Dulac saying Fields will be QB in 2025

I dug into stats over the past 2 seasons for free agent CBs (including our own Donte Jackson). Keep in mind that these stats are just numbers. They don’t reflect coverage scheme (man, zone, had help, on an island, etc), or position (field, boundary, nickel) or whether they benefited from interceptions because of someone else’s tip. Any stats on receptions allowed, yards allowed, QB rating, etc. are based on the PFF reviewers’ determination of who was responsible - fairly simple in man, not always as clear in zone. I ignored PFF grades because they are very subjective.

I looked at Carlton Davis, Charvarious Ward, DJ Reed, Byron Murphy, Nate Hobbs and Donte Jackson.

1. DJ Reed was the best statistically. He was the only one who allowed a sub 100 passer rating both seasons (85.1, 91.7). He had the 2nd highest total snaps (behind Murphy). He had a very low percentage of missed tackles - 118 solo tackles vs 16 missed tackles. His problem was that he had just 1 interception the past 2 seasons. He’s also 5’8” and plays outside corner. Spotrac projects his value at 4 years 58.6M.

2. Murphy has turnover production: 6 Ints in 2024, 3 in 2023. He also misses a lot of tackles: 34 misses vs 119 solo tackles. He played the most snaps, and gave up the most receptions (76 just last season). Reed allowed 78 over 2 years. Spotrac projects his value at 4 years 88M - yikes!

3. Ward was really good in 2023: 931 snaps, 62.3 passer rating, 5 Ints. However in 2024 he played 697 snaps with a 110.1 allowed passer rating and zero Ints. He had the lowest missed tackles 10 misses vs 104 solos. Prior to 2024 he has been really good, so maybe worth the risk on a 3 year deal with an easy out of year 3 if Father Time gets him. Spotrac projects his value at 3 years 45.9M

4. Carlton Davis’ stats were nothing special though he did allow an 87.9 passer rating last year vs 107.4.in 2023. I know that he has a good track record in the league and is credited as being at his best in man coverage, which I think we want to utilize more. He is pretty good on missed tackles 13 misses vs 103 solos. Spotrac has his value at 3 years 41.3M. Maybe…

5. Nate Hobbs allows around 100 passer rating both years, is average in other coverage numbers except for only allowing 9 yards/rec. The lowest of all of these guys (I wonder if he played mainly in the nickel?). He misses a lot of tackles. Spotrac has him at 1 year, 2.85M. Seems low risk, and isn’t enough money to lock down a spot if we find a better rookie or camp cut from elsewhere.

6. Donte Jackson had two good stats: a 66.9 passer rating allowed last year, which was probably influenced heavily by his 5 Ints. Otherwise meh. I thought he looked like a serviceable #2 corner early in the year, but I thought he really sucked down the stretch. His stats are generally better than Hobbs though, and if you look at his stats vs. the other guys’ stats, you’d think he’d a value approaching 10M/year. Spotrac didn’t even bother assigning him a contract value.

 

Yeah. Spotrac says they have a formula for calculating market value. I wonder if turnovers have factored into the “math” of Murphy’s contract value. I’m sure that the team will be asking about every corner in FA. I sure as hell wouldn’t pay that much for him, but he is a solid player overall.

I haven’t really watched much of Reed, but statistically he was really solid over the past 2 seasons while playing opposite Sauce, meaning that Reed was the guy that would get more looks his way. There may be something there.

 

Darnold has always been the best option so I hope we pull this off.

Im less concerned about the offensive weapons than I am about the coaching. To me that was probably the bigger factor behind unleashing Darnolds potential. Pickens paired with a good #2 will be good enough weapons.