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% chance Available at #20

Discussion in 'The Bill Nunn Draft Room' started by SteelCity_NB, Apr 21, 2019.

  1. SteelCity_NB

    SteelCity_NB Staff Member Mod Team

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    Oct 23, 2011
    I wanted to get some opinion and consensus 9n what people think are the chances the following players are available at #20. So dont consider trading up or anything. I just want to know how likely you expect the following prospects to be available at #20.

    OT Jonah Williams - 40%
    WR DK Metcalf - 5%
    WR AJ Brown - 95%
    TE TJ Hockenson - 45%
    LB Devin Bush - 30%
    EDGE Montez Sweat - 35%
    EDGE Brian Burns - 40%
    EDGE Clelin Ferrell - 80%
    DT Christian Wilkins - 60%
    CB Byron Murphy - 75%
    CB DeAndre Baker - 90%
    CB Greedy Williams - 50%
    S Nasir Adderly - 99%

    What say you? Anyone I should add that realistically could be available at 20 that isn't 100% for sure?
     
  2. Steel_Elvis

    Steel_Elvis Staff Member Mod Team

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    Nov 4, 2011
    Some where we differ significantly:
    EDGE Montez Sweat - 75%
    TE TJ Hockenson - 25%
    DT Christian Wilkins - 30%
    CB Byron Murphy - 50%
    WR DK Metcalf - 40%

    Some to add based on interest the Steelers have shown:
    S Darnell Savage - 95% (The only top safety who came in for a visit)
    EDGE Chase Winovich - 85%
     
  3. SteelCity_NB

    SteelCity_NB Staff Member Mod Team

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    Oct 23, 2011
    Sweat is starting to intrigue me again. I like his tape but i thought his combine performance would cement him as a top 10 guy. Starting to think maybe that would t happen.

    I know you follow PFF. They don't like him at all.

    I just watched Sweat vs Bama and Burns vs Bama (from 2017). Burns was completely neutralized all game where Sweat was very active.

    Burns is certainly twitchy and can win with speed and inside moves. But he rarely wins with power which bothers me. Conversely, Sweat, even though he ran 4.4 and is fast, almost always wins with hands and power. He gets those long arms on the Tackle and always has control.

    Many will argue but I think I have Sweat > Ferrell > Burns.

    As for Savage I would have him at 100% available at #20. Same with Winovich. Ok ok, 99% just in case I have to walk it back :lolol:
     
  4. Steel_Elvis

    Steel_Elvis Staff Member Mod Team

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    Nov 4, 2011
    Sweat actually graded out pretty strong in PFF's scoring. Not top 10 pick strong, but strong. My view on where he could be drafted is more about his heart condition than anything on the field. I'm reading that some teams are leery of the heart condition that was raised in the combine medical check. I like his tape a lot, and I think he would be a great pick at #20 (setting aside his heart condition, the details of which I have not seen). I took him at #12 for Green Bay in our message board mock draft.
     
  5. turtle

    turtle

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    Jan 14, 2015
    I put the big ones that differ in bold, the rest of the changes are minor.

    OT Jonah Williams - 50%
    WR DK Metcalf - 5%
    WR AJ Brown - 100%
    TE TJ Hockenson - 60%
    LB Devin Bush - 20%
    EDGE Montez Sweat - 75%
    EDGE Brian Burns - 15%

    EDGE Clelin Ferrell - 80%
    DT Christian Wilkins - 60%
    CB Byron Murphy - 50%
    CB DeAndre Baker - 90%
    CB Greedy Williams - 100%
    S Nasir Adderly - 100%
     
  6. mcam

    mcam Well-Known Member

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    Feb 5, 2017
    Yeah no way do I see Sweat available at 20. If he was I'd have to pull the trigger on that one. He's top 15 and I'll give that a 95% certainty rating.

    And Greedy Williams with a 100% availability at 20? Not sure what percentage, but he's the best man-to-man cover corner in this draft in a pass happy league. If anything, I'd reverse that to say he's 100% unavailable at 20, but I'd probably give him a 25% chance he could fall to 20. We will find out tomorrow
     
  7. turtle

    turtle

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    Jan 14, 2015
    And Greedy is still available in the second. Gotta be a complete player.
     
  8. mcam

    mcam Well-Known Member

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    Feb 5, 2017
    I think his issue is mostly a poor combine (minus his 40 time) coupled with other good players going before him.

    I'd move up in the second and get him. :cool:
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  9. turtle

    turtle

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    just went to the brownies...
     
  10. mcam

    mcam Well-Known Member

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    Feb 5, 2017
    damn lol
     

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