Jarvis Jones... Another Look.... Not so Good.

As it seems more likely that Jarvis Jones could fall to our pick at #17, I've been watching more and more tape of him in isolation. I am not sure that I like him even at #17. I had been very high on him through a combination of : 1) recalling the splash plays that he made last fall when I watched a few Georgia games (especially the Florida and Nebraska games); 2) watching him in isolation in 2012 games against Missouri (great performance), Florida and Nebraska; and 3) all of the "analyst" talk about what a great player he is. The only real negative video that I had seen to date was the Alabama game where he was less than impressive, but still made a few splash plays.

Well, I did a bit more watching this AM. I watched the Auburn and South Carolina games from 2012, and have posted links below. Be your own judges, but the more I dig, the less I like. In these two games, I though he looked absolutely awful even though when you look at the stat lines you'll see 2 sacks against Auburn and 1 against South Carolina. Against Auburn, he was consistently manhandled by a fullback #35 and a few tight ends that we'll never see in the NFL. Against South Carolina he was pretty much taken out of any play by whoever they decided to put on him. One positive though, he did drop into coverage a few times and in each case he looked like he was in the pocket of the guy he was covering until they went off screen.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x4hfGQMmMKo

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eyBFYl9W2yE

Honestly, I'm not sure what to think at this point. I know that the talking heads on NFL Network and the online "analysts" are gaga over him, but I see a HIGH percentage of his plays either coming from scheming (where the offense doesn't properly account for him) or coverage sacks.

 

Everyone has flaws and games that they perform poorly. Everyone in this draft has produced bad tape. He's a legitimate 10+ sack per year player in the NFL, if he stays healthy. That's my biggest concern. Can he perform for 2 contracts? That's all that can be expected in today's NFL, IMO..

 

I agree that every 3-4 OLB prospect in this draft has produced bad tape. However, not every Top 20 player in this draft has tape that's nearly as bad as those 2 games. In those 2 games, he got 3 sacks and only 1 of the 3 was actually a good play - I think it was the last play on the Auburn tape where he pushed the left tackle back and then ripped underneath him to get the QB in the pocket. Don't get me wrong, I don't think that Jones is a bad player. I think he has great football instincts and makes big plays at big moments. However, I think a lot of his numbers are a product of the system (and have seen on film where at least half of his sacks in 2012 were on plays where he was either unblocked or got to the QB 4+ seconds after the snap because of good coverage by his teammates). At pick #17 I don't want a player who is made better by his teammates and system, I want a player who makes his teammates better. I am not 100% sold that Jones is that guy. I am basing my opinion 100% on film.

I really don't like this draft class at all for 3-4 OLBs.

 

We just disagree on the OLB class in the draft Elvis. I think it's talented and deep. Even Mingo (who I don't like for us) has an incredible burst with a pretty nice spin move to go with it. They all have some question marks but overall I really like the group. It's a good mix of high-ceiling guys and productive players, IMO.

 

Oh, I certainly agree that there are guys with upside. Jamie Collins oozes upside. However, when I watch him on tape it looks like to me like on every other play he just stands up and looks around for 1-2 seconds before he diagnoses the play and gets going. His raw talent to play the position is fantastic, but I don't see it translate to tape consistently. Is it something that can be corrected by coaching, or does he just not have the head to play the game? I don't know the answer... and I see similar things from the high-upside guys out there. All of the pass rushers that I like, both on film and in terms of potential, are more 4-3 DE types than 3-4 OLB types IMO. I also think the same thing applies to interior D linemen. There are some great 4-3 DTs in this draft, but I don't see any killer 3-4 prospects.

 

Its unfortunate that Ogletree continued his off the field problems into the off season. I really believe he would have been an outstanding pick for us at #17. With last year's debacle, I would have to assume he is most certainly off the Steeler's radar.

I still am not a believer that Jarvis Jones will fall to us at #17. And I know people will say that Decastro fell to us last year and noone expected that. While true, OLB is viewed COMPLETELY different than OG. Jones is the best pass rusher in this draft - Period. If by some miracle he does fall to #17, the Steelers should and will be ready to scoop him up.

 

I'm not as hard on him as Gil. I think he's clearly a 1st round talent, but I don't see him as a clear cut best player available at Pick #17. Gil questions his size and speed. I have no doubts about his speed on tape (he plays WAY faster than a 4.9 40), but I do think his size and strength have been very limiting factors when working against tackles who are athletic enough to handle his speed moves. I haven't seen him have much success pushing the pocket with power. The worst left tackles that he will go up against in the pros will be comparable to the best left tackles that he went up against in college. They will not be easy prey to his speed moves, and I question whether he'll have enough success against them to validate selection at pick #17. When I watch his games, I see a guy with enough instincts and talent to be a good pro, but I don't see play that equals the stats. Many of his sacks were scheme sacks or coverage sacks. To his credit, he did show the tenacity and quickness to get those sacks, but he has definitely been heavily supported by his teammates and scheming by the coaches.

I'm truly on the fence with him. If we take him at #17, I will probably have a neutral reaction. I won't be overjoyed because I don't think he's the Top 10 talent that many make him out to be, but I won't be bummed out because he fits a primary need and shows enough on tape to at least be a productive pro - even if he never quite lives up to his pick #17 draft position.