Najees Market Set

Nobody is saying Harris has no speed.... his issue is his explosiveness from a standstill. Bell was the complete opposite. He didn't have the top speed that Harris has, but he was 0 to top speed almost instantly. He was incredibly explosive. He was patient to the hole, but as soon as it was there a foot was in the ground and he exploded through it at top speed. Essentially Bell is a slow top speed with big explosion, while Harris has a faster top speed and no explosion. These aren't really comparable players, and Bell was SUBSTANTIALLY better than Harris has ever been in his career.

"Known commodity" is both a plus and a minus though, right? Like we know he's an NFL player, but we also know that he is just an ok one. For the money he will likely get, we need to do better. We are 100% certain at this point that Warren is a solid back. We've never seen him carry a full, lone back, workload, but we likely wouldn't ask him to. He's a proven commodity at 9 carries a game, and with his stature and running style its a very safe bet that he could easily handle another 3-5 per game. Easily. We will just have to find another back to pair him with that can get us 4+ YPC and handle 8ish touches a game. There's plenty of guys in the league (and future drafts) that can do that. We will essentially replace Harris' output and do so at a fraction of the price. Is there risk involved? Yes. It is also risky to over pay for an ok player just because we are scared to try an alternative. It seems that the FO is comfortable not settling for overpaying for the status quo and will seek out a better option or a similar option at a lesser price.

 

I hope lots of Steelers break out big time in 2024. Some are more likely than others. I'd be more than happy to see Najee have a big year.

 

Because they still need help at WR, CB, DL, and maybe QB but let's draft an RB in the 2nd or 3rd round .

 

Could go both ways. Can Najee handle all the workload by himself? Injuries, in which hampered him in beginning of his career. Like I said could go both ways. Me personally feel better with the 2 headed monster we have.

 

Seventh in the league in rushing with a career-high in average per carry despite a limited passing game and an offensive line that couldn't come close to doing the job the first half of the season and you think he's just okay. That's funny.

 

Injuries is misleading and inaccurate. He had one injury, a foot problem that slowed him for the first half of one season. Otherwise, he has been incredibly durable.

 

it's not about his market value, it's about if he fit's this offense. not all RB's are created equally. they want to see who can operate in this offense and it will be worth a couple of million more to see. if he's not a good fit we save 7 milllion, if he does fit we spend a couple of more million to keep him next year and lock him up. if he doesn't fit, why lock us into him no matter the cost this year. it's pretty simple. this is not going to be the last 3 years offense. they will pay and keep the players that fit this system. TE,RB,WR,OL, period.

 

Over the last 3 yrs, Najee has had more carries than any other NFL back, besides Derrick Henry, who had 14 more.

So he’s getting his carries, The issue is he avgs less than 4 yd/att, that low for a ‘feature’ back. Blame the line, blame injuries, blame Canada, but I think this is the source of the dissatisfaction with Najee. He ain’t bad, but some expected better.

 

it IS about fit and scheme. some trust in what AS is doing has to be given here.

JB36 may not have fit in this, I DON'T KNOW - we WILL KNOW more soon!!!

Here is MY BET:

this offense will be WAY MORE productive than the last 2 season with LOSER Pickett and LOSER Canada. We will average more than , what 15.9 ppg, or some crap number? The D will be more rested and play even better with LESS 3 and outs. I expect us be ranked somewhere between 15 and say, 22, in offense rankings, by seasons end.

D will be Top 5.

Let's see where that lands us in January.

I HOPE HARRIS has 1600 yards in total offense this year. I doubt he will but I HOPE he does.

 

Harris was 20th among RBs in YPC and 15th among RB's in YPG, all while being 6th among RB's in total carries. He was outside the top 10 in TD's and 23rd in Rushing Success %..... He has a lot of yards simply because he gets a lot of carries. He got his career high YPG, but it is still fairly low. The bar was pretty low when his career high prior to this season was 3.9 YPG (and his career average is still sub 4.0). You have to remember that prior to the Seattle game, Najee was sub 4 YPC (again) and had 1/2 his season total of TD's in the last 3 games. He played great the last 2 weeks of the regular season. That's awesome. I don't want to discredit 2 of the few really good games he's had as a pro, but the reality is that he is a guy who is pedestrian for large stretches of time then bangs out a 25 carry 100 yard game twice a season and everyone thinks he's a stud again.

There are a few stats that he looks like a high quality RB (carries and yards), but when you look at the overall picture it doesn't paint a narrative that Najee is a high quality back. He's an ok back that gets high volume to boost his numbers up. I get that our offense has been limited (to say the least) the last 2 years, but Warren has played in the same limited offense and behind the same limited line and out performed Harris. He's OK. There really isn't a compelling argument to argue otherwise.

 

there is for hard head cases here......

 

Well FA exists too... maybe instead of paying Najee, they can put that money towards a new WR or DL and draft a 2nd or 3rd round RB? We have a much better shot at getting a quality RB in the 3rd round than we do getting a quality CB. Lots of avenues to fill holes on your team (and you'll never fill all of them at the same time).

 

Our offense SHOULD be way more productive. Getting rid of the two biggest losers on our offense helps (Pickett, Canada). We don't have to be a high-octane offense... We could be good enough to make a run with 22ppg. Our defense (assuming healthy) should be among the league's best. If we can get decent enough play at the QB position and we run the ball like we should, there's no reason to think that those numbers aren't attainable.

 

this is my feeling as well, all else being equal and avoiding catastrophic injury.

 

He averaged 4.1 yards per carry last season, when he wasn't a rookie in a bad offense and he wasn't limited for half the year by a foot injury.

 

Touchdowns are a function of the piss-poor offense he played in. That also affected his average per carry. Cherry-picking which part of the season you want to focus on is misleading. The only reason it is worthy of discussion is that Harris played his best again late in the season. He averaged 4.1 per carry for the season.

Looking only at the volume and ignoring the poor offensive coordinator, poor quarterback play, and poor-to-middling offensive line that held him back so far in his career is also misleading.

 

If Arthur Smith can't figure out how to use him and adapt, the team has made yet another poor assistant coaching hire. Good coaches adapt to what they have. Leaving themselves with yet another question mark going into 2025 was not a wise decision.

 

You actually don't think Najee would have been better than He is..if He played with the same team that Bell played with???
Let me let you in on a little secret. Most of the RBs that played during that time looked great. They should.....they faced the league least of men in the box. Ever wondered why DeAngelo Williams led the league in rushing while Bell was out???
It's a big big big difference between being a great weapon on great O, and being the main weapon that teams gear for.
I guess you forgot how bad Bells average per carry got when He was the main weapon teams geared for, and amazingly its stayed low until.....wow .....you guessed it.....He played with Mahomes.....where again he's wasn't the weapon that teams geared up for in the main.
Wow I just looked....it's amazing.....all the rbs that played between 2014- 2018....had good yards per carry.....
Hell Jordan Todman in 2015 had 5.5 ypc....

 

agreed in part.

hard to compare RBs from one era to another.

LevBell was special, I do feel that. More talent than Najee, IMO. But I know some don't feel that way!!!

we RAN HIS WHEELS off in 5 seasons - that and 2 serious injuries (it was 2 , correct?)

that was the end of the line for him. by his last year, he had clearly lost a full step. When he went to the JETS, he was DONE.

DeAngelo was SO FUN to watch that year, TOO. YES - the SCHEME, the OLINE and Ben able to keep D's honest all played a role in that success.

 

I would agree to an extent, but other players still had better YPC in bad offenses. James Conner played on a bad offense (1.5 PPG better than us) and had 7TD and 5.0YPC and did so on nearly 50 less carries. Henry had more carries, a higher YPC and 12 TD's (on a team with the same PPG at the Steelers). I'm not focusing on the last two nor am I cherry-picking, just pointing out that two big games saved him yet another sub 4 YPC season. That is a fact. The average is the average however he gets it, just he saved another poor season with good performances to end the year.

It is crazy though that Harris' best games have been in weeks 17 and 18 in every season. In those 6 games he's amassed 4 of his 6 career 100 yard performances and 5 of his 22 career rushing TD's. Really just shows you how miserable he's been in his other 47 career NFL games. I did mention that he's played for bad offenses, but the other back (Warren) has performed better in the same offense/personnel/scheme. I get that comparing offenses and situations between teams makes it hard, but the only apples to apples comparison it to Warren and it doesn't look good for Najee.

Again this isn't to say I think Najee sucks. I just think there are 15-20 backs in the league that could do what he does (or better) with the same volume and opportunity. I don't think he is a special or high end player, and I don't think his caliber of play is worth what he is likely to get paid in the open market. I don't fault the FO for thinking they can do better.

 

- Maybe, maybe not.... We will never know since it is purely speculation.
- Deangelo Williams was an accomplished back in his own right. He was just made available due to his age. He apparently still had something left in the tank.
- Najee Harris isn't the MAIN weapon teams gear up for. That is crazy talk.
- This makes no sense. Bell WAS the target the opposition geared for. Teams would put their best corner on AB and realize he was gonna get what he gets. They tried to stop Bell... though he averaged 4.54 YPC during his prime and not 3.9 YPC.
- The KC garbage is ridiculous. He was 28, past his prime, and a back up at that time. No correlation to speak of.
- THIS IS MY MAIN POINT. Tons of backs can average good YPC. Lots of backs can do what Najee does.

 

teams don't lose sleep thinking 'oh no, we face Najee tomorrow'

 

It is easier to maintain a higher average per carry in a bad offense, so Conner carrying the ball 50 fewer times doesn't help your case. Also, he had Kyler Murray for eight games. Despite his erratic play, Murray still draws more attention from a defense than anybody the Steelers had at quarterback last season.

That said, you provided exactly one example of a back in a bad offense who had a better average per carry. Even if you grant that Conner is better, a dubious assumption given that he lacks the track record of durability, that still doesn't come close to justifying your assumption that there are 15-to-20 backs in the league who could do what Harris does or better.

Also, why are you bringing his potential value on the open market into this? I never said they should try to re-sign him after next season. In fact, I have argued against it. My point was that they should have kept him from getting to the open market. I'm saying it was a mistake not to use the fifth-year option, which is completely different from what you suggested I was arguing.