FIRE BRUCE ARIANS TOMORROW MORNING!

People may not like his creativity, or lack thereof, and they may think that he is too predictable and lacks the ability to make adjustment, and thats fine. But the results are there. He is no different than Whiz and Whiz was absolutely adored by most fans.

 

The results are NOT there. From an earlier post of mine:

Threw some numbers together today with a buddy of mine. We wanted to measure the Steelers' points against their opponents compared to their opponents' opponents.

The formula: Take the Steelers' opponents' points per game against (not counting Steelers games) and compare to the Steelers' points against that same opponent. We did this for an entire season to see just how well the Steelers offense has played in comparison to other teams. Of course, these numbers do not account for defensive and special teams scores or QB injuries...and rooting out the #s in these situations would take hours. Regardless, these numbers tend to even out pretty much over the course of a season.

We then decided to look at the cumulative QB rating for the team and see if there are parallels.

As a benchmark, we took the Steelers' Super Bowl XIV and XXX teams. The 1979 Steelers' opponents gave up 18.81 pts per game (not counting their games vs Steelers). The Steelers scored 26.00 pts per game. In other words, the Steelers were 7.19 pts better than other teams against their common opponents. That is offesnive efficiency at its best. The 1979 QB rating (Bradshaw and Kruczek) was 76.6 The 1995 Steelers were 3.79 pts better than other teams. The QB rating (O'Donnell and Tomczak) was 76.9.

So we decided to put this formula to the test during the Ben years. Here are the numbers from 2004 to 2006 (with Whisenhunt as coordinator):

2004: +3.38 / QB rating: 93.2
2005 (SB XL champs): +4.45 / QBR: 89.4
2006: +3.02 / QBR: 80.2

Here are the numbers from 2007 to 2010, under Arians (hold your breath):

2007: +1.73 / QBR: 99.9
2008 (SB XLIII champs): +1.46 / 81.9
2009: +.73 / 98.9
2010: +2.45 / 95.2

Our conclusions: Ben's QB play has gotten steadily better. If you were to chart the team's QB play on a line graph, it would be steadily going up, from Ben's rookie year. Under Arians, the QBs have three season with a cumulative QBR over 90! Yet, as you look at the numbers, the Steelers BARELY score any more points against their opponents than other teams do. Compare this to what the team did under Whisenhunt, with a slightly lower QBR. And look at what the Steelers did in 95 and 79 with an ever lower QBR.

I'd have to go back further, into Cowhers' other years and Noll's years with Malone and Brister at QB. But if you ask me, these #s do not speak well for Arians at all. We wanted to see if it's "all in our heads" that the Steelers seem to sputter on offense, and the results of our number-crunching suggests it isn't. He has a QB playng at a high level and relatively NO points to show for it.

 

Thanks, you too bud! Yep, sure seems that way to me as well!

 

A) Throw QBR out the window when comparing eras.

B) Those are really interesting statistics and I get your point. They don't perform relative to their opponents competition. And I don't deny that, at times they struggle to score points. Some blame goes to BA, some to execution.

However, those stats can be a bit misleading. You didn't factor out defensive scores and they can add up. In 2006 they had 6 defensive TDs. 8 in 2009. They mean a lot. Your 2006 number of 3.02 is going to be a bit inflated as is the .73 in 2009. It would be interesting to see that run again factoring out defensive scores. For everyone.

Also consider the 2007 season where the Steelers only out scored their opponents opponents by 1.73 ppg. The AFCN played the AFCE that year. It also happened to be the year that Tom Brady and Bill Belichick decided to go on their scorched earth policy and run up the score in route to the NFL record of 589 points that year. Thats an average of 38ppg and they scored exactly that on average against their AFCE rivals. Thats also the year that the Steelers played the Dolphins to a 3-0 barn burner on a field that was a quagmire. Remember the punt getting stuck in the mud? That game alone put them nearly 2 ppg in the hole versus their opponents opponents. And it had nothing to do with Arians. You're punishing him for the Pats offensive success and the Rooneys poor decision making regarding the field at Heinz. Doesn't seem fair to me.

 

I don't know what is more impressive you guys being able to come up with all those stats or actually having the time to do it.Honestly I'm not that smart, but I do know that the production or lack thereof that is displayed most weeks falls below the line of acceptable. One major factor you may be leaving out is how the rule changes have made it easier for the offense to put up points. It seems to me that the teams with competent OCs have been able to take advantage of that,while we remain middle of the pack. With the talent we have on the offensive side of the ball we should be ranked up there with some of the top teams,and we're not. To me the blame should fall on the OCs shoulders. I know we have the blame the players and the execution crowd ,but the biggest factors to being more consistent and effective are game planning,situational football and adjustments and I think we are seriously lacking in all those departments. Who is it that is responsible for those things?

 

The OC is who......

You are exactly right and the QB plays the way you Coach him,,,,,so if you have Ben throwing into double and triple coverage all the time it is because the OC allows him or even encourages him to do it in practice....

I am sure if BA told Ben to hit the check down in practice that Ben would listen,,,if he didn't you call him over during the game and say hey look the TE'S and RB'S are wide open ,,hit the check downs the rest will open up....Then if Ben fails to do it then you take the next step and say hey look you have to hit the check downs to get this game plan moving if you refuse I will put in a QB who will......

I don't care who you are no man is bigger than the Team,,,but it's a non-issue as BA Loves the deep stuff just like Ben and is why Ben doesn't want another OC because another OC will actually Coach him and teach him how to make a game plan work........I mean Ben might have a few questions like what is a Game Plan?What do you mean by check downs?What do you mean when you use the term play action?What does work through my progressions mean???

As I am sure that Ben has forgot most of these ,,but he will catch on quick I am sure....

 

Troll? Hardly. Just a realist who looks at our team objectively, as opposed to a couple homers who don't see any problems and don't have the balls to tell it like it is. Big Stinky, this one's for you: everything will be fine, this team will be fine, BA is a wonderful OC. Lol what an apologist! And for JD ??? (your member name is the flavor of the month), are you somehow related to BA or maybe you are BA? You have never offered any constructive (aka helpful) insight into how our team can improve. What gives??

 

in his defense about the in practice quote PWP, he's most likely open in practice against our DBs. LOL

 

Troll? Hardly. Just a realist who looks at our team objectively, as opposed to a couple homers who don't see any problems and don't have the balls to tell it like it is. Big Stinky, this one's for you: everything will be fine, this team will be fine, BA is a wonderful OC. Lol what an apologist! And for JD ??? (your member name is the flavor of the month), are you somehow related to BA or maybe you are BA? You have never offered any constructive (aka helpful) insight into how our team can improve. What gives?? [/quote:bubo2qsk]


Bahahaha!!!! Ok, uh, yeah, sure, whatever makes ya feel better there slappy. Oh my, you have balls because you call people names on a message board? LOL, nice message board muscles there skippy. What will I ever do, you've hurt my last feeling!

Ah the old realist defense, classic. Actually, if you were a realist you would be able to comprehend my previous post. However your blind hatred for Arians and unrealistic expectation for the Steelers limits you from possessing common sense. You are exactly the type of person I referenced in my previous post. Thank you for validating my point.

My previous post stated: Look, Arians isn't the greatest OC but he's not the worst like some portray him to be. The bottom line is that if he was really that horrible he wouldn't have been hired as WR coach in 04 and then promoted as OC in 07. So, he's been OC for 5 seasons now. It doesn't matter what we think about him, the Rooneys and the Steelers opinion of him is the only one that matters. If he was really that bad the Rooneys would have been rid of him a long time ago. I think most on here just love to have a scapegoat anytime the Steelers have problems and love to repeat useless garble that they hear from others. Maybe I will start blaming Arians for my athletes foot too and my flat tire I got last week.

It doesn't matter who the HC, OC or QB is, there is always someone that is going to be unhappy. It doesn't matter if Moore, Walton, Erhardt, Gailey, Sherman, Mularkey, Whisenhunt or Arians is the OC, or Bradshaw, Malone, Brister, ODonnell, Stewart, Maddox or Roethlisberger is the QB or Noll, Cowher or Tomlin is the HC. The bottom line is that no matter how good this team ever is, its never good enough for some people. Its been this way since the 70's, lol, it will never change. Some of you just love to always have something to ***** and moan about.

 

Offensive drives stall when Ben stops protecting the ball, and when BA calls run plays the O-Line can't support. Also, when BA calls pass plays with blocking schemes the O-Line can't support. Additionally, if every member of the opposing defensive line bull-rushes... it's over.

Please watch the latest Chalk Talk w/Bob and Tunch. Tunch calls Ben out as to why he's throwing into double coverage to try to hit Wallace when Johnson and Brown were wide open *cough* on shorter routes *cough*.

I don't buy all this BS about Ben is throwing where he's throwing because BA is coaching that. That's hogwash. Ben makes too much money and gets too many props on other threads to not be held responsible for not being able to hit the open man. If he can't go through his progressions correctly, then his @zz belongs on the bench. That goes for any starting QB. Sheesh!

 

I actually agree with you JD that BA isn't the worst OC out there. Realistically, he is in the bottom half of the NFL OC's out there though. And considering that the Steelers are pretty much in the hunt every season and are arguably the greatest and most successful NFL franchise of all time, most folks would expect the Steelers to have at least a top 10 or even top 5 OC. I guess that is where my frustration comes from with BA. I'm not trying to jump into the fray with you and hurl barbs back and forth (had enough of that crap over on the other board). But why do you think these "heated" debates about BA just don't seem to cease - serious question here? If we had the best OC in the NFL (whoever that might be), do you think there would still be fire xxxxx threads on all of the Steelers related forums? Honestly, I think there will always be to some degree, but not to the degree that we see now with BA. You're probably right that he isn't going anywhere, which is disappointing (not that you're right, but that he isn't going anywhere). This team could be absolutely unstoppable with the right OC and it's disappointing that we seem to be stuck with the same old mediocre O, when we have the talent and pedigree to be one of the most potent O's ever. The Steelers have arguably the best DC in the league and at minimum, DL is top 5. Why can't we expect the same on O?

 

The problem I have with you guys that are on BA's side is the fact that over the past 5 years we have had some of the best skill position offensive players in the league yet we still only score 17? pts a game. Consistently ranked bottom half of the NFL in points scored. As I said in another post, BA is below average in almost every category as an O coordinator. His main problem is he is worse than a failure when it comes to situational play calling. The red zone IS situational playing, and it is why we stall on drives in or around the redzone

 

I said it before and I'll say it again, BA averages .3 ppg less than Whisenhunt.

Did you have a problem with KW?

Their offensive output in terms of points in practically identical.

And talent wise, lets not forget the talent that KW had as well. Bettis, Burress, Holmes, Ward, Miller, etc etc etc.

 

Different teams.

Under Wisenhunt the Steelers offensive gameplan was control clock and field position / play good defense. Ben was new to the league, and barely threw the ball. They had Bettis and Willy parker tearing up the yards. If you remember correctly the steelers would always score first and sit on a lead. Cower was something ridiculous and 1 when leading by 10 in the 4th quarter. He also was like 18-1 on Monday night football.

Im pretty sure we can agree that the team Whisenhunt had was geared to RUN first, get a lead and try to not lose the game. Sure it sucked not blowing people out 31-3 or 31-10 but those teams won 17-3, 20-6 on a regular basis

With BA, we have explosive offensive players and that is sad he averages .3 less than Whisenhunt. Thanks for clarifying BA sucks.

 

To further emphasize my point.

Whizenhunt 2004-2006

2004: 11th: http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/team/ ... /year/2004
2005: 9th: http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/team/ ... /year/2005
2006: 12: http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/team/ ... /year/2006

Arians 2007-present

2007: 9th: http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/team/ ... /year/2007
2008: 20th: http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/team/ ... /year/2008
2009: 12th: http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/team/ ... /year/2009
2010: 12th: http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/team/ ... /year/2010
2011: 22nd: http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/team/ ... /year/2011

By the way check Arizonas PPG in all the years we have had Arians.

 

Do you realize that the Steelers actually control the clock better under Arians? Their TOP is slightly higher under him than Whisenhunt.


http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/av ... -net-of-ot

 

Thats nice, but you may want to subtract out all of the defensive and special teams TDs and then recalculate how much the average ppg the offenses are generating:

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categoryst...sonType=REG&tabSeq=2&qualified=true&Submit=Go

Like I said, its .3ppg difference.

 

Time of possession means nothing when you are behind and is useless if you don't score points. Also BA, Ben and Tomlin are awful at managing the playclock. Are you a troll or do you not watch the same Steelers I do?

 

Out of curiosity, I ran your analysis but subtracted out the New England scores from common opponents as well as the Steelers scores for 2007.

Under this scenario, your 1.73 becomes 2.26. Having the unfortunate draw of playing the AFCE the same year as the Patriots had an NFL record setting offense, plus playing Miami in a quagmire cost Bruce Arians over 1/2 point per game.

Thats why your analysis is flawed. There are too many factors that are out of BA's control that could be working against him. As I mentioned, turn overs and other teams prolific offense among others. What about games at the end of the year where the Steelers are resting their starters? Or their opponents are resting their starters? Or where a past opponent is resting its starters against a team that fighting for a play off birth?

Too many variables that have nothing to do with Bruce and the Steelers offense.

 

I don't know, you tell me.

All I have done is provide facts. All you have done is call me names.

 

The offense has absolutely changed from a run first to pass first. But they still control the clock and they still score the same amount of PPG. Same results achieved through different means.

As far as explosive players, you act as if they didn't exist in Pittsburgh until BA arrived. Have you forgotten that Willie Parker, Santonio Holmes, and Plaxico Burress all played under KW?

***edit*** and Heath Miller too.

 

Whoa!

The OC encourages bad passing?

If you can prove that to me, I'll switch sides immediately. I will scream louder than anyone for BAs firing.

 

Plus I don't think Ben can be coached. I think his head (ego) is too big! Sorta like

 

You may be right (I may be crazy).

Well, not really. But a little Billy Joel popped into my head and it just blurted out.