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"experts" best guess

Discussion in 'The Bill Nunn Draft Room' started by steel1031, Feb 16, 2014.

  1. SteelCity_NB

    SteelCity_NB Staff Member Mod Team

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    Numbah - Would you be happy with Mike Evans in the 1st round then Troy Niklas in Round 2?
     
  2. TerribleTowelFlying

    TerribleTowelFlying Staff Member Site Admin Mod Team

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    I know he doesn't get much love here, but I really like Niklas personally. Out of the "top" TE's in this class, I think he'd be the best fit for this team.
     
  3. TerribleTowelFlying

    TerribleTowelFlying Staff Member Site Admin Mod Team

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  4. SteelCity_NB

    SteelCity_NB Staff Member Mod Team

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    Fantastic article TTF. Thanks. I really have enjoyed their series on these statistics.

    Niklas is definitely the forgotten man amongst the Top 4 TEs, and realistically could be there for us in the 2nd round.

    This distribution chart (along with his lousy blocking) is precisely why I don't really like Amaro at all. Nearly 75% of his receptions came from within 10 yards. Cross him off the list.

    That 11-20 yard area is what I look for out of my TE. This is exactly what I saw on tape from Seferian-Jenkins and which is why I have him as my #1 TE. Not to mention he has the highest pct of 20+ yards. Plus he is the best blocker out of all the Top TEs. That being said, #15 is too high for him and I don't think he makes it to our 2nd round pick.

    Ebron's distribution is right where I thought it would be. I really like his distribution in the 10-20 yard range. The combine will be huge for him. He looks more like a high 4.5 or 4.6 guy on tape. But if he runs where he thinks he can say 4.4, well you have to admire that athleticism.

    Niklas' distribution seems to mark him as a chain mover, however on tape, I would have thought he would have been higher in the 11-20 yard range. THere is alot of seam passes for 15 yards that I saw him catch on film.
     
  5. numbah58

    numbah58 Staff Member Mod Team

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    I'd be OK with it I guess. I'd be very happy if it was Seferian-Jenkins in the 2nd..
     
  6. SteelCity_NB

    SteelCity_NB Staff Member Mod Team

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    me too. I just can't see how ASJ lasts that long though, but hey, stranger things have happened.
     
  7. TerribleTowelFlying

    TerribleTowelFlying Staff Member Site Admin Mod Team

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    Kind of a big stat...

    [tweet]436181991076032512[/tweet]
     
  8. TerribleTowelFlying

    TerribleTowelFlying Staff Member Site Admin Mod Team

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    I agree wholeheartedly with everything, though I don't know if I'd say ASJ is the best blocker. He needs work in that area IMO.
     
  9. TerribleTowelFlying

    TerribleTowelFlying Staff Member Site Admin Mod Team

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    "- Here’s Ebron’s dirty little secret – his hands just aren’t as good as some make them out to be. He made some nice one-handed grabs, but he also has a 11.43% drop rate which is not something to be overlooked."
     
  10. SteelCity_NB

    SteelCity_NB Staff Member Mod Team

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    Would you say Niklas is a better blocker than ASJ? I'd have that argument but I think the big man is certainly better than Ebron and Amaro.
     
  11. numbah58

    numbah58 Staff Member Mod Team

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    His catch radius is ridiculous and the drops is offset by the catches he makes that none of the other TE's can even get close to IMO..
     
  12. thesteeldeal

    thesteeldeal Well-Known Member

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    Rather have Fiedorowicz in the third so we can use our first two picks on impact players. Sorry didn't read the article to see how he graded out, but from watching tape he seems to be skilled at both blocking and receiving. Better value as a third round comp too.
     
  13. mac daddyo

    mac daddyo Well-Known Member

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    all I know is when and if we take a TE, I have faith in james daniels to make him better. he's done wonders with heath. he has a lot to do with spaeth being a good 2nd TE and he has really impressed me with what he has done with DJ since his first season.

    we can bring up Paulson and palmer and some others, but I'm not sure he has had enough time with them yet. they were in scramble mode when heath was out and then spaeth got hurt right off the bat.

    he's made DJ a decent receiver and a really good blocker in 3 years as a 3rd TE. I would expect he could work wonders with any of these high upside TE's going forward and we will have something when heath finally does retire.

    I am still intrigued by Nehemiah hicks from texas A&M too as a late 7th or priority UDFA. I wonder what he could do with a guy like that.:cool:
     
  14. SteelCity_NB

    SteelCity_NB Staff Member Mod Team

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    Paulson is finished. Its time to move on from that mistake.
     
  15. TheSteelHurtin2188

    TheSteelHurtin2188 Well-Known Member

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    It's hard to call a 7th round pick a mistake.
     
  16. SteelCity_NB

    SteelCity_NB Staff Member Mod Team

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    I disagree. I don't believe in wasting draft picks. Sure you can say how big of a crapshoot it is, but still, it is the JOB of the GM and the scouts to get these picks right. There's lots of great 7th round draft picks playing in the NFL today.

    We could have drafted Vontaze Burfict with that pick.
     
  17. TheSteelHurtin2188

    TheSteelHurtin2188 Well-Known Member

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    That is true but Paulson was a pass catching TE they played really well at Oregon but needed a bunch of work. Everyone knew he was a project and last year was only his second season so you really could say the jury is still out on him. After all the bad pub the steelers were getting there is no way in hell they were drafting Burfict and I was extremely pissed when they didn't. I have very high hopes for Garvin though. I think if he puts 10 more pounds on he will be a monster. Lebeau loves him and said he won't be known just for that hit for long. He did start against the Packers but I think we started that game in the nickel so that's why he started.
     
  18. SGSteeler

    SGSteeler Well-Known Member

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    No way is any 7th round pick a waste. Ever. While there are some very good late round picks that are still playing in the NFL, they are an extreme exception and far from the norm. Sometimes you get lucky with a guy, or a guy fits your scheme perfectly, or he's a late bloomer etc. You can say it is the GM's job to get these picks right, but it is also a designated hitters job to hit the baseball... and if he does it 30 times out of 100 he is considered really good at his job. Paulson actually would be considered somewhat of a solid pick because he not only made the roster in multipe years, he contributed in ech year he was on the roster (even though the contribution was small). He outperformed the "average" 7th round pick by a long shot. Most wont ever even make a roster.

    Your Burfict point is valid. I hate that the Steelers seem to rarely take chances on "character issue" guys in the late rounds. This is the best place to do it. I understand not drafting a guy like that in the early rounds (since that pick is a huge investment for the organization), but in the 7th round there is literally ZERO risk involved. None whatsoever. This is why I want the Steelers to take Lyerla if he is there. No risk, high reward situation. Most 7th round picks don't make a roster because they just aren't very good at football. That wouldn't be the case for Lyerla.
     
  19. steelersrule6

    steelersrule6 Well-Known Member

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    There are plenty of TE in the draft no need to draft a coke addict who didn't play last season Lyerla.
     
  20. HugeSnack

    HugeSnack Well-Known Member

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    I don't think you can lump those two together.

    If they hadn't taken Paulson, they still would not have taken Burfict. They were not going to take Burfict. That's a separate issue, because clearly the team would have taken him if they wanted to. They had decided not to.

    Paulson made the roster for a couple years. He didn't become much and he won't stick around if we draft a new tight end. Judge him by that. Judge the team's refusal to select Burfict separately.


    A 12% drop rate is not something to be overlooked. Drops are a serious thing for pass catchers. Impressive catches do NOT make up for them - not one bit. Unless it happens on the next play and goes for the same amount of yards or more. I'd like to see a stat for that. Even if they did offset, if that's what you're doing, then you're erasing his fantastic catch radius. That's a big deal! Cancel the drops, but cancel what makes him special. That's worth a first round pick?
     
  21. TerribleTowelFlying

    TerribleTowelFlying Staff Member Site Admin Mod Team

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    Yes. Niklas has his hand in the dirt to start almost every play, and is an asset as a blocker. He will need to get some strength training in if he's going to hope to achieve that at the next level, because I did see times where he was overpowered.

    ASJ is a good blocker, but in some of the games I watched, he was easily pushed off his block or had a tendency to give up on his man too soon. ASJ is definitely the bigger offensive threat, though.
     
  22. numbah58

    numbah58 Staff Member Mod Team

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    Drops are a skewed stat. Anything the receiver gets his hands on and doesn't pull in is regarded as a drop. Ebron gets his mits on a lot of passes that the other TE's don't.

    There is no subjectivity or common sense involved in the stat. Whether the QB throws a bad pass, leads you into a safety etc.. If you touch it and don't bring it in, it's a drop. I don't put much into that. If other's do, that's fine..
     

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