Overall playoff picture...

Until the Steelers are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, there's nothing wrong with keeping hope alive (imo). Anything the Steelers do from this point forward that's positive will be in spite of Tomlin, not because of him. (imo)

 

I struggle with reality.
There were a lot of seasons when he wasn't undermanned, and the final results were similar. It's slipped to the point where 'Non-losing seasons' has become a badge of honor, Tomlin's legacy.
This is Tomlin's mess. We're paying for it, he should 'chew on it'.

 

Well things played out yesterday much like I had thought with Buffalo winning in Miami, Indy beating the Jags at home, and Oakland winning at home against the Bengals. So the Bills are now 7-3 with the Broncos up next, the Colts play the Texans on Thursday in Houston which I think they will lose and Houston and them will flip spots now from the 6 seed to Indy dropping completely out, and Oakland most likely will win against the Jets in New York on Sunday.

So like I mentioned the other day win in Cincinnati get to 6-5 overall and continue to hang around that 7-8 seed in the AFC until you play the Browns here in 13 days and hopefully get to 7-5 in which at that point you can jump over both the Colts and Raiders who I also feel will be 7-5 and the Steelers will hold tiebreakers over both and into the 6 seed in the AFC. And they will be one game behind the Bills who will be 8-4 with that huge game looming here at Heinz Field on December 15th.

So not an overall productive day yesterday for the Steelers in the wildcard standings but it was to be expected and as I keep pointing out as long as the Steelers win their next 2 games at Cincy and at home against the Browns things will change a lot in the AFC wildcard standings in two weeks time come December 1st and 2nd.

The bottom line is this the next 2 weeks if the Steelers win the next 2 games with Cincy and Cleveland, the Colts lose in Houston this Thursday, the Raiders lose in Kansas City on Dec 1st, and the Bills lose in Dallas on Thanksgiving the Steelers will be the 6 seed and jump both the Raiders and Colts, and be one full game behind the Bills who play the Ravens the following week one week before that huge game with them here at Heinz Field.

 

Wishes, ifs, and prognostications.

That's fine, really.

But really...really...this team needs to worry about beating Cincy. If we stay healthy throughout the game...if we can open a hole or two...if our RBs hit the hole...if our receivers can get open...if MR can hit an open receiver...if our receivers can catch what is thrown to them...if we don't turn the ball over...we can win this game...we should win by 3 scores...

There is no browns game in two weeks until there is a bengals game in one week. This team isn't going to be able to fix what ails it in a month. At best, this is going to be a slightly better version of what we are seeing right now. At worst, it is exactly what we saw Thursday night.

I'm not excited about the playoffs or seeding or anything. I'm not even excited about playing the bungles. What can go right? We win by 4? What can go wrong? Thursday night again.

I'll still be watching and rooting for them, but I'm not going to be excited about it.

 

The FiveThirtyEight playoff predictor currently gives the Steelers a 29% chance of reaching the playoffs.

Beat Cincy and it rises to 35%, lose and it drops to 10%.
Beat Cincy and Cleveland and it rises to 51%.
Beat Cincy but lose to Cleveland, 12%
Lose to Cincy and beat Cleveland, 18%
Lose to both, 1%

The predictor only goes out 2 games, but I'm a little concerned about Arizona too. Their record isn't good, but they're not Redskins/Bengals/Jets terrible.

 

Again the 3 teams the Steelers have to worry about to get 1 of the 2 wildcard spots are the Bills,Raiders, and Colts. Now they only have to finish ahead of two of those three teams to get one of those spots. And the good news with that is they own the head to head tiebreaker over the Colts, and are gonna have a chance to own the head to head tiebreaker here over the Bills when they play them in December if they beat them which I believe they will do.

Looking at both the Colts and Bills schedules I just don’t see either of them doing any better then 9-7. So as long as the Steelers can get to 9 wins and beat the Bills head to head on their path to 9 wins they will get one of those two wildcard spots because they will own the head to head tiebreaker over both the Colts and Bills. The Raiders schedule is a bit easier but they are no lock to get to 10 wins either and could also finish 9-7 and could lose a tiebreaker to the Steelers based on AFC Conference record.

The Steelers path to 9 wins as I have been saying for weeks is beat Cincy and Cleveland the next 2 weeks, beat the Bills at home and win one of those 3 road games at Arizona, at New York against the Jets, and at Baltimore. If they do that they will get it I truly believe that will be good enough. The Bills and Colts again both will be no better then 9-7 looking at both their remaining schedules. That’s why finishing at 9-7 and beating the Bills and having head to head tiebreakers over both the Colts and Bills will get them in.

 

The Ravens could be playing for the top seed in the AFC that week.

 

Opening line in Vegas has us giving the Bengals 6 points with the over-under at 39.5.
The under might be the best bet.

 

First team between Colts, Bills, Oakland and Steelers to reach 10 will make WC..
But, two out of these 4 will make it... I don't see Bills doing much their last few games...4 outta last 5 games include

@ Cowboys
Home vs Ratbirds
@Steelers
@ Patriots

Could and should be 4 straight loses there..

 

Could not agree more...this is NOT a playoff caliber team. QB uncertainty, WR issues, overhyped O- line and let’s not forget CRIPPLING injuries have forced us to rely too heavily on a defense that is just beginning to show a spark of domination. Didn’t seem to make a difference in the Browns debacle. Jim Mora had it right years ago...PLAYOFFS?!?!?!

 

I don’t know if any of those teams get to 10 wins. That’s why it’s so key for the Steelers to get to 9 wins because I feel the Bills and Colts will be no better then 9-7 and if they beat the Bills they own the head to head over both the Bills and the Colts. If they win the AFC games with the Bengals, Browns, and Bills that gets them to 7 AFC wins and they would finish no worse then 7-5 in the conference which might even be good enough to get in over Oakland with the tiebreakers if they both finish 9-7.

So there is just a lot working in the Steelers favor I still feel to get them in and the number 1 thing going for them is their schedule. They will have nobody to blame but themselves if they do not get in at 9-7 and take advantage of this easy schedule they have the last 6 weeks of this season. They MUST win these next 2 games against both the Bengals and Browns if they don’t then I will change my mind and say they will virtually have no chance to get in. These next two games are absolute MUST WIN games.

 

I know everyone is pretty much saying Texans win their division but would we have any tie breakers over them (if Colts win that division??)

 

The Texans are 5-2 in conf games vs 4-3 for Pitt. To get conf record tiebreak, you basically need Hou to win @TB while the Steelers lose @Az, this would make Hou 2-2 vs NFC and the Steelers 1-3. That would mean if they're tied Pitt would have the better AFC record. But would need to somehow close the 2game gap with the other games.

After Conf Record, the next Tiebreak is conf record. The 4 common opps are: LAC, Ind, NE and Bal. Hou is 1-2 vs these teams with home games vs Ind and NE to go. Pitt is 2-2 with an away game vs Bal left.

So tiebreaks with Houston don't look great right now.

 

I think Houston will win the South. I think they will finish 10-6 and the Colts will finish 9-7. I think the Texans lose to the Patriots and one of the games they have left with the Titans and beat the Colts this Thursday, Denver, Tennessee once, and at Tampa. That should get them to 10 wins. I think the Colts lose this week to Texans, lose in New Orleans, and lose one of these 4 games at Jacksonville at Tampa, or at home to Carolina or Tennessee which puts them at 9-7.

Now If the Colts beat the Texans Thursday in Houston then things obviously change a lot but I don’t think that will happen. The bottom line is the Steelers really need Indy to stay as a wildcard team to better their chances of making the playoffs since they own that head to head tiebreaker over them which is gonna be huge come early and mid December when things get really tight and if the Steelers win the games they are supposed to win these last 6 weeks.

I think the Colts losing to both the Raiders and the Steelers is ultimately going to keep them out of the playoffs. Those are gonna be two huge losses for them when it comes to head to head tiebreakers for the wildcard spot come late December.

 

Over and over!

 

It was hilarious when Johnny did it.......... ....but now - it's a royal crap shoot.

 

Latest playoff picture:

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/11/19/afc-playoff-picture-a-change-atop-the-afc-south/

 

One game at a time. Playoffs or not... this team is not prepared for a legitimate run with all of injuries and inconsistency on offense.

 

Let's just beat cinci this week.

 

I have no idea why some of yinz are saying the Steelers "should" beat the Bills. Given the state of the offense I see no reason to think they "should" beat anyone anywhere at this point.

Not saying they won't beat the Bills, but right now it's not, imo, a reasonable expectation that they should beat any team with a winning record.

 

I agree. Unless the D scores at least 1 TD... it's gonna be tough to win games against any team.

 

One of these fools are going to be the knock out punch for the Steelers.

beeep beeep beeep beeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeep

 

I'm not sure an easy path is the answer for this team.

 

Bro! You gotta change that avatar! I'll send you a beer?