Cap space available doesn't tell the fan much!

Over-Under Cap doesn't tell much

An NFL team's over-under cap in pre-season is only meaningful to NFL GMs. Non-compliance with a team's salary cap is extremely rare. The over-under cap at the season's beginning to the fan should mean almost nothing. The fan should focus on the total value of the team contracts and cap charges for those contracts compared to other teams to better understand the situation.

What does the data show? The findings might surprise you. Using Over The Cap as my source, I meticulously took each team's top 53 cap-charged players for the 2023 season opener. I compared their contract value to the cap charge for that player, ensuring the utmost accuracy in the analysis.

2023 Opening season - cap status

Traditional analysis

The Bills had only $35K of cap space for the season opener, compared to the Patriots' $5M. (Per OverTheCap).


Total contract value analysis

For the season opener, the Bills had contracts valued at $284M APY, with a cap charge of 72% on those contracts. The Bills had the highest contract value in the league and the sixth-lowest cap charge.

On the other hand, the Patriots had only a $175M APY of contracts (the lowest of 32 teams) because the cap charge was 104% (the highest of 32 teams). Backloading contracts without restructuring or extending those contracts causes problems.

Which club is in better shape- the Bills with only $35K of cap space and $284M APY contracts or the Patriots with $5M of cap space and $175M APY contract value?

A month before kick-off- how do the Steelers look in contract value and contract cap costs vs the league? Stay tuned.

 

The Cleveland Browns just redid Watson's contract and are now $62 million under the Cap as the season is about to begin??? I have no idea why Cleveland would do this on August 29th.

If you are wondering Watson's Cap hit next year will be $73 million.


Now, this crazy ass article says the Browns are getting ready for a Superbowl run and will need the money so they can add Tee Higgins, TJ Watt, and Trent Williams to their roster this year.


Deshaun Watson contract restructure: Implications for Browns - ESPN
This is a wildly extreme example, but let's say Bengals receiver Tee Higgins, Steelers edge rusher T.J. Watt and 49ers offensive tackle Trent Williams all became available in trades. You'd need about $62 million in cap space to absorb those salaries if you wanted to trade for all three of them, and the Browns actually have it! No matter how unforeseen the situation, they'll be able to at least explore that possibility. It's maximum short-term flexibility for a team with Super Bowl aspirations.

 

The cap is easily manipulated via player contracts. You can nearly always create more cap room.

The browns are betting on the cap going up substantially in future years so pushing Watsons money out makes absolute sense. They will do it next year too. They will have to eat the cost at some point but say if that’s in three years time it will be a smaller percentage of the cap than it is now so it won’t decimate their roster and they can keep a team on the field.

 

It actuallly is 73 million for the next 2 years, then some amount in a void year. Because of how they restructured I'm not sure they can add void years to his total, maybe, but because it has already been paid as roster bonus (or such as that) it seems like they are stuck...which the amount was guaranteed anyway, just moved it a bit in the future. They can likely sign a couple of key guys and it will not show until later, but they also have to sign/extend some of their guys as well. The window is tight, so they are either vying for this year, or creating space for splash signings next year.

 

Plenty of Cap Space here