Analyzing QB's potential

So, I went back to 2000 to see if there were any trends/indicators among QB's who have, at least, made it to the SB. Do teams hold onto the dream too long sometimes, when they should probably move on? And, is there a way to know when that might be?

Obviously there are far more comprehensive ways to look at QB's than my method. But, I was just looking at one aspect, how long did it take them to "get good"?

I looked at how long into their careers as starters, not in the league, until they took their team on a run of significance. Obviously, Aaron Rodgers didn't even smell pigskin until his 4th year in the league. So, I counted 2008 as his first year, as a starter. Also, I didn't count Wildcard losses as significant runs.


Trent Dilfer - 3rd year('97) - Divisional rd.
6th year('00) - SB win

Kerry Collins - 2nd year('96) - NFC Championship game
6th year('00) - SB loss

Tom Brady - 1st year('01) - SB win

Kurt Warner - 1st year('99) - SB win

Say what you want about this but he went to a tiny school, GB brought him in and was trying to win a roster spot over Favre, Brunell, and Ty Detmer. He was considered a camp arm. Nobody knew what he was. But the second he got a shot, he ran with it.

Steve McNair - 3rd year('99) - SB loss

Brad Johnson - 4th year('99) - Divisional rd
7th year('02) - SB win

Jake Delhomme - 1st year('03) - SB loss

Donovan McNabb - 1st year('00) - Divisional rd
5th year('04) - SB loss

Matt Hasselbeck - 5th year('05) - SB loss

Benjamin Roethlisberger - 1st year('04) - AFC Championship game
2nd year(05) - SB win

Peyton Manning - 2nd year('99) - Divisional rd
9th year('06) - SB win

Funny, He's the one that didn't make it to the SB till his 9th season. However, in his first 9 years he made the playoffs 7 times, finished 2nd in MVP voting twice, and won twice. So...

Rex Grossman - 1st year('06) - SB loss

Eli Manning - 4th year('07) - SB win

Drew Brees - 5th year('06) - Divisional rd - finished 2nd MVP voting
8th year('09) - SB win

Aaron Rodgers - 3rd year('10) - SB win

Joe Flacco - 1st year('08) - Divisional rd
5th year('12) - SB win

Colin Kaepernik - 1st year('12) - SB loss

Russell Wilson - 1st year('12) - Divisional rd
2nd year('13) - SB win

Cam Newton - 3rd year('13) - Divisional rd
5th year('15) - SB loss

Matt Ryan - 3rd year('10) - Divisional rd
5th year('12) - NFC championship game
9th year('16) - SB loss

Jared Goff - 3rd year('18) - SB loss

Pat Mahomes - 1st year('18) - AFC championship game
2nd year('19) - SB win

Joe Burrow - 2nd year('21) - SB loss

Matthew Staford - 13th season('21) - SB win

I think, while Stafford did make the playoffs 3 times in his 12 years in Detroit(largely due to Megatron), when it comes to Detroit, the numbers are skewed. The Lions might be the worst franchise in any sport ever. They shatter all the laws of probability. It's almost like it's a Major League(1989) situation. Where the owner is trying to lose every game in hopes it will give them an opportunity to move the team.


Looking at the stats:

So, it took these guys, on average, 2.1 seasons as a starter to make it to at least the divisinal rd
, 3.5 seasons as a starter to make it to at least the champ. game
, 3.9 seasons as a starter to make it to at least the SB

So, if you just look at the averages, it doesn't take that long to figure out if a QB has, at least, the potential to to take their teams on serious runs.

Just something to think about.

Like, guys like Kirk Cousins. He's in his 9th year as a starter and has won one playoff game. They're doing well this year but, if history means anything, I won't bet on them to make the SB.

There's some other guys who are gonna have to prove something within the next year or two, imo.

Lamar Jackson, is he worth that investment?
Kyler Murray. He's done nothing but he already got paid. Horrible deal imo
Daniel Jones needs to pull something out here and at least get a wilcard birth. He's come back to earth after that 6-1 start. Maybe the Giants would bring him back?
I'm also not buying into the Geno Smith hype. They're 7-6 in a weak ass division. They still have to play the 9'ers, Chiefs, and Jets. They'll be lucky to get a wildcard.
Tanehill is another guy that isnt going to win it. If he couldn't do it two years ago with a great defense and Henry averaging 400 yards a game, then it isn't going to.