2012 Steelers Draft Analysis - My Write Up

I have completed my 2012 Steelers Draft Analysis.

It's rather long and can be found on my blog:

http://www.deljzc.blogspot.com

Comments always welcome (here or there)....

 

As always del, job well done. I concur that I too was puzzled by Spence pick?
I hope the Steelers forsee the transition from college ball to pro ball in him.
I do not at this point, again hoping that I am terribly wrong as I am also hoping
I am terribly wrong about Adams.

 

I agree it's a very good draft. Highest GPA score I've given.

The one thing about the Spence selection that makes it more forgivable (and I'm probably not alone in this) is the fact we got Ta'amu in round 4. If the Steelers had failed to land a nose tackle (let's say Ta'amu was previously drafted and Chapman was indeed off their board), then I think many of us would be harder on the Spence selection.

In some ways, since I would have gladly accepted Ta'amu as our 3rd round selection, I can talk myself into thinking of Spence as our 4th rounder and in that context, the pick becomes a more acceptable risk. I still would have preferred Ronnell Lewis as a "Buck" inside linebacker to eventually replace Larry Foote, but I am pretty sure Tomlin sees linebackers a lot differently than I do.

As with previous drafts, you can see specific decision makers' figure prints on certain selections. In fact, one of the benefits of getting rid of Arians was getting rid of his input on personnel decisions (I thought Arians was terrible at that). Haley seems MUCH better at talent evaluation (not only based on his time in Arizona but as head coach of Kansas City).

I thought long and hard about changing the Rainey selection to something else. But during the draft, I really was perplexed at who to take. I think I was leaning towards Cyrus Gray, but if I was in a room with Colbert, Tomlin and Haley, I could have easily been persuaded to Rainey.

Remember, there is not any issue with Rainey producing if he stays healthy. That is not a question. It's just if he can stay healthy enough to give us 10 touches a game at 100%. In my research, I was very encouraged to find 200 touches as a senior in the SEC. I don't ever expect him to get that as a Steeler (150 is max, even with returns) and I think he can handle that (crossing my fingers). I would even limit his touches in preseason to tell you the truth.

Frederick did make a hell of a lot of plays behind the line of scrimmage. He had 31 tackles for loss and 9 sacks in his career. For a 5'-10"cornerback, that's pretty damn good. And he's been a starter since his sophomore year, so he has experience. The problem is coverage. He got targeted like CRAZY in college. And when he gets downfield with receivers, he looks very awkward at times. I think it's going to be hard to scheme him close to the line of scrimmage and not tip our hand at what's coming. I don't know if it's Tomlin or Lebeau that like the "William Gay" type cornerbacks, but they appear here to stay.

 

Good write-up. I usually agree with you about stuff, but not to this degree. I pretty much feel the same about every single pick.

And you're very right about Ta'amu bailing out the Spence pick. I was furious with the pick, because I had already ruled him our for our system even though I loved him as a player. And the fact that we left both NTs on the board had me screaming at the tv. We just threw away a gift. Getting that gift anyway pretty much made it all melt away, and now I'm mostly just excited to see what Spence can do in the pros.

As far as initial draft grades go, they are always BS, but I can't imagine a draft appearing any better than this, so I have to give it an A. I don't remember a draft with so much value, and I don't remember a draft with so many needs hit (and in order!), and this draft had both.

DeCastro = A++
Adams = A
Spence = Inc (that's lame, so I'll say C)
Ta'amu = A
Rainey = A
Clemons = B-
Paulson = D-, no, F+
Frederick = C
Beachum = B-

I don't mind the Frederick pick as much as you. We have a roster spot open to be the #5 CB, and I would take a William Gay type to be #5 in the 7th. Maybe they don't care for his upside either, but have a ton of faith he will deliver what he's good at. I get that it's disappointing if they don't even try to hit a home run with a diamond in the rough, but I don't mind this route sometimes, especially with 4 7th rounders.

 

I'm okay with the Spence pick. With or without Ta'amu in the forth to bail him out. The kid can play. Might not have the measurables but the kid can play. Love love love the first 2 picks. I thought we would have gone RB earlier but can't complain with Rainey in the 5th. And Ta'amu if he pans out will be and absolute steal!!

I'll say it.. on paper this draft looks good. But what actually happens might be another story.

 

When I give the Steelers draft a GPA, I "weight" each pick according to it's Draft Value Chart value.

So the #24 pick (740 pts.) is worth over half of the Steelers total grade (total picks = 1351.6 draft value points).

The grades I give the 7th round picks have almost negligible value in the Steelers overall grade. Each 7th rounder is only worth 2 points on the draft value chart (if that).

Basically, a 1st round pick is the final and 7th round picks are Friday pop quizzes.

While I discuss each pick in a lot of detail and might not agree with them, those 7th round debates aren't effected the Steelers overall score that much.

 

There is not a single solitary pick that IMO was not a worthy gamble @ the slot taken.

DeCastro, puhleeze, quite simply the best pulling guard in the draft. Like the Pouncey pick, exactly what we need.

Spence is the Wildcard, so we'll see but he's a roving missile that can wreak disruption to any ball carrier. Great wildcard and a bit outside the box when DL wants to mix it up a bit. I actually THINK I see what he/they're up to with this one. I like this selection much better than a prior third round pick of Bruce Davis that did have me scratching my head a bit. We saw where that went but Spence is a different animal. He's all tunnel vision for the ball and can be used selectively in key moments. Not a every down back but definitively worthy for the disruption he can do in the zone.

The Adams pick is our highest gamble at this point. In fact, I would say the beauty of this line hinges on him being able to handle left tackle. Yet, when I look at his play capability, talent, and just pure "wing span", for what we need to do it ultimately falls into my "worthy gamble" category.

Rainey, for where we got him is worthy. He's so small we'll see if he can even handle the Ray Lewis's of this league. Never the less, this kid hits a corner and is gone! Look what he did @ Florida. Bottom-line, if he does nothing else but causes everyone to hold their collective breath on punts and kickoffs, win win win.

Ta'amu, well, if not Poe then quite simply Ta'amu and still, the Ravens nevermore!

Excellent draft_Solid A

 

AAA i liked the draft alot. top to bottom. the moo pick didn't sway the spence pick at all for me. i liked spence beore the draft. we were lacking speed on defense. the young DB's and spence and timmons will add a good bit. not only in the pass defense game but in the cut back run game pursuit. Moo will help this too. when casey was getting cut down at the line last year and creating a pileup causing the down the line pursuit to have to go around him essentially. spence is a quick play processer which gets him moving to the ball quicker then most. Moo in the middle should help if he can not get cut down from the backside. both of these things will help against teams like houston and the ravens and the run schemes they used against us. so both those picks will be of equal help to this young defense. i don't think we can rule out spence and timmons on the field at the same time. why would keith butler tip his hand until he sees the magic he may have? he may not be sure what all we can do with this talent yet.

paulson was the ? for me. i think they have some redzone possibilities with him though. he can get open and make the catch.

rainey. loved it. bug on the rug type guy. he can open up alot of things on the offense, because he will strap down a defense. they will have to account for him and not just with a LB'er.

love the 3 linemen we got. what a good looking line we have. WOW that felt good to say again.

fredrick , they saw something in him that they think they can use.

clemons i think is going to be solid.

they also drafted for brains. all these guys are pretty smart. athletic and smart is a good combo.

nice job del, thanks for doing it.

 

Here ya go...



Take your pick.

 

Horrifying...

 

nice avatar del
the write up is ok too

 

I think Terence Frederick just fit the traditional Lebeau 3-4 cornerback mold. Its the best fit for the scheme.

From what I have seen he likes to come up and tackle people. If you are a CB and are not a willing tackler you can't play for Steelers. Its the same deal with the guy we used to have, Donovan Warren. Dude wasn't fast, but liked to hit.

William Gay actually has speed over all of these guys, it was his reaction speed and instincts that were a bit lacking.

 

excellent write-up................ i was totally floored when decastro fell to us in the 1st.......... equally floored when we got adams in the 2nd...... the spence pick had me saying wtf over and over until i saw more of his game footage............. his game speed is clearly superior to his work-out speed, and he seems to be all over the place with a good nose for the ball......... i'm looking forward to seeing what the coaching staff have in store for him...............as i said, i was floored with the first 2 picks, but i nearly passed out when we were still able to get ta'amu in the 4th........... i thought for sure that he would be gone late in the 2nd or early in the 3rd......
i actually like the rainey pick...... he will bring an added dimension to the offense (think willy parker with actual hands)........ tony clemons will make the team and make solid contributions....... i'm not as down on paulson as you are...... i feel that he has a legitimate chance to make this team........ i also think that his impact won't be felt until next season though....................frederick will be on the practice squad, but will not see the field in a steeler uniform.............
i am very high on beachum though.......... i agree that he is a guard in the nfl.... i also think he has the skill set to challenge the current back-ups, at best he backs up the 2 guard spots until his game develops further...... at worst, practice squad.


btw..........
i'm also a big fan of your avatar!!!!!!!!!!

 

Del, I'm curious what you think of how Keenan Lewis played in 2011, and what you expect from him in 2012.

I haven't given up on him or anything, but I feel like I'm way more cautious than optimistic compared to everyone else. I think he still has room to improve and if he does he'll be fine, but if he plays this year like he played last year, it will get really ugly and the guys behind him will have to step in whether they're ready or not.

 

I agree with you.

I feel I haven't seen enough of Lewis at all to know for sure. He played a very "invisible" 363 snaps last year. And our nickle packages sometimes had him in as the 5th guy and others used Mundy as the 5th defensive back, so you can't just say our nickle defense was good/bad because of Lewis. And remember, it wasn't like our 3rd down defense was outstanding. We allowed 38.9% 3rd down conversions last year (19th in the league).

Honestly, I don't worry about our CB#2 much because I think this defense can survive with pretty average play from that position. If we can get to the Super Bowl with guys like Townsend, McFadden and Gay playing that spot, we can do the same with Lewis or Allen or Brown playing there. Maybe one of those three will surprise and far exceed what we're used to at that position, but I don't expect that. Nor do I really worry about it.

The key to our defense this year is keeping Harrison, Woodley and Polamalu on the field together healthy. I think we have great depth up front this year along the defensive line. And I think Lebeau/Tomlin will scheme away any inside linebacker issues. I guess you can worry about changing the "green dot" guy and losing Farrior's play calling, but I'll wait and see if that's really an issue.

We have not played with Woodley and Harrison together healthy for 12 straight regular season games. I think people really underestimate that effect on our defensive pressure packages.

 

lewis was also playing with some nagging injuries last year. i'll take a wait and see on him this year. defenses are going to change while the league changes to more passes, so we really have no choice but to wait and see. i really don't think we can go by what was done when townsend was here and equate it to this year. i know our defense better change with the times. i think the days of our old base zone defense will become a thing of the past unless alot of new wrinkles are put in place. we are getting younger and faster and that was needed.

 

I say if he struggles, forget The Lake Effect and just put Lake in.

 

I will add that I've always thought Lewis is a better fit outside the numbers as either a #1 or #2 CB. He never looked like a slot defender coming out of college to me like someone like Brown or Frederick look.

If Lewis' hamstring issues and nagging injuries are completely behind him, a swtich to outside might be his best chance.

Note, I still think my favorite long turn as our #2 (those currently on the roster) is Cortez Allen. He just looks bigger and more solid at the position and can be much more physical with receivers. He's still a bit raw at the position and in the system, but if Lewis struggles, he might get a shot.

 

Didn't Lewis play almost exclusively outside the numbers last year? If I'm remembering right they'd put Gay or Taylor in the slot. So I think the team agrees with you, and that's where he'll stay.

Brown and Allen are both slot-capable. I read somewhere, I think on Steelers Depot, that Curtis Brown was turning heads at OTAs, albeit in shorts. It may sound meaningless, but that's always where it starts. That was where the grumblings about Antonio Brown first started. I think Brown could develop into a Townsend type, eventually starting (after Taylor leaves) and then hopping inside to cover the slot in nickel.

With he and Allen both having good size and quick enough to stay in the slot, it'll be nice to have some versatility at the position.