelers were right around 64 (passing or rushing) attempts per game.

    EDIT: This had me curious to check 2004, when rookie Ben was the 3rd string QB forced to start, the Bus was rolling, and the team was often turtle-balling because they had the lead.
    358 passing, 618 rushing, 61 attempts/game
     
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  6. S.T.D

    S.T.D Well-Known Member

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  7. S.T.D

    S.T.D Well-Known Member

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    As I pointed out 2 @jeh1856....I have found Stat muse incorrect a few times.
     
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  8. Wardismvp

    Wardismvp Well-Known Member

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    Since DJ seems to be all the talk
     
  9. Karl

    Karl Well-Known Member

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    I need a working crystal ball.

    Ideally you want to strike a balance. 50-50 run/pass.
    Even more ideally you would like to run the ball like 90/10 if possible. lol.
    But that's not realistic.

    Canada is a bit like the West Approach.
    Get the ball into the hands of the playmakers with short high percentage passes. (Extended handoffs)
    Then strike with the occasional deep pass.

    I'm guessing, a lot, that his basic game plan would probably be a 60/40 pass to run ratio.. major guess on my part.
     
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  10. Steelersfan43

    Steelersfan43 Well-Known Member

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    I want to see more running play and also more deep pass attempts.The dink and dunk offense in the last few years is enough for me
     
  11. Clive From PIT

    Clive From PIT Site Admin

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    @Karl, you know WAYYY more about football than I, but…

    I think, taking into account current rules generally and the upcoming opponent more specifically, the offense will almost always be biased toward the passing game.
     
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  12. Steelrules

    Steelrules Well-Known Member

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    What was his win percentage when he threw 50+ times? My recollection is it wasn’t good
     
  13. Karl

    Karl Well-Known Member

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    Yes, I would agree.
    Just to support your point, you don't game plan to run against the team that is #1 against the run.
    And in today's NFL it is probably 60/40 pass/run anyway, but the opponent does impact that.

    That AFC West is going to be tough to pass against (great group of pass rushers)
     
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  14. Brice

    Brice Well-Known Member

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    Funny, That is right out of the 70s or maybe a little before.

    The old saying go as to why Teams don't pass the ball more, "Is that when passing the ball there is only 3 possible outcomes and 2 of the 3 are bad, so why would you ever pass the ball".
     
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  15. jeh1856

    jeh1856 Can we come in

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    I’m not suggesting 90/10 but back in the mid 70’s everyone knew our first offensive play was going to be Franco up the middle

    Noll was asked why he ran the same play every time

    He said if it works there is no reason to run any other play the rest of the game
     
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  16. Karl

    Karl Well-Known Member

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    The "Riggo Drill" or the "Bus Drill" etc...

    I liked Noll's response
    I know the game today is pass, but if you have a Henry that the defense can't stop... lol
     
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