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Article on going for it in 4th down, and trading 1st round picks

Discussion in 'General NFL Talk' started by AFan, Sep 12, 2016.

  1. AFan

    AFan Well-Known Member

    Oct 24, 2011

    Not so much an article, but a summary of some research done analyzing past data. The original research articles might be more interesting.

    Anyway, it states that teams should on 4th down more than they do. I tend to agree, that coaches are more conservative than they should be. But the article states that even on your 10 yard line, if it's 4th and 4 or less, you should go for it. And if it's 4th down and your inside their 5 yd line, don't kick the FG, go for it! I suspect that we won't see those things happen very often.

    The other thing that's interesting is the author argues that teams should trade their first round picks in favor of 2nd and 3rd rounders. These players are cheaper and they're nearly as good. Besides you'll get more of them, which minimizes the risk of failure. Hadn't though about that angle, but it seems to make sense to me.

    Food for thought
  2. shaner82

    shaner82 Well-Known Member

    Oct 16, 2011
    I read the article, but there were no stats in there to back it up. The stats appear to be in the paper linked to, but it's a very long read, one I likely will never get around to reading. I'll say this though, show me one example of a winning NFL franchise utilizing the Money Ball approach and I'll buy in to what they're selling. Until then, value based on cost and performance is meaningless to me. It's all about performance.

    Instead, they should track stats of the performance impact 1st rounders make vs 2nd and 3rd rounders. Compare the odds of those players becoming impact players, that will truly tell you whether you're better off with 1 1st or 2 2nd's. The reality is teams have done those kinds of studies, which is exactly why they continue to covet 1st round picks.
  3. blountforcetrauma

    blountforcetrauma Well-Known Member

    Oct 23, 2011
    Remember a few years ago in that Colts-Pats game where the Pats went for it on 4th and 2 and Faulk bobbled it and they didn't give him the first and the Colts went on to win? Well apparently a bunch of physicists done some kind of study after that game and determined that the odds were on Bill's side and that "technically" he made the right decision based on scientific calculations or whatever. So last night during the post game show on NFL Network they were talking about a risky play from yesterday and how it was "smart" for the team to run it. Well Deion and Tomlinson were like "No it was NOT smart to run it!" and the host said "Well the data backs it up!" and Tomlinson said "But that data isn't based on these two teams in that exact moment". That's a good point because there are so many variables in each possible situation. I think it's one of those things where the players and coaches just have to have a certain "feel" for the moment. Deion said the only place where numbers like that really matter. He said "If a guy is batting .200 you don't send him to the plate against Randy Johnson". Even baseball has crazy exceptions though. It's actually the crazy exceptions that make sports sports.

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