4th and half yard from our 30.

I'm not disagreeing with you in the math - right, a FG would've beaten us "if" everything plays out identically. But even the next series was completely different. Starting at our own 2-3 vs receiving a KO. It's not overthinking it, it's just reality.

Sure, it could happen. But that's not the way the universe works unfortunately.

 

Agree. And this is classic Campbell. He's a meathead with his over-aggressiveness. They mentioned on the broadcast that he has gone for it on 4th, as of last night, 25 times this season - with about a 50% success rate.

Double-edged sword. Great, you turned 12+ concedes into another series. Bad, you turned 12+ FGs/punts into an opportunity for the opponent.

 

Ok to put it more simply. How many times have You seen just this year a team going for it on 4th down instead of taking the points , needing those exact points at the end of the game??

 

Agree, again. I would've taken the points. But that's Campbell in a nutshell.

 

This is fine. The more teams go for it the larger the statistical sample size and the better the prediction. A lot of failures will simply tweak the math in favor of kicking the ball.