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Interesting take on 1st round QB's

Discussion in 'The Bill Nunn Draft Room' started by Vox Ferrum, Feb 25, 2021.

  1. Vox Ferrum

    Vox Ferrum Well-Known Member

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    Greenie had an interesting stat today, ot the 22 QB's taken in the 1sr round 2009-2016 (8 drafts) only one (Mahomes) has won a SB, only two others (Newton and Groff) have been to a SB There may be other periods with greater success, but it really does show just how hard it is to evaluate talent, and more so getting that talent in the right system for development and surrounding players. Of course the list had names that probably should never have been taken, but it still is amazing how quickly that 'guy' who will lead you for a decade can fall off the map.

    This year Kiper (I know, I know) has the top 5 QB's going with the first 9 picks (a lot of trading). If you are there and need a QB you are compelled to grab one, yet history shows that most will never reach the status equal to that draft.
     
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  2. Jball

    Jball Well-Known Member

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    Sort of misleading though. At the time, the landscape was being ruled by a bunch of, not only 1st rounders, but Hall of Famers. Such as P. Manning(with multiple teams), Brady, Ben, Rodgers, Brees, and Eli. Throw Matt Ryan in there as well(1st round pick). That was a magical era for QB's.

    All of those guys, except for Brady, were taken within the first 32 picks. You always have later round guys around. Brady, Wilson, Prescott.

    I could say, did you know that in the last 20 years a QB picked after pick #198 in the draft has made it to the SB on 10 separate occasions, and even won 7 of those. That proves you can grab a QB any old time.

    I've listed the main starters by division. Only non-1st rd QB's will be in parentheses.And I consider Brees a 1st rounder(32nd overall)

    afc N- Baker Mayfield, Joe burrow, Lamar Jackson, Ben Roethlisberger(4 of 4)
    afc E- Tua, J. Allen, Darnold, Newton(4 of 4)
    afc W- Justin Herbert, Pat Mahomes, (Lock 2nd rd), (Derek Carr 2nd rd)(2 of 4)
    afc S- Rivers, Watson, Tannehill, (G. Minshew 6th rd)(3 of 4)
    nfc N- Rodgers, Mitch Trubisky, Matthew Stafford, (Kirk Cousins 2nd rd)(3 of 4)
    nfc S - Teddy Bridgewater, Matt Ryan, Brees, (Brady 6th rd)(3 of 4)
    nfc W - Goff, Kyler Murray , (Wilson 3rd rd), (Jimmy Garoppolo 2nd rd)(2 of 4)
    nfc E - Wentz, Daniels, Haskins/A.Smith, (Prescott 3rd rd)(3 of 4)

    24 of 32 are 1st rounders. So 75% of starters are 1st rounders. Don't let anybody bs you that it doesn't matter.

    Out of the 8 that aren't 1st rounders, 50% of them are 2nd rd.

    Now, should all the QB's that get drafted in the 1st deserve it? No. But, unfortunately, there's such an emphasis on QB's that it creates an unbelievable warped supply and demand ratio.
     
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  3. S.T.D

    S.T.D Well-Known Member

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    I've been trying 2 preach this. I guess I go about it all wrong. My Family always said I didn't know how 2 talk 2 other people. :hmm:
     
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  4. S.T.D

    S.T.D Well-Known Member

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    I believe the last part you said was what he was getting at. At least that's how I took it.
     
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  5. Vox Ferrum

    Vox Ferrum Well-Known Member

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    I am not suggesting taking a QB in the first has no merit, it was reported on another program that if there are 5 QB's taken then half the teams in the league will have 1st round QB's taken in their rookie deals. We see the quality of some of them already, but you also see how quickly a career can be derailed. No doubt that some of these newer QB's will be in the SB in the near future, the numbers themselves will see to that, I will as interested to see how that 2nd contract will start affecting the teams that will be paying out the contracts that affect huge cap numbers.
     
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  6. mac daddyo

    mac daddyo Well-Known Member

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    Since super bowls began, 55 qbs playing in it were 1st round picks and 52 were not. :cool:
     
  7. Maddog78

    Maddog78 Well-Known Member

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    Exactly. If someone did this analysis by draft round, the 1st would be the overwhelming winner in terms of QB success rate.

    It's a "study" lacking context.
     
  8. Blast Furnace

    Blast Furnace Staff Member Mod Team

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  9. biggbunch68

    biggbunch68

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    "I've had two different scouts say to me that he's Mason Rudolph." -
    @RossTuckerNFL
    on Kyle Trask.

    :shrug: Sounds like i might pass if he was to fall..:roflmao:
     
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  10. Blast Furnace

    Blast Furnace Staff Member Mod Team

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    I don’t know what those people are talking about. Trask comes from a pro ready offense and isn’t rattled by pressure, in fact PFF says he is almost to oblivious to it at times. Rudolph didn’t run a pro ready offense and is horrible under pressure.

    Trask has shown great improvement in a short amount of time, experience could be a knock against him but on the other hand, with how well he has progressed, just think how much better he can get if he stays on that trajectory.

    I actually see a lot of Ben in him (STD is going to come hard after me for that) and I just saw this scouting report that made the same comparison.

    https://nflmocks.com/2020/09/29/kyle-trask-2021-nfl-draft-conventional/
     
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  11. biggbunch68

    biggbunch68

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    Idont know anything abt the kid, i just posted what i saw earlier
     
  12. Blast Furnace

    Blast Furnace Staff Member Mod Team

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    I know, I was giving you a counter view.
     
  13. mac daddyo

    mac daddyo Well-Known Member

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    jones, trask, mond, book are guys i wouldn't mind seeing behind rudolph for the near future. so much has to do with what we would put around them. so much has to do with how we adjust to them with an offense and away from running a ben only type of offense. i think that is the biggest downfall here. i think we could win in the future with this kind of players but the staff would have to adjust. the whole offensive approach would have to be fixed. probably without MT. we probably won't see that with it designed around ben. can canada have the vision to make that happen down the road? good question. if he's allowed i think so. we have to stop thinking of the future as a ben first offense and change it's setting when he's finally gone. then i think we could make something of these backups. :cool:
     
  14. Blast Furnace

    Blast Furnace Staff Member Mod Team

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    Not in rd 1 but I can see them drafting him for sure.

     
  15. S.T.D

    S.T.D Well-Known Member

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    You got that right. LoL.
    Ben only wishes He had that O- line , Wrs, and Defense in college. Dude I have watch every SEC game in the last 5 years...Except not all of Tennessee, or Vanderbilt. Matters who they played. Trask only looks good 2 most because how bad F. Frank's was before him.
    Now M.Jones is the real deal. I'm just worried about his size. Kinda light.
     
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  16. S.T.D

    S.T.D Well-Known Member

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    I'd take him in the low 2nd, but I don't think he'll be there. I definitely wouldn't take him in the 1st. Lot greats will still be around in the 1st. No sense wasting a 1st on a 2nd - 3rd round talent. IMO.
    We did that with T. Edmunds ;)
     
    Last edited: Mar 6, 2021
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  17. Maddog78

    Maddog78 Well-Known Member

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    He's got a noodle arm and can't move.
     
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  18. Jball

    Jball Well-Known Member

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    And we already have one of those.
     
  19. Blast Furnace

    Blast Furnace Staff Member Mod Team

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    Eh, that’s bs. He evades pressure, thats what you need.

    Bens draft profile would make you laugh, said he wasn’t mobile enough either.

    His arms not the greatest, give you that.
     
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  20. Mike T

    Mike T Well-Known Member

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    As much as you need a good qb to win, it still takes a team. Bad organizations ruin what might have been a good QB. Stubborn Coaches who refuse to mold their scheme to a QB or teams talents are also to blame. And then there is the simple fact that translating from college to the pros is not a easy thing to do.

    Now my Third point. Anything that idiot Greenie says has about as much value as my dog making Football decisions or analysis. I honestly don't know how that guy keeps a Sports job.
     

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