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Our Evaluation - 3rd Quarter of the Season

Discussion in 'Steelers Talk' started by WWW, Dec 6, 2011.

  1. WWW

    WWW Writing Team

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    To read 1st & 2nd Qtr Evaluations:
    1st Quarter evaluation: Old Board http://mboard.steelers.com/fanzone/mboard/news/94957
    2nd Quarter evaluation: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=312

    We lost 1 game hosting BAL and won 3 games (@ CIN, @ KC and vs CIN) this quarter.
    Brief recap of main changes we saw last 4 games:

    -Brown earning a bigger role on offense
    -Our D getting ints & Fumbles (Gay, Timmons, Lewis, Mundy, Ike 2!)
    -vs BAL we weren't able to stop the last drive. Both, @ CIN and @KC were clinched by ints.
    -Screens to WRs were back (Still not productive enough to earn a spot on the Playbook)
    -Wallace being double covered, still targeted, but no completed bombs to him
    -Harrison back sacking QBs
    -Old Arians making Cameos (particullarly against KC. Go away, bring back the new Arians with short-effective passing plays!)

    OFFENSE
    QB Roethlisberger will be selected to the ProBowl, which speaks volumes of his gameplay this season since he's not a fan favourite. Quick reads, nice throws, better understanding with Wallace & Brown, better clock management... but he's still getting a lot of hits. It's his style and it won't change. I don't care what announcers and broadcasters say, it's simply his style and what makes him take something out of nothing. And, that's why we need big leads, in order to keep him away from the field on what could be garbage time. Batch looked really rusted. Having him play on sunday means Dixon will be gone coming february. And Leftwich is not the answer (injury prone, and not effective at all). Maybe we are going for a 5th or 6th rounder next year.
    RBs Mendenhall is fighting for tought yards, but is still playing a pretty inconsistent season. Redman has gained more yards, and more difficult ones against same opponents. Maybe it's just a slump, a bad year or a bad combination of his style and our Oline weaknessess. Taking that into account, Arians has chosen right to mix the RB job and carries, but I still think Redman needs to get more the ball. D Johnson has made nice blocks, and aligning Miller as a FB has created some space for our backs to smash it behind our Oline. Still can't get why we don't have a natural FB.
    TEs Miller has had a diminished role on the last games, but don't get confused: it's because defenses are not blitzing us that much. As soon as we get blitzed, Miller will become again a hot read and will get his catches. He's dropped some balls, but it's just part of the game, nothing to be worried about. Saunders has had a nice couple of catches. He's probably made clear he wants the roster spot Spaeth left, and is making the most of his opportunity. Still too early to know if he will be the #2 TE on the years to come.
    WRs: Our deepest unit on offense. Weapons everywhere. Brown & Wallace give headaches to Defensive Coordinators and Safeties: hard to know which one to double cover. Sanders needs to stay healthy, he's a playmaker and needs to get into rythm with Ben & the offense. Great answer to the call by J Cotchery, he can easily be a reliable target on 4 & 5 receiver sets. It is also nice to see our team trying to help Ward getting 12000 yds & 1000 receptions, but wonder if it is a planned thing so he can retire after the season, with those milestones as credentials to the HOF.
    OL: Hard to evaluate this unit, since it barely plays full back to back games with the same alignment. Pouncey has had health issues and is not having a probowl season, but is easily the best of our Oliners. He's understanding blocking schemes well enough to handle NT and MLB on pass protection, but still needs to understand that his teammates are not at his level, in order to making calls for lesser disadvantages when Ds charge right into the middle. Starks is playing an above average season. Gilbert will be our longtime RT starter, that speaks for itself. Our Gs, even though Legursky & Kemo sometimes play good games, are our weak link on OL. We do need to adress this in the next draft.
    Offensive Gameballs this Quarter: Roethlisberger, Brown

    DEFENSE
    DL: Keisel is having a quiet carrer year. He's been a beast at anything that he has to do. Hood & Heyward need to get reps, and will be the future of our Dline. Hampton has been a shadow player, better noticed when unnoticed, being a factor of teams not trying to run in the middle. McLendon will need to start getting reps as soon as he's healthy, 'cause Hampton won't be here forever.
    LB: This is our deepest unit on D: 4 Quality starters with great backups. Health has been an issue, but with Worilds & Sylvester getting reps, it won't be a problem, even if Woodleys hammy isn't healthy enough for the rest of regular season. Farrior probably is playing his last or next to last year, and isn't quitting. Timmons still hasn't played lights out this year, but has the tools and game understanding, but lacks of confidence on some plays (making leverage and on flat covers). He'll need to step up next year with whoever is our other starting ILB. Woodley & Harrison will make an impact on January if healthy, beneffited by Worilds taking some reps and leaving them rested into the playoffs. Sylvester needs to make some plays, as Carter too.
    DBs: Other than Taylor, no one on the perimeter has played a great season. Polamalu is either injured or misscomunicating with Clark, Clark getting late to double coverage or deep routes, Gay is inconsistent (but when he plays good, he excells 'cause of his abilities and tools). K Lewis needs to get involved a little bit more on Dime & Nickel, and make an impact in order to be back next year. C Brown has excelleed on STs and will get some reps, probably next games if we have decent leads.

    Defensive Gameballs this Quarter: Harrison, Ike Taylor

    STs
    Suisham has been improving the distance of his KOs. Can't tell if he's changed his style, but it has worked. Also, that was a nice 49 yarder @KC. Hope he's improving, but if not it will be difficult to envision him with a Steeler uniform coming 2012.
    Sepulveda: It's a shame, one of the better persons and a great player sidelined. It's painfull to watch him go away, but he's had season ending injuries 4 or 5 times since college. Time to move on to Kapinos, who has done an outstanding job to earn the spot for 2012 so far.
    Brown: It was a matter of time until he got one to the house. Hopefuly, he'll give us another one before the season ends.
    First FG block since that opener vs TEN centuries ago (game better remembered for Polamalu's great only quarter of play, with a one handed grab and a great C Johnson tacke for loss). Great call and momentum changer.
    ST Gameballs this Quarter: Brown, Kapinos, Carter, Sylvester

    Coaching / FO
    Missing Woodley, Farrior and Sanders vs Bal was giving too much advantage. Even when Ward got hit (and out for the game). Seemed as if on the last drive we were waiting for Flacco to make a mistake instead of forcing him onto tight coverage. Next 3 games it was different, with D closing out even with starters out (Polamalu, Woodley).
    On Offense, there were sparkles of the Old Arians, the one that seemed to have gone away, the one that insists on running and deep throwing. Hope he goes away soon and forever.
    STs were fooled against KC, but played huge vs CIN with 3 of the biggest plays of the game (blocked kick, kickoff fumble recovery, punt return TD).
    FO: Bringing Kapinos instead of Sepulveda (IR) has proved to be a decent choice. Seemed that if there haven't been a lockout, Kapinos could easily have earned the roster spot ahead of Sep. Nice guy, but injury prone since college days. Wish him luck and hope Kapinos is back for the years to come.
    Brown, Wallace & Sanders need their contracts to be extended as soon as the season ends (hopefully, on February). Also, it's becoming evident we do need a faster and much eager FS, even though Clark makes some plays... and painfully, maybe begin thinking if Mundy is the answer once Polamalu can't play anymore. Even if he keeps playing, seems like he's gonna be missing half seasons with 'undisclosed injuries'. On Offense, bringing back Starks has helped. It only proves the big mistake we made letting Flo & Starks walk away before the season. Hope they learn from it.
    Coaching / FO Gameballs this Quarter: Al Everest, FO for bringing back Kapinos

    Random Thoughts
    -As long as Wallace continues to get doubled, Brown will have a lot of success. His communication and understanding with Big Ben is getting better, and it has payed big.
    -Coming january, we'll need a bit of a running game on cold weather. None of the AFC teams that could host a game, besides Houston, plays indoors.
    -Defense is not letting us down again on last drive comeback attempts, not @ CIN, not @ KC. But that letdown against BAL is costing us so far the Division.
    -Our O playcalling needs to stop experiments on the pass-run mix. We do have a lot of weapons, spread the ball and torch the D!
    -We do need to get fast starts and big leads vs CLE & STL in order to rest our injured players and playmakers.
    -Ike getting ints is probably making him the most improved steelers since last year, besides Brown.
    -Our STs finally make their weight feel on a game. Make it on a consistent basis and we'll have an everygame advantage.
    -We took a centuty to create turnovers, but they're coming on bunches. 2 against SF could be great, and the difference maker.

    Ahead on schedule next quarter:vs CLE, @SF, vs STL, @CLE
    vs CLE Must win this one, carrying the momentum from the game vs CIN.
    @ SF With SF fighting for #2 seed, it's not a lock that they will overlook us. Still, Jim & John could easily share info. This one will be a hard battle, but a game that, analyzing personnel matchups, I think we can beat them.
    vs STL Well, this could be the easier remaining. And, also... will be a classic with LeBeau's t'was the night before christmas.
    @ CLE This one could be a trap game. Same day the Ratbirds play @CIN. We must win, whatever it takes.

    4-0 will keep us in the fight to win the division at 13-3, waiting for the Ratbirds to drop 1 game.
    3-1 will secure a Wild Card and #5 seed. 12-4
    2-2 will mean #6 seed (at 11-5, with the East and West still fighting themselves, there's no way to be out at 11-5, mathematically)
    1-3 Probably will mean a fight for #6, but... if we go 1-3 against this opponents (with all due respect), what could we do in the Playoffs?
    0-4 Our players will be wathcing football on TV coming January.

    What are your thoughts on this?
     
  2. HugeSnack

    HugeSnack Well-Known Member

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    Eh, that was alright.
     
  3. Thigpen82

    Thigpen82 Bitter optimist

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    Good analysis.

    This particular point got me thinking:

    Every year we have kids coming through camp - Chris Dieker this year, the guy from Pitt a year or so back - and they never stick around. But Dixon and Lefty don't particularly show anything that any backup QB can do. Maybe if Dixon had a bit more consistency, or confidence in running with the ball... but I suppose what I'm saying is, what do Dixon and Lefty have that means they stay here (in general), and would a 5th or 6th rounder also "have" that?
     
  4. mac daddyo

    mac daddyo Well-Known Member

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    the scarecrow couldn't find his oil can. :) :? :cool:
     
  5. SteelerD

    SteelerD Well-Known Member

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    I think they made the team originally for different reasons. Lefty because he had a lot of game experience and had even been a moderately successful starter in the NFL prior to coming to Pittsburgh. Dixon because the needed to fill a hole in the roster behind Batch at the time. Batch has been on the "too old" fence for what seems like about 20 years now. However, I think they have stuck around for the same reason. The each have experience in this system and the FO at least knows what they have in these two.
     
  6. HugeSnack

    HugeSnack Well-Known Member

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    I hope not! Between Leftwich, Batch, and Dixon, I'm quite happy with our backup situation. I think it's likely a 5th round rookie would be worse than any of those guys. Those guys are all capable backups. Remember, Lefty is the #2 but is hurt right now, and I think #3 is a toss-up. As long as Ben's around they keep Batch active because he's a vet who can come in off the bench, but if Ben was inactive for a game, they might well go with Dixon to start and keep Batch as the backup like they did last year (until Dixon got hurt). I suppose Batch might retire this year, but I'm good with Lefty/Dixon. Leftwich has to be one of the premiere backups in the league, and Dixon would have to be one of the premiere 3rd stringers. Both have game experience and tons of time in the system, and different strengths. Hard for me to believe a late-round rookie would be able to honestly beat out either of them, unless the guy's a total steal.

    I don't agree with your analysis of Johnson, and I think he's hurting this team more than he helps it. Sometimes his blocks are fine, but for the most part they are no better than anyone else could do, and -- he can't run the ball and is no threat to catch -- he offers nothing else to the team! He needs to be either replaced by a real fullback (my vote) or just taken out of there and replaced with one of the weapons sitting on the bench (a RB, a WR, Saunders). I mostly agree with your RB analysis. I'm okay with a 2:1 ratio of touches for Mendenhall and Redman. I don't place nearly as much blame on Mendy as a lot of people do for his struggles. His average is so low because on half of his runs he's stuffed for no gain. But there's literally nowhere for him to go on those runs. It's not like there's a hole and he passes on it because he's scared, like people suggest. He does not get good blocking on most runs. The same could be said for Redman, who is a little tougher to bring down but not the big-time threat that Rashard is. I get that people love how Redman always gets an extra yard, but they seem to forget that Mendenhall does that too. I think the problem is that Redman is SO good at it that he's spoiled us, and Mendenhall looks weak by comparison. Mendenhall is a big, tough back who is hard to bring down, breaks tackles, and falls forward. He's not what needs to be fixed, the line is.

    He should be #2 already and Johnson should be gone, as explained above. I think Miller only has two real drops, and some others were very tough catches. People are talking about him like there's something wrong with him, which I don't get. I guess two drops is two more than he usually has.

    I doubt it. They aren't token catches, they matter in the game (except the quick screens, but he's always done those). Gotta keep all the young kids. The league is still sleeping on Sanders like they slept on Brown last year. And Wallace takes the coverage. Once Sanders is healthy for a stretch and emerges, teams are gonna be very frustrated about who to cover (+Miller, Saunders, Cotchery, Mendenhall...)

    You're quick to give next year's RT job to Gilbert. Colon will be back, healthy, and under a long-term contract. We've all wanted to see him tried out at RG, but so far the team has exclusively used him at RT and has said that's where he belongs. And he's very good at it, so it would be foolish to drop such talent from a line that needs more talent. If Colon will play RG and be good at it, fine, but more likely I think the solution is to move Gilbert. Coming out of college everyone said he could NOT play the left side in the NFL, but after seeing him these last 12+ games, I think he can. If Starks stays, perhaps Gilbert can play RG. Either way, OG needs to be a top 64 pick for us next year.

    Worilds has stepped in on both sides and played very well for someone with so few reps. Some had already written him off as a bust, but I think it's safe to say he's not, and with Carter waiting around to take over his job as #3 when Worilds takes over for Harrison, we can finally stop drafting outside linebackers.

    Polamalu may be having a subpar season for Polamalu, but he's still having a great season. He dropped one INT and could have had a couple of one-handers, but he's still been all over the field for us making plays as usual. Don't get spoiled, even on a bad year he is a legitimate candidate for defensive MVP. Taylor has been mostly great with a few rough patches, but still his best year ever by far. I'm excited about Brown for next preseason, and don't forget about Cortez Allen, who is forcing his way on the field despite missing pretty much all of training camp and 3 preseason games. If Gay could play to the best of his abilities at all times, he'd be average. So fingers crossed we get that out of him down the stretch.

    Agree about Sep, I liked him and it is a real shame. Kapinos is the best filler-inner we've ever had, so I'm glad he's around and know he'll get a chance to stay long-term. I think Polamalu played almost that entire first half. His first play out Tennessee got like a 70 yard play to Kenny Britt and they scored shortly after that. He'd basically shut down their entire team to that point.

    Great post. I agree with your schedule breakdown, too. We can run the table for sure.
     
  7. WWW

    WWW Writing Team

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    Nice to read your comments and analysis, HugeSnack. Let me agree and disagree on some topics:

    I guess Batch will be retired after the season, Dixon a FA and not sure about Leftwich's contract, but he's been injured often. Also, doesn't seem to be the same guy from when we played against him @Jax.

    Yes, we do need a real FB. Something like what Kreider was years ago. Mendy will be ok, and don't misunderstand my comments: he's our starter. But he's on a slump and his style doesn't get any favor by our weak OL blocking. Most of the time he gets hit before getting to the line.

    Yes, Miller will be OK. He's great TE who was had 2 real drops and some difficult throws that he couldn't convert into catches. He had set a high standard, so I guess people expected him to be superman on some throws. Saunders: so far so good, but still needs more throws to be properly evaluated IMO. Since preseason he has shown great hands and mobility for his size.

    Hope you are right here. Hines is a classy guy, a model four our young WRs and a fan favorite.

    Ok, my mistake here. Forgot completely about Colon. Gilbert has played above average (at least, for last couple of years' steelers oline standards). Also, not sure about Colon's contract situation. But you get the idea here: We do need help at both G, either from moving our current RT or injured RT, or to be adressed with a pick on the Draft.

    Agree, we do need to stot using OLB draft picks. Can't count how many we've had since Coach Tomlin is our HC. I'd like to see more of Carter before assuming he has -at least- Worild's potential.

    Polamalu was DPOY last year. This year he's had his moments, like @IND when he scored, or his questionable play vs NE (pushing the ball to the endzone). As you say, he's been playing at a high level, but not for his standard.

    We WILL run the table!

    :herewego!:
     
  8. oldschool

    oldschool Well-Known Member

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    Good read boys! I wish I had some disagreements to get involved, you guys pretty much covered my opinions. We have all this talent and can't put it together to be dominating consistantly. We have so much talent that as inconsistent as we have been, there are only 3 losses.

    I was just talking to a friend who is a Tampa Bay fan. We basically had many of the same gripes about our team then his girlfriend asked what our record was. The opposite of them!!! I had to laugh. It then put a lot of things in perspective.
     
  9. Wardismvp

    Wardismvp Well-Known Member

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    We have played 2 good games out of all of these games. 2!
     
  10. HugeSnack

    HugeSnack Well-Known Member

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    Batch and Dixon are question marks. The more I think about it, the more I think Dixon will probably be gone too. He wants to start somewhere. He probably won't get signed as a starter anywhere, but he'll definitely be able to do better than #3 or #4. He could land on a team with a weak QB situation and work his way up. That's not happening here and he knows it. Too bad, because I feel comfortable with him managing our offense for someone that far down the depth chart. I think Leftwich has been good when he's had to play for us. Injuries are starting to become a concern, but if he's healthy I think he's a top backup. The only thing that bugs me about him is the sacks he takes. They're worse than Ben's. But MAN can he throw the ball. I trust him going deep to Wallace more than I trust Ben.

    I would kill for a Kreider-like guy, even one not half as good as Kreider. I just don't get what they see in Johnson. Surely Redman could lead block as well as him, and he's also a threat to run and catch! Not to mention he's smarter with better instincts.

    Yeah, we still need more tape on Saunders. Just one more reason to bump him up to #2! Can't wait to see this guy progress over time. Maybe a Marcedes Lewis type? I don't know.

    Colon just signed a 5 year deal before this season. Something like $29 million. I read he could have had 3 or 4 million more by leaving but gave us the "hometown discount." Shame we have to pay him this year for nothing. He came back strong from his achilles injury, I think he can do the same for his tricep. He'll even be able to stay in shape.

    Well, he's used a lot of picks on OLB, but with the exception of Davis they were all successes (Carter pending). Woodley, Worilds, Carter. Forgot about Gibson, who is a total mystery, but he was thriving in our system before inexplicably getting the ax. Timmons and Sylvester are two more OLBs that we moved inside, one successfully and one TBD. We do need to see more of Carter and Sylvester, but so far so good. Davis was a bust from day one, and I feel like we all knew it. I don't get that feeling with these guys. That's a lot of picks, but almost all hits. If Carter does work out, we won't have to pick there again for years and years. We can use those picks to whiff on linemen and cornerbacks.

    :herewego!:
     
  11. mac daddyo

    mac daddyo Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, we still need more tape on Saunders. Just one more reason to bump him up to #2! Can't wait to see this guy progress over time. Maybe a Marcedes Lewis type? I don't know.

    Colon just signed a 5 year deal before this season. Something like $29 million. I read he could have had 3 or 4 million more by leaving but gave us the
    Shame we have to pay him this year for nothing. He came back strong from his achilles injury, I think he can do the same for his tricep. He'll even be able to stay in shape.

    Well, he's used a lot of picks on OLB, but with the exception of Davis they were all successes (Carter pending). Woodley, Worilds, Carter. Forgot about Gibson, who is a total mystery, but he was thriving in our system before inexplicably getting the ax. Timmons and Sylvester are two more OLBs that we moved inside, one successfully and one TBD. We do need to see more of Carter and Sylvester, but so far so good. Davis was a bust from day one, and I feel like we all knew it. I don't get that feeling with these guys. That's a lot of picks, but almost all hits. If Carter does work out, we won't have to pick there again for years and years. We can use those picks to whiff on linemen and cornerbacks.

    :herewego!:[/quote:15fzgwwc]

    i'm not so sure it was a hometown discount. from what i read at the time, the only team to make an offer for him was chicago, and they said it was only for a guard spot. he didn't want to play guard there.
    as for the season so far, we still haven't put together a dominant preformance yet. last game was the closest i have seen. i do know that our young players are getting better every week, with playing time and i think most have opened the eyes of some on this coaching staff to that idea. this may make they're transition of the older guys a little easier when the time comes. :cool:
     
  12. bigsteelerfaninky

    bigsteelerfaninky Well-Known Member

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    I am happy to go 3-1 hope the next 4 we are 4-0
     
  13. ballhair

    ballhair Well-Known Member

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    Agree with all the above. If we run the table and get into the playoffs, any success we have will depend on Ben taken it to the next level.
     
  14. WWW

    WWW Writing Team

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    Yes. That, and you-know-who not making a mess with our Offensive playcalling!
     

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