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Good day in the standings for the Steelers…

Discussion in 'Steelers Talk' started by steel_ben7, Oct 11, 2021.

  1. steel machine

    steel machine Well-Known Member

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    That is my big game of week 7. Sure the hell hope it's televised in my area. I'm worried the Giant game will trump it.
     
  2. Formerscribe

    Formerscribe Well-Known Member

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    Green font or are you one of those people who forgot what actually happened in most of those 11 consecutive victories?
     
  3. S.T.D

    S.T.D Well-Known Member

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    Spanked the Chargers, and L. Jackson had 1td, 2 picks 167 yards passing, and You are bragging about Lamar. LoL. You do know He is in the tops of the league with a few others with turnovers every game this year.
     
  4. S.T.D

    S.T.D Well-Known Member

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    Exactly. Half the guys they are missing are backups.
     
  5. Maddog78

    Maddog78 Well-Known Member

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    So the other half...
     
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  6. S.T.D

    S.T.D Well-Known Member

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    So when everyone in the league has their full complement of starters playing....Let Me know.
    I don't wish Injuries on anyone, but I Will not feel sorry for them.
     
  7. Maddog78

    Maddog78 Well-Known Member

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    Agreed, but they're missing more key players than the Steelers, have played a tougher schedule, and are 2 games ahead. I thought they were lucky a couple weeks ago but if they don't start losing soon they're running away with the North.
     
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  8. S.T.D

    S.T.D Well-Known Member

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    I will bet You anything they split with us. Also like You said they have been luck Quite a few times. Surely that will run out. Also We won the Division last Year...Yet 2 other teams from our division still made it 2 the playoffs. More than one way 2 skin a cat.
    Don't know who came up with that distasteful quote, but it seems appropriate. LoL
     
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  9. Steel Hog

    Steel Hog Well-Known Member

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    Good teams do win close games when they are playing another good team. Most of the NFL is good football most of the time. There are some teams each year that are exceptions of course that will challenge this.
     
  10. santeesteel

    santeesteel

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    I believe I was saying I’d give the nod to Buffalo and didn’t you see the Baltimore defense? Do you not speak English? One week does not a season make…..
     
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  11. SteelersFanIrl

    SteelersFanIrl Well-Known Member

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    It’s not even half, seriously look at their IR list, a handful of starters followed by a bunch of nobodies.

    Steelers have had Tuitt, Alualu and Banner out all year and have had a lot of starters missing multiple games with soft tissue injuries, Juju has gone on IR now as well. I’d bet you the Steelers have had more cumulative losses than the Ravens in terms of starters missing games. Browns are in even worse shape again at this stage.

    Ravens are the best team in the AFC North and will probably win it but their injury crisis is being exaggerated in my opinion.
     
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  12. Formerscribe

    Formerscribe Well-Known Member

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    Peters, Dobbins, and Stanley are difficult losses. The rest really aren't that significant.

    What they haven't had are games like what the Steelers had against the Raiders and Bengals, when an entire unit was decimated by injuries. Pittsburgh goes at least 1-1 in those two games with something resembling a healthy roster, but that didn't happen.

    I don't want to hear about good teams finding a way. The Chiefs handed them that game with the late fumble. The officials handed them the game against the Lions with the missed penalty. Tucker is amazing, but he wasn't making that kick from 71 yards away. Sure, they pulled off an amazing comeback against the Colts, but they had a hell of a lot of help with Indy's kicker missing an extra point and a field goal while trying to play through a hip injury and their secondary being down to practice squad guys by the end of the game. If Blankenship makes either of those kicks, ones he normally makes, the rally falls short. That isn't counting the blocked field goal.
     
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  13. SteelersFanIrl

    SteelersFanIrl Well-Known Member

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    Exactly. They are a couple of lucky breaks away from 3-3 or even 2-4

    That’s how it goes sometimes. They are missing a couple of starters, much like other teams. This idea that they are beating all the odds is not accurate imo
     
    Last edited: Oct 20, 2021
  14. steelersrule6

    steelersrule6 Well-Known Member

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    Well not many people picked the Steelers to win the division, it was all about Cleveland and Baltimore.
     
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  15. steel_ben7

    steel_ben7 Well-Known Member

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    I mean the Ravens don’t have a ton of tough games the next 5 weeks they play the Bengals at home this week, then the bye week, then they play the Vikings at home, play at Miami on a Thursday night, then at Chicago and then home to Cleveland before playing the Steelers on December 5th here in Pittsburgh. So I don’t see a ton of losses there on that schedule. At worst they probably go at least 3-2 in those 5 games which would put them at 8-3 going into their game with the Steelers here on December 5th.

    Can the Steelers get to 7-4 by that game and pull within one game of the Ravens is the question which I think they have a shot of doing if they win their next 3 games at Cleveland, and home with Chicago and Detroit and then split those road games at the Chargers and then at the Bengals the following week. The Browns game on Halloween now with all the Browns injuries to Mayfield, Chubb, and Hunt has turned into a could win this game to should win this game for the Steelers. It’s really turned into a game they really need to win if they wanna have any hope of hanging around in this division race with both the Ravens and Bengals.
     
  16. Hanratty#5

    Hanratty#5 Well-Known Member

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    The Browns announced this afternoon that Mayfield along with Chubb are out against the Broncos. Case Keenum will get the start tomorrow night.
     
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  17. SteelersFanIrl

    SteelersFanIrl Well-Known Member

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    Now this is an injury crisis, good heavens

     
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  18. Maddog78

    Maddog78 Well-Known Member

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    When they were up on Tennessee at halftime they were the best team in the NFL to that point. Then the cracks started showing, were never repaired, slowly got worse and eventually the structure collapsed. They threw a couple coats of paint on it in the offseason, but need to rebuild at several positions.
     
  19. KMM

    KMM Well-Known Member

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    I don't think you're fully understanding. Let me rephrase.

    The outcomes of close games, in any sport, are essentially based on luck. Actual ability is reflected in avoiding close games. The correlation between record and point differential, in the NFL or otherwise, is quite robust. There's no such thing as good teams win close games. Every team no matter how good, wins and loses about 50% of their close games. The good teams have less of close games compared to average teams. Oh sure, there will be one or two teams each year that significantly under or over produce vs their point differential, but its the exception and usually the next year they regress to the mean.

    We're only 6 games into the season and you can already see the correlation between point differential and record playing out in most of the divisions. After 17 games it be very clear.
     
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  20. MeanJoeBlue

    MeanJoeBlue Well-Known Member

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    You are making claims that are not very compelling.

    For avoiding close games...
    "Good" teams
    Baltimore (5-1) has 4 games decided by 7 points or less.
    Tampa Bay (5-1) has 3 games.

    "Average" teams
    Denver (3-3) has 0 games decided by 7 points or less.
    Chicago (3-3) has 1 game.


    For point differential having a "robust" correlation with record...
    There will always be some correlation between record and point differential.
    (A team that has won every game will by definition have a positive PD, while a team with all losses must have a negative PD.)

    This year through 6 games, Buffalo has 20 more PD than Arizona, yet has 2 more losses.

    Tennessee 4-2 +5 diff
    Indianapolis 2-4 +8 diff

    Chargers 4-2 -2 diff
    Raiders 4-2 +3 diff
    Panthers 3-3 +22 diff

    Or look at last year.
    Baltimore had the highest point differential (+165), but had 3 more losses than KC (+111).
    They were also a game behind Arizona (+88) despite having almost twice the PD.

    Or consider 3 teams that season that had essentially the same PD: -11, -14, and -18.
    These teams had the following records: 11-5, 6-10, 4-12.
     
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  21. KMM

    KMM Well-Known Member

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    Good gawd. Did I not say that every year one or two teams over or under perform relative to point differential. That's called randomness. Or as some may call it luck.

    As for this year, it's been 6 games. That's not exactly a large sample size. I believe I wrote that things will shake out over 17 games. It's like the guy hitting .400 over two months. We all know he isn't going to hit .400 by year's end.

    Even with that if you chart winning % right now vs point differential, the correlation coefficient is 0.85, That is a strong, robust correlation.


    I'm guessing though from your post, however, that understanding randomness and statistics isn't your strong point, so just go to the ESPN NFL standings page, click on League at the top, then click on the point differential column to sort by that, and look at the general trend of winning % and tell me there isn't a strong correlation
     
    Last edited: Oct 20, 2021
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  22. lewisha

    lewisha Well-Known Member

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    I am not sure what you're getting at. Steelers were more lucky than good in the 11-0. Playing against a bunch of back-up QBs, Ratbirds and Bungles devastated with Covid. I was saying the Steelers were really, really lucky. Which is why I put that in the first sentence. I'm not sure what you're meaning about the green font?
     
  23. MeanJoeBlue

    MeanJoeBlue Well-Known Member

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    2020 - More than 2 teams. (As soon as I got a few, I stopped looking.)
    2019 - More than 2
    (Same for 2018, 2017, etc.)

    When the errors have to be large to match your prediction, then it is a weak correlation, not a "robust" one.

    Your guess would be wrong.

    But since I've only studied this about hour, rather than argue about that, let me quote two passages from the Wikipedia page on the Pearson correlation coefficient.
    (1) "The interpretation of a correlation coefficient depends on the context and purposes. A correlation of 0.8 may be very low if one is verifying a physical law using high-quality instruments, but may be regarded as very high in the social sciences, where there may be a greater contribution from complicating factors."

    In other words, 0.85 may not be as impressive as you think.

    (2) "Like many commonly used statistics, the sample statistic r is not robust,[31] so its value can be misleading if outliers are present"

    In other words, you shouldn't have used the word "robust". There are definitely outliers, and more than "every year one or two".
     
  24. KMM

    KMM Well-Known Member

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    Let me say it again: Good gawd. studied for an hour and uses Wikipedia as primary source, yet claims to know what any of what was quoted actually means and asserts that statistics are a personal strong point.

    I'll play along. The Wikipedia entry you quoted says "The interpretation of a correlation coefficient depends on the context and purposes. A correlation of 0.8 may be very low if one is verifying a physical law using high-quality instruments, but may be regarded as very high in the social sciences, where there may be a greater contribution from complicating factors."

    Which of those two options does 6 games into a 17 game football season sound more like? The verification of a physical law using high-quality instruments or the social sciences with a contribution from complicating factors? Criminy. We're talking football, not quantum physics as measured in a super collider. 0.85 is a very strong and robust, meaning it's consistently strong from year to year, correlation in the context of football.


    /Edit: If you're going to get technical on me regarding the use of the term "robust", then I'll throw it back on you for the use of the term "outlier". That has a definition in statistics based on a multiple of the standard deviation. I honestly haven't done the analysis, but given the small sample size that is 32 teams playing 16, now 17 games, I'd be surprised if there is ever a single statistical outlier when examining winning % vs point differential. So the wikipedia quote regarding lack of robustness in correlation coefficient when outliers are present doesn't apply because there are, in all likelihood, no statistical outliers.
     
    Last edited: Oct 21, 2021
  25. steel machine

    steel machine Well-Known Member

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    What do you thing the odds would be that a teams 22 starters played every game in a season. I'd say 100,000 trillion to 1.
     
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