3rd round selections

Well, if we keep all of our picks this year hopefully at least one of the 3rd rounders works out.

I'd feel better about this 3rd round track record if the 1st round track record wasn't even worse (although Harmon and TF both look good).

But before that:
2023 Jones - borderline
2022 Pickett - might not be in the league next year
2021 Harris - fair production when here, but not good enough for 2nd contract
2020 Used for Minkah - best use of 1st round pick in this list
2019 Bush - Worst 1st round pick I can remember us making. Especially since we traded up.
2018 Edmunds - Harris, but a little worse. Played a lot. Was just a guy.
2017 Watt - Future Hall of Famer
2016 Burns - terrible
2015 Bud - Took a while, but gave one pretty good year.
2014 Shazier - Very good pick. Tragic ending

So in 10 years that can be evaluated, that's one great player. And a couple OK guys.

For a team that wants to build through the draft, this is pretty bad.

And the worst thing about it is that the fairly new rules on cap and cash spending force teams to spend (cap and cash) at fairly high levels. So teams like us that haven't drafted well are kind of forced to go to UFA and overpay for guys (see: DK).

Good news re: drafting is that we've done OK in the 2nd round. Because the 1st and 3rds haven't been good.
2024 Frazier (confident saying he's good even though it's generally "too early" to judge draft classes this early IMO).
2023 JPJ, Benton. Both solid if not spectacular. I think JPJ is generally under rated. And Benton had his best year this year IMO.
2022 Pickens. Gave good production. Traded for something of value.
2021 PF. Reasonable contributor for a 2nd rounder IMO. Could have better production if we didn't forget about him for long stretches or play Smith over him even though Smith is worse. Still the only pick I ever complained about in real time since we had a desperate need for a OC and there was a guy who looked great sitting right there for us.
2020 Claypool. Good first year. Sucked after that. But we swindled CHI, which is hilarious.
2019 No one. Why you ask? Part of package for Devin ****ing Bush.
2018 James Washington. Disappointment
2017 Juju. Good production, but got hurt. Did AB steal his bike? We'll never know.
2016 Davis. Disappointment.
2015 Golson. Hurt all the time.
2014 Tuitt. Great pick. Too bad he retired early, but I get it.

 

Not being able to get a helmet on a team that's so desperate for WR help is a very, very bad sign for Wilson.

 

This is a great point.

Wonder what the expected value of mid to late 3rd rounders is?

My guess is that we're probably somewhere around that expectation in the 3rd.

And below EV in the 1st (although we usually are picking late-ish in the 1st where expectations should be much lower than early 1sts...part of the reason that Bush pick really, really hurts).

 

I agree with you man.
Except TEs, but I definitely agree, and have posted many times Wrs, and RBs should never be drafted in the 1st.

 

I really think that's a Rodgers thing, and I'm not trying to down anyone, but I believe that's at least a bit on him.

 

The first round needs to be divided between Colbert/Ben and Khan/Rotating Nonsense QB.

Colbert’s first round picks suffered because he fell into the trap of looking at the previous season result and saying “we’re just X position away from a SB”. Then forcing X position in round 1. It’s what he “had” to do in a sense.

Khan has lower expectations and is NOT paying QB top dollar. He’s got options to fill roster holes and doesn’t ONLY have Round 1 of the draft.

 

I like when Dave Bryan at the Depot does his "contextualization" posts on draft picks.

Dave seems to be pretty OCD and links video of lots and lots of plays here. All of Najee's explosive runs as a senior. All of Wilson's targets as a senior (he actually has 3 posts, the one linked here is as a senior, but he has other for his other two seasons at Michigan).

His one on Najee was spot on. Showed that basically all of his big runs were because that OL was amazing (I think all went to the NFL and 3x were 1st round picks). Average first contact was 10+ yards down field.

His one on Wilson showed that most of his big plays happened when there was very soft coverage (i.e. coverage playing way off) and he was in the slot.

 

I'm sure this is part of it.

I also think that he's bad against press coverage. I think most of his production at Michigan came in the slot with the defense playing off.

And IIRC Aazanni also talked about how he needs to learn how to get open off the line in the NFL.

 

I agree that the end of Colbert / Ben in Pittsburgh had them feeling pressure to draft more for need than a team should.

And the Shazier injury really hurt our roster construction.

 

Agreed on both.

Tuitt retirement also had an impact.

 

Go for it. Last 10 years who did the Steelers draft at the 3rd round or worse that proved to be an All Star WR?

2024 Roman Wilson
2022 Calvin Austin
2019 Dionte Johnson. (WR that just fell off a cliff)
2016 Demarcus Ayers

Last time the Steelers used a 1st round pick resulted in a game winning Superbowl Catch... 2006 Santonio Holmes 25th pick.

 

The teams always know more than the experts

 

Not narrowed down to just the Steelers or last10 years, which wasn't part of your original post, it's a fairly long list. You can look it up.